Illinois Senate: Obama 48% Ryan 40%

In the Illinois campaign for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican Jack Ryan 48% to 40%. The survey was conducted for the Daily Southtown. A survey released yesterday showed that John Kerry leads George W. Bush in Illinois 48% to 43%.If Ralph Nader is added to the mix, Kerry maintains a five point lead, 46% to 41%

Fifty-one percent (51%) have a favorable opinion of Ryan while 36% hold an unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 48% favorable and 37% unfavorable.

Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) is viewed favorably by 47% of voters and unfavorably by 49%.

Ryan leads 47% to 43% among Illinois Investors. Obama leads 54% to 31% among those who do not invest.

Forty-four percent (44%) believe the Iraqi prisoner abuse reflects isolated events, while 36% believe such incidents are fairly widespread. Also, 58% of Illinois voters believe that Defense Secretary Rumsfeld should not resign. These numbers are similar to the national figures on the topic.

The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 12, 2004. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.

Oaklahoma:
Two words - TOM COBURN. Coburn is actually a bit too shrill for my taste, (and I grow tired of anybody, left or right, spouting off on how bad the Patriot Act is without explaining why, I think it's got a few parts that i'm not crazy about, but till somebody tells me something that even resembles coherence about it, I'm not gonna worry too much) but I'm excited about his candidacy because I think he'll smash Brad Carson.

Kirk Humphries isn't a terribly good candidate, and I was really worried about this race when it looked like he was going to be the guy. Within one month of being a candidate, Coburn is in a statistical dead heat with Carson . That's pretty impressive just to start out with, but the best part is, that he's running best in 'Carson's own district', because, as you may know, he was the Carson's predecessor in that district (which is currently the ONLY dem district in the state). So, basically, the places he has the most room to grow in are areas that are conservative anyway. With Bush at the top of the ticket, I think Coburn will keep this seat safe. (I will admit, however, that I sure wish J.C. Watts wanted this job)

Colorado:
OK, Bill Owens should be in this race. Oh well. Guess he's got family troubles or something. Similar to Oaklahoma, this race worried me when Bob Schaffer was looking like the nominee, but now that Peter Coors is in the race, I'm a lot less worried. I'm more worried about this then Oaklahoma, but still not all that worried.

I like Schaffer personally, and I wish he hadn't taken that stupid term limits pledge, but he's just not the guy to keep the seat from Salazar. Coors has the name ID, the good looks, and the cash. Salazar might have won his AG race comfortably, but when running for AG, you don't really have to talk much about your public policy on things like taxes or the war on terror, and he's got two choices: 1. run like the liberal he undoubtedly is, and thus lose because Colorado is a conservative state, or 2. Run like a conservative, and lose parts of his liberal base, and thus probably lose.

He might be able to pull one of these off if he had a lesser known, more poorly funded opponent, but with Coors, I'm not worried about it. Am I 100% confident in this race? No. But I'm not worried about it either.

Washington (my home state):
Ever since Jennifer Dunn said no to the race, I've basically thought this was a pipe dream. I no longer thing this is a pipe dream. I still think it's gonna be a tough race, but I'm tempted to call it a 50/50 shot at this point.

First off, Nethercutt is a great guy. In another state, I think he'd be a shoe in. He's a fierce campaigner, and he's 'extremely' smart. He's impossible not to like if you meet him, and he speaks very well. His background prior to entering politics is impressive, and he's got the right team to win this thing.

If this were all he had, I'd still think it was a pipe dream. But, now lets look at some numbers:

1. Murray's reelect: Hovering between 38-42% (!!!), which is the lowest for any incumbent in the nation.

2. Another number: Murray vs. 'Somebody New' = 41% Murray, 43% 'Somebody New'.

3. Heads up poll numbers: 41% Nethercutt, 50% Murray. This might not sound encouraging, but it really is for two reasons: 1. Most people still don't know who Nethercutt is, and this has gotten closer every time they have polled. and 2. When you poll only people who know who they both are, you wind up with basically 50/50.

Like I said, I'm tempted to call this a 50/50 shot at a win. At worst, it's a 47-53 shot at a win. Nethercutt's campaign is just getting started, and all said and done, I think he's prone to take the seat.

Anyhow, I'm much less confedent about Alaska and Illinois, but I still think we have a decent shot there. I also think we'll win North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, and probably either Florida or Lousiana, but probably not both. I also wouldn't be too flabergasted at winning at least one of the Wisconson/California/South Dakota races.

Time will tell, but all said and done, +2-4 GOP seats.

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