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Americans no longer need Turkish aircraft carrier
middle-east-online ^ | 6/25/2004 | Francis Curta

Posted on 06/25/2004 10:36:56 AM PDT by a_Turk

The United States and Turkey will try to ease strains caused by the war in Iraq before next week's NATO summit in Istanbul, but the strategic partnership they once shared is history, political analysts said.

US President George W. Bush, in an interview broadcast by Turkish NTV television on Friday, said he would use a brief visit to Ankara before the summit to "reconfirm... our country's understanding of the importance of our relationship" with Turkey.

But Mark Parris, a former US ambassador to Turkey, noted that, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the fall of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein last year, the United States no longer sees Turkey as a bulwark against international communism and militant Arab nationalism.

"It is difficult to envision circumstances today in which Turkey's contribution will be essential in the same way that it was in containing the USSR and Saddam," he said.

"Today things are different," Soner Cagaptay, an expert on Turkey researching at the Washington Institute in the United States, said in an interview.

There was "a bitter taste on both sides because of the run-up and aftermath of the Iraq war," he said, recalling parliament's unexpected refusal on the eve of the invasion to allow the United States to station troops north of Turkey's border with Iraq.

The Turkish government tried to make amends by letting the US Air Force use its airspace during the war and by helping with the supply and rotation of US troops.

But, faced with opposition from Kurdish members of the now defunct Iraqi transitional governing council, it had to abandon plans to contribute 10,000 Turkish soldiers to the US-led occupation force.

Bush is scheduled to arrive in the Turkish capital on Saturday and to hold talks with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other officials before heading to the country's largest city, Istanbul, for the two-day NATO summit, which starts on Monday.

In his television interview, Bush said he had "a good personal relationship" with Erdogan, but he is unlikely to revive the idea of a strategic partnership which marked a visit in 1999 by his predecessor, Bill Clinton.

Not only have the threats from the Soviet Union and Saddam's regime disappeared, the United States has also recently acquired military bases in many other countries, from the former communist states of eastern Europe to Afghanistan and Iraq itself.

"The Americans no longer need the Turkish aircraft carrier," said Resat Arim of the Institute of Foreign Affairs in Ankara.

A recent visit by a senior Pentagon official, Lincoln Bloomfield, to discuss the redeployment of US forces in Europe with Turkish officials prompted media speculation that US warplanes might be transferred to Turkey from Germany.

The government let it be known, however, that it did not want to change the terms of a 1980 military cooperation agreement which defined the limits of the use of US bases in Turkey.

Erdogan's government is unlikely to jeopardise the support it enjoys among the faithful in this almost exclusively Islamic country by moving closer to the United States at a time when US troops have been abusing Muslim prisoners in Iraqi jails.

Attitudes may also be changing within the traditionally pro-American Turkish military.

The arrest by US forces of several Turkish soldiers on a reconnaissance mission in northern Iraq left the suspicion that Washington has little interest in helping its NATO ally to strike at Kurdish rebels who have sought refuge south of the Iraqi frontier.

Bush tried to reassure Turkish television viewers that "Once we've declared a group a terrorist group we mean it" - a reference to Kongra-Gel, the former Kurdistan Workers' Party, which is banned in Turkey.

But he conceded that "right now, we're trying to protect ourselves and protect the new government (in Iraq)."


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: allies; istanbul; natosummit; turkey; usa

1 posted on 06/25/2004 10:36:57 AM PDT by a_Turk
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To: a_Turk

When Iraq is a stable, friendly democracy in the ME, a whole lot of things are going to change. For the better. One thing that will change is that we will have military options and the Turks will no longer have us over a barrel. Another thing that will change is that we have energy options and the Saudis will no longer have us over a different barrel.


2 posted on 06/25/2004 10:53:05 AM PDT by bondjamesbond (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: a_Turk
What is a Turkish Aircraft Carrier???

I can imagine it is to American Aircraft Carriers what Yugos are to American Cars...

It is something like 125 feet long, leaks like a sieve, has a 35hp 2-stroke engine and smokes like a Baptist deacon.

3 posted on 06/25/2004 11:36:14 AM PDT by Onelifetogive
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To: Onelifetogive

The Turkish aircraft carrier are the land bases in Eskishir and Incerlink.

Remember how the Turks turned down 17 billion dollars in aid for access to Iraq via the northern route.

Now its payback time.


4 posted on 06/25/2004 12:07:09 PM PDT by ijcr (Age and treachery will always overcome youth and ability.)
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To: ijcr; a_Turk; marron
Now its payback time.

Why, they didn't take the money.

There's still plenty of reason for alliance - ie when Iranian-backed "insurgents" start blowing up pipelines in Turkdy - but the USSR is gone, and the Iraqi no-fly zones patrolled from Turkey gone too. No reason for such a heavy air presence.

5 posted on 06/25/2004 12:12:54 PM PDT by Shermy
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To: a_Turk
Erdogan's government is unlikely to jeopardise the support it enjoys among the faithful in this almost exclusively Islamic country by moving closer to the United States at a time when US troops have been abusing Muslim prisoners in Iraqi jails.

Oh, please. Spare me the nonsense. When the chips were down, the Turks turned against us big time.

6 posted on 06/25/2004 12:21:23 PM PDT by Wolfstar (Next big battle in our war against Islamofacism? Here at home, 11/02/04. We can't afford to lose.)
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To: ijcr
After the First Gulf War about a million Kurdish refugees fled Iraq and made their way into Eastern Anatolia. Among them were many, many PKK cadrés. Terrorist attacks increased. Along with these constant attacks, the Turkish economy took a nose dive due to the sanctions against Iraq, once a major trading partner.

Bush I promised aid to Turkey in light of the grievous results of this economic warfare, but no details were agreed upon. Ultimately Turkey was allowed to sell more towels to the USA. This could not realistically be expected to offset the economic hardship caused by increased terrorism, masses of starving refugees, and the lack of Iraqi trade. Turks interpreted this as a broken deal.

This time around, with the attack on Iraq becoming more and more imminent, Turkey decided that she would send several tens of thousands of soldiers into Northern Iraq in order to ensure that there would be no repeat of what happened after the last war against Iraq, in terms of both economic and military security.

A proposed $8.5 billion loan was tied to a condition that Turkish troops not enter Northern Iraq due to, in all seriousness, congressional anxiety over "possible instability in the region due to a Turkish army operation." Turks found Congressional notions of stability interesting indeed, especially since it was felt in US Congressional circles that Turkish military action would not solve the terrorist organization Kurdish Workers Party - Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (PKK-KADEK) problem. There was a US government consensus that felt that new methods were needed against KADEK.

To make a long story short, Turks were willing to spend blood and treasure on a major invasion of Northern Iraq, thus destroying for once and for all a Communist insurgency and in the process form a strategic anvil to the US hammer.

Thus, I do not interpret these actions as being stabbed in the back by the wily, unscrupulous, and untrustworthy Turk. Instead, I see a lot of incompetent US geo-political theorizing and experimentation in the Bush administration based on the same sort of adolescent college dorm bull session world view which characterized the Kennedy and Johnson admnistrations during the Vietnam War, and which also characterized US policy during the Clinton administration.

Once again, as in Vietnam, we are proving our expert ability to snatch defeat from the very jaws of victory. Once again, countries fighting for their lives against Communism and worse are finding their hands tied by US policies which can have only one outcome: victory for the guerillas, and, like in South Vietnam, the victims are being blamed for the consequences.

7 posted on 06/25/2004 12:40:28 PM PDT by Mortimer Snavely (Comitas, Firmitas, Gravitas, Humanitas, Industria)
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To: Wolfstar

See post #7.


8 posted on 06/25/2004 12:50:33 PM PDT by Mortimer Snavely (Comitas, Firmitas, Gravitas, Humanitas, Industria)
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To: Mortimer Snavely; a_Turk; Shermy

Keeping in mind that no one knew how the war was going to go, if it would be a bloodbath, if the Iraqis would give stiff resistance, or collapse quickly, we wanted two things:

We wanted a northern front, and we wanted muslim troops to help with the occupation afterward.

Turkey was interested in occupying Kirkuk, but we wanted them in Tikrit. We wanted them to help in the combat against the Iraqi army in an advance on Baghdad, but they specifically did not want to take part in combat operations outside of Kurdistan.

So there was a real disconnect between what we hoped to get from them, and what they were willing to offer. That being the case, since the Iraqis collapsed even without a northern front fairly quickly, I think it has turned out better for everyone that the Turks stayed out of it. We still could have used 10,000 Turkish soldiers to help us occupy the Baath Triangle, but if they weren't willing, they weren't willing.

The best way to repair damage to the Turkish economy caused by sanctions was not to sell towels, but to put an end to them. The best way to do that was to put down Saddam once and for all.

It is a shame that Saddam drove the Kurds into Anatolia after Gulf War 1, but with the help of Turkish airbases we established the enclave that allowed the Kurds to go home. Turkey paid a high cost for living next door to Saddam, but that is not a debt owed by the US; it is an opportunity for friends to team up and do something about it. We did. The Turks helped up to a point, and then they didn't. That doesn't make us enemies, there is still opportunity to collaborate, there is still a lot of work to be done. I'm not sure what the Turks are willing to do.

I fully expect to see PKK reactivated to go after the Baku Ceyhan pipeline, the Saudis and Iranians have no desire to see that in operation. So the Turks may get their chance to kill more of them before its over.


9 posted on 06/25/2004 1:02:20 PM PDT by marron
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To: Mortimer Snavely

In an act of self emasculation the Turkish government rejected the US offer.

Were there strings attatched? Yes.Turkish forces were to assist after the war.

Did the Turkish government play the USA for suckers? Yes.The final demand for access to Turkish ports and roads to North Iraq was $25 Billion.

Did the Turkish leadership make promises they could not keep? Yes.Jacking up the pot in 5 card poker with only a pair of deuces, they promised access and then turned away the 4th ID.

Are Turkish bases required by the US? No. New bases are on stream in Iraq and in Georgia.

Were the Turkish government concerned about the prospects of a Kurdish Free State? Hell,Yes.Now the Turkish government has to sit and wait. When an 11 man Turkish Special Forces assassination team crossed into Kirkuk, US Green Berets sent them home.

The Turkish government had a chance to back the US. They chose not to....how sad! Now all that Turkey has in its future is bowing its knee to the EU.

Still, they make good Gastarbeiters in Germany! Cancel the terms, wily,unscrupulous, and untrustworthy and replace them with perfidious,ignorant, and high pitched.


10 posted on 06/25/2004 1:25:11 PM PDT by ijcr (Age and treachery will always overcome youth and ability.)
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To: All

It's hard to understand why we should go out of our way to piss off a traditional ally like Turkey.

I'd think we want friends wherever we can find them. The "we don't need you anymore" attitude is really stupid.


11 posted on 06/25/2004 2:19:14 PM PDT by jimt
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To: a_Turk

We should continue to stand with Turkey and count on them as an ally. You guys have been better to us than most of the other Europeans, and your loyalty didn't vanish with the Soviet threat like theirs did.


12 posted on 06/25/2004 2:43:20 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Get in the fight today: Freepmail me to get on your state's KerryTrack Ping list!)
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To: bondjamesbond

Iraq will never be a stable friendly democracy.


13 posted on 06/25/2004 2:56:44 PM PDT by MrLee
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To: ijcr
"When an 11 man Turkish Special Forces assassination team crossed into Kirkuk, US Green Berets sent them home."

Let's ignore the fact that those Turks had been there long before we were and had been keeping tabs on Kurdish terrorists. I wish that they in fact had been an assassination team, but the fact is that they weren't. The fact is that ignorant and idiotic actions like the hog-tying and blindfolding of these allied troops, and even more ignorant and idiotic support for these idiotic actions, are some of the reasons why I posted the following in #7:

"Once again, countries fighting for their lives against Communism and worse are finding their hands tied by US policies which can have only one outcome: victory for the guerillas, and, like in South Vietnam, the victims are being blamed for the consequences."

This attitude can be stretched all the way back to Kennedy, the Bay of Pigs, the assassination of Diem, and the like. With the sole exception of Reagan, the lesson of history is that, if you are a nation fighting for survival and come to depend on the USA, the odds are on that you will be left stranded on the beach, betrayed, thrown to the wolves and killed while grinning, amiable buffoons in the White House tut-tut the whole matter, and eventually describe the entire process as unfortunate, inevitable and unavoidable.

And there are always those who sit back and smile in fiendish glee at the trouble we cause. And this is supposed to be a conservative forum?

14 posted on 06/25/2004 8:49:14 PM PDT by Mortimer Snavely (Comitas, Firmitas, Gravitas, Humanitas, Industria)
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To: a_Turk; bondjamesbond; ijcr; jimt; Mortimer Snavely; Mr. Silverback; MrLee; marron; ...
Sorry for the length.
In his television interview, Bush said he had "a good personal relationship" with Erdogan, but he is unlikely to revive the idea of a strategic partnership which marked a visit in 1999 by his predecessor, Bill Clinton.
That accompanied Clinton's apology to Greece for US support for the former legitimate Greek dictatorship. In recent years (including and preceding 1999) there have been a series of related but unsolved murders of foreign nationals, mostly in Athens. I'm sure the police are working on it...
Greece Probes Police Links To Fascists
1997
AP
An investigation was launched last week after the nationwide broadcast of a videotape showing about 40 members of a police anti-terrorist group assaulting a man, apparently an Albanian immigrant. Made in 1993, it also showed the men lauding Greece's 1967-1974 military junta.

Two of the men in the tape were anti-terrorist squad leaders and both were immediately suspended.

Romaios said one organization believed to have ties to the officers was "Golden Dawn," a neo-Nazi group known for its hatred of Jews and foreigners.

Leaked to the press by a legislator, the tape increased concerns about anti-foreigner sentiments in Greece and anti-Semitism in the police force. Hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants, most of them Albanians, have been living here since the early 1990s.
Greece supported Serbia/Yugoslavia during the Clinton administration's bombing of the Chinese embassy and Kosovo...
Greece worries about Bush White House
Wednesday, December 13, 2000
Greece is quietly concerned that its relations with the United States will be downgraded under any presidential administration by George W. Bush. Greek officials and analysts said Prime Minister Costas Simitis is concerned that the Bush administration will upgrade U.S. relations with Turkey at the expense of Greece. This would mean new weapons sales to Ankara and a decrease in efforts to resolve such problems as the Cypriot crisis and the dispute in the Aegean Sea... A Bush administration, the Greek analysts said, would focus U.S. foreign policy on bolstering sanctions on Iraq. This, they said, would require the cooperation of Turkey, Iraq's northern neighbor, which has supplied an air base for U.S. fighter-jets.
What an irrational attitude... I mean, the Greeks have always been there for us, like in Kosovo -- oops!
Mark Parris, a former US ambassador to Turkey, noted that, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the fall of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein last year, the United States no longer sees Turkey as a bulwark against international communism and militant Arab nationalism... There was "a bitter taste on both sides because of the run-up and aftermath of the Iraq war," he said, recalling parliament's unexpected refusal on the eve of the invasion to allow the United States to station troops north of Turkey's border with Iraq. The Turkish government tried to make amends by letting the US Air Force use its airspace during the war and by helping with the supply and rotation of US troops. But, faced with opposition from Kurdish members of the now defunct Iraqi transitional governing council, it had to abandon plans to contribute 10,000 Turkish soldiers to the US-led occupation force.
US support for Turkey's entrance into the EU hasn't done any good (the original Turkish attempt to join the EEC dates from the early 1960s) and Turkey has very little to show for its support of the US, other than the fact that it was in Turkey's interest to support the US. Alas, Turkey is now transforming into just another Moslem dictatorship. There will not be a settlement of the Cyprus issue, because the settlement is hopelessly unsettled -- Cyprus doesn't need to be a unified government any more than Hispaniola does.
bondjamesbond -- When Iraq is a stable, friendly democracy in the ME, a whole lot of things are going to change. For the better. One thing that will change is that we will have military options and the Turks will no longer have us over a barrel. Another thing that will change is that we have energy options and the Saudis will no longer have us over a different barrel.

MrLee -- Iraq will never be a stable friendly democracy.
I agree with MrLee. Iraq, a stable, friendly, democracy? Never heard of that engineering principle -- "Good, Fast, Cheap, choose any two"? Nations don't have friends and relatives, they have interests. The interests of Iraq include continued membership in OPEC and all that implies. Iraq's democracy won't last, or it will -- but its devotion to OPEC won't change.
ijcr -- The Turkish aircraft carrier are the land bases in Eskishir and Incerlink. Remember how the Turks turned down 17 billion dollars in aid for access to Iraq via the northern route. Now its payback time.
The US will wind up in a Turkish quagmire, not an Iraqi one. Ultimately, the US will have to work with Turkey, in the same way it has had to work with Saudi Arabia -- which is the viper in the nest, supporting terrorists and mass murder worldwide.
Shermy -- Why, they didn't take the money. There's still plenty of reason for alliance - ie when Iranian-backed "insurgents" start blowing up pipelines in Turk[e]y - but the USSR is gone, and the Iraqi no-fly zones patrolled from Turkey gone too. No reason for such a heavy air presence.
I agree, no reason for such a heavy air presence -- after the overthrow of the theocratic despotate of Iran. But ijcr is saying "it's payback time" not because they didn't take the money, but because they reneged on the understanding that the bases would be available. I don't think the payback will be too severe, because the Kurdish question is still up in the air. Turkey and Iraq's new gov't will collude on the destruction of the Kurdish armed movements, which will be forced (again) to turn to Iran. The Shah used the Kurds in that way, Saddam did, it's an old game.
Wolfstar -- Oh, please. Spare me the nonsense. When the chips were down, the Turks turned against us big time.
Erdogan's also in the crosshairs, because he's merely a compromise candidate in the long run. Turkey will continue to lose control of its domestic security -- more bombings, more murders, kidnappings -- as Erdogan continues to dismantle his opposition among the armed forces. It would be better all the way around if Erdogan caught a bullet right now. Not that I'm advocating that of course.
Mortimer Snavely -- Turks found Congressional notions of stability interesting indeed, especially since it was felt in US Congressional circles that Turkish military action would not solve the terrorist organization Kurdish Workers Party - Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (PKK-KADEK) problem. There was a US government consensus that felt that new methods were needed against KADEK. To make a long story short, Turks were willing to spend blood and treasure on a major invasion of Northern Iraq, thus destroying for once and for all a Communist insurgency and in the process form a strategic anvil to the US hammer.
Nah. The Turks were going to do that precisely because they could do it, not to satisfy some US policy priority or the whim of Congress. Unless it leads to a Kurdish state, it's another sideways move. Iraq should have been dismembered into Shia, Sunni, Kurdish, and whatever else autonomous areas with a view toward independent statehood for each. Right now, Iraq has rejected any real role for the Kurds. So has Turkey. This plays into the hands of Iran. Once the US liberates Iran, however...
Mortimer Snavely -- After the First Gulf War about a million Kurdish refugees fled Iraq and made their way into Eastern Anatolia. Among them were many, many PKK cadrés. Terrorist attacks increased. Along with these constant attacks, the Turkish economy took a nose dive due to the sanctions against Iraq, once a major trading partner.
Had the US voters not elected Clinton to two terms, and brought on the pointless Balkan sideshow...
marron -- We wanted a northern front, and we wanted muslim troops to help with the occupation afterward... We wanted them to help in the combat against the Iraqi army in an advance on Baghdad, but they specifically did not want to take part in combat operations outside of Kurdistan... We still could have used 10,000 Turkish soldiers to help us occupy the Baath Triangle, but if they weren't willing, they weren't willing. The best way to repair damage to the Turkish economy caused by sanctions was not to sell towels, but to put an end to them. The best way to do that was to put down Saddam once and for all... Turkey paid a high cost for living next door to Saddam, but that is not a debt owed by the US; it is an opportunity for friends to team up and do something about it. We did. The Turks helped up to a point, and then they didn't. That doesn't make us enemies, there is still opportunity to collaborate, there is still a lot of work to be done. I'm not sure what the Turks are willing to do. I fully expect to see PKK reactivated to go after the Baku Ceyhan pipeline, the Saudis and Iranians have no desire to see that in operation. So the Turks may get their chance to kill more of them before its over.
FWIW, I like all of what you've said there.
ijcr -- Did the Turkish government play the USA for suckers? Yes. The final demand for access to Turkish ports and roads to North Iraq was $25 Billion... New bases are on stream in Iraq and in Georgia. Were the Turkish government concerned about the prospects of a Kurdish Free State? Hell, Yes. Now the Turkish government has to sit and wait... The Turkish government had a chance to back the US... Now all that Turkey has in its future is bowing its knee to the EU.
Well put. And...
Cyprus PACE vote spoils relations
Monday, 17 May 2004
Turkey may respond to Azerbaijan's failure to back it at last month's vote in Strasbourg on the Turkish Cypriots by abandoning its blockade of Armenia, maintained since 1993 in solidarity over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh. The vote was of paramount importance for Turkey and Baku has damaged its standing among Turks, who have been very sympathetic towards Azerbaijan.
Statement Of Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Of The Republic Of Azerbaijan
May 05, 2004
In regard to the nonparticipation of the part of Azerbaijani deputies representing, as a matter of fact, all political spectrum of Azerbaijan Parliament in the debates over giving to representatives of the Turkish community of Cyprus the right to participate in PACE meetings, no positions of the Azerbaijani deputies and their statements reflect those of the Azerbaijani Government, and they cannot be considered as a change in political course between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
German Political Foundations Make Enemies World Wide
Dateline: 28th January 2003
On 22 October 2002 the Turkish Attorney General instigated proceedings against four German political foundations operating in Turkey. They were accused under Article 171 of the Turkish criminal code of espionage, conspiracy and the undermining of the Turkish State. The German Political Foundations (every major party has one!) are classic corporatist organisations allowing big business and others to buy political power but to do it under the disguise of funding "research". These are overtly political organisations and cannot be compared with for instance the British Council (or the German equivalent, the Goethe Institute) which are cultural ambassadors... They all admit (see below in their statement) that they are promoting the deepening and expansion of the European Union - even in those countries like, Mexico, Turkey and Brazil which are thousands of miles from the centre of Europe! In Turkey these Foundations have made enemies, just as they have done recently in Ecuador, Brazil and Mexico, by promoting the power of the European Union and by promoting "ethnic groups" and "minority rights" inside other nation states. In Turkey the arrogance of the German State has met resistance and a criminal trial is under way - but not before the chief prosecution witness against the German Foundations was murdered! ...It is remarkable that even in their defence, the aggression of the German political class cannot be hidden. Indeed their defence is more of an attack and with every line takes on a distinctly threatening note.
Interesting, isn't it, that the groups attempting to destroy "capitalism" (free markets, democracy, personal liberty) also attack "globalism" -- and yet are in favor of permanent loss of sovereignty to a fascist oligarchy?
jimt -- It's hard to understand why we should go out of our way to piss off a traditional ally like Turkey. I'd think we want friends wherever we can find them. The "we don't need you anymore" attitude is really stupid.
Turkey supported the US in the Gulf War 15 years ago. As noted by Mortimer Snavely above, they participated in the sanctions against Iraq, but quit doing so well before 9/11.
At Iraq's Backdoor, Turkey Flouts Sanctions
by Douglas Frantz
March 30, 2001
Deep in the dusty southeastern corner of Turkey, closer to Baghdad than to Istanbul, a line of 200 aging tanker trucks stretches for half a mile along the highway as drivers wait to unload Iraqi diesel fuel at a depot run by the Turkish government. The trucks are returning from Iraq with full tanks on the last leg of a journey that openly flouts the United Nations economic embargo against Baghdad. It is sanctions- busting smuggling regulated and taxed by the Turkish government and tolerated by the United Nations and the United States. Estimates on the volume of Iraqi oil and diesel fuel passing through Habur Gate, the only legal crossing between Iraq and Turkey, range from $300 million to $600 million a year. Western diplomats calculate that the illicit business puts $120 million a year in the pocket of President Saddam Hussein... Western diplomats say the trade has increased as oil prices have climbed. They justify turning a blind eye because the money helps the battered economy in this volatile region of Turkey, an important American ally. The trade also is the chief source of income for northern Iraq's Kurdistan Democratic Party, which opposes Mr. Hussein.
Iraq to boost imports from Jordan to $1 billion
September 3 2001
Iraq has agreed with Syria and Jordan to increase annual imports from both nations, Commerce Minister Mohammad Mehdi Saleh said on Saturday... Syria and Iraq froze diplomatic relations in 1980 over Syrian support for Iran in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, but have recently stepped up their economic rapprochement. The two countries, now tied by a free trade agreement, currently have an estimated $500 million in bilateral trade. Meanwhile, Jordan currently exports around $450 million of goods to Iraq as part of the UN oil-for-food programme, which aims to lessen the effect of sanctions put in place over Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
IOW, Jordan will be ailing now. Look for Jordanian instability -- a ping-pong between unqualified Jordanian support for US policy and a dagger in the back to the US over policies likely to bring about rioting. During the Gulf War, the elder Bush promised loan guarantees to Israel in order to keep Israel from retaliating against Iraqi scud missiles, for fear that the UN-approved multinational coalition would fall apart. After the defeat of Iraq and the ending of its occupation of Kuwait, the US reneged.

Turkey and Israel are the only democracies in the region worthy of the name. In not too long a time, Turkey may be off that list, but that has nothing to do with US-Turkish relations.
Mr. Silverback -- We should continue to stand with Turkey and count on them as an ally. You guys have been better to us than most of the other Europeans, and your loyalty didn't vanish with the Soviet threat like theirs did.
I'd agree with that if it were, say, a few years ago. Not any more. I think the US needs to court Greece again, in order to show Turkey what its future without the US will look like, and use Cyprus as a carrot to lead Greece where we'd like it to go. The Turks are (and have been for some time) the cork in the bottle. Turkey is 65 million in population, and has an army bigger (over 600,000) than any in Europe apart from Russia. The Turkish invasion (really liberation) of Cyprus in 1974 was a swift operation into unfriendly territory over a strait of seawater. The Greek gov't has an air base there now, which is provocative at best, and a sitting duck at worst.
Mortimer Snavely -- Let's ignore the fact that those Turks had been there long before we were and had been keeping tabs on Kurdish terrorists. I wish that they in fact had been an assassination team, but the fact is that they weren't.
Kurds, unlike the ethnically undifferentiated Arabs who live in Israel, are actually an ethnic group. The border is porous. It's foolish to think that anything but an Ataturk-style genocide will end the problem. It makes more sense to build a Kurdish state out of the small amount of territory (where they live more or less by themselves) of the three or four countries (Turkey, Iraq, Iran, maybe Syria) involved. It would be landlocked, but full of a lot of what is now Iraq's oil. IOW, it ain't gonna happen. Instead, the three big players involved will continue to play "co-opt the Kurds" against each other.
Mortimer Snavely -- Let's ignore the fact that those Turks had been there long before we were and had been keeping tabs on Kurdish terrorists. I wish that they in fact had been an assassination team, but the fact is that they weren't.
The Turks need to be balanced, IOW, kept in check. One way is economic, through the various new pipelines. But Moslem despotates -- which is the direction Turkey is heading -- often operate in ways contrary to their own interests, viz, Sheik Yamani's observation that the 1973 OPEC embargo resulted in a massive increase in the world's proven reserves and ultimately to a free-fall in crude prices to (inflation-adjusted) figures below where they were thirty years ago.

The second way is through diplomatic and political means -- such as Kurdish issues and Cyprus. Both of those are also EU positions, and have so far resulted in a reduction in the number of capital offenses in Turkey which reduced those in order to clear an obstacle to joining the EU. Why would Turkey want to join the EU (besides economic reasons)?
Crossing the Bosphorous...to become part of Europe?
by The Globalist
Friday, November 01, 2002
Given that many Europeans think Turkey is too "Muslim" to join this hitherto "Christian" club, who would have thought that Turkey's pro-Islamist parties are some of the country's most outspoken advocates of EU membership? ...In December 1999, Turkey became the first Muslim country candidate for full EU membership. Before joining the illustrious club of the European Union, however, it will need to meet economic and political requirements... EU membership for Turkey would mean support from some of the world's largest economies -- and thus, over time, the promise of economic growth and prosperity. Little wonder then that around 70% of Turks are in favor of joining the EU... While the bulk of EU membership proponents in Turkey presumably hope for economic benefits, the country's religious conservatives have their eyes fixed on something else -- required democratic changes. This is precisely where Turkey's pro-Islamist politicians and activists enter into the EU debate... [T]he appointments of up to 80,000 clerics in the country are made by the government. In fact, Article 24 of the Turkish constitution states that "instruction in religion and ethics shall be conducted under state supervision and control." Women are not even allowed to wear head scarves in state offices or universities in Turkey. Naturally, many religious Muslims resent this... The country's pro-Islamist parties are the ones who have been pushing the hardest to get the democratic reform process going. Early in August 2002... [t]he Turkish Parliament approved a reform package containing far-reaching reforms... abolish the death penalty, allow the Kurdish minority to broadcast -- and teach -- in the Kurdish language. It also agreed to ease restrictions on the freedom of expression and the right to demonstrate. In addition, abolishing penalties for criticizing state institutions and other restrictive laws will enable the pro-Islamists to present their agenda more forcefully again... After all, on the EU level it would be impossible for Turkey to continue restricting religious freedoms. Article 10 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union states, that "everyone has the right to [...] manifest religion of belief." That would include wearing the scarf in state offices -- and other manifestations of religion in the state sphere.
France blunts German move on Turkish entry
by John Hooper in Berlin
Ian Traynor in Ljubljana
The deep divisions in Europe over admitting Turkey to the EU were thrown into sharp relief last night when it became clear that the German chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, had failed in a bold attempt to cajole France's president, Jacques Chirac, into backing early entry... Sources close to the talks, however, said the Franco-German proposal was for a meeting of EU states at the end of 2004 -and then only to discuss Turkey's progress towards achieving the membership criteria. The new government in Ankara, which wants the EU to set a firm date for the start of accession talks, would regard such an outcome as disappointing, if not downright humiliating... Michael Glos, a leading Christian Democrat, told MPs that "Turkey is neither economically nor politically ripe for entry into the European Union". He said an expansion of the EU beyond the Bosphorus would "destroy the European project".
Annan Hopeful on Settlement to Unify Divided Cyprus
by Elaine Johanson
The EU meets in Copenhagen December 12 and 13, to vote in new members... The European Union is expected to invite 10 countries, including Cyprus, to join the bloc in 2004... Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash has urged the EU not to jeopardize the peace effort by admitting a divided Cyprus. Mr. Denktash, who is recovering from major heart surgery, has yet to give the U.N. a clear answer on its reunification plan. The proposed settlement calls for two component states on Cyprus, joined under a rotating presidency. It also calls on the Turkish Cypriots to give up some of the territory they now claim... Cyprus has been divided since Turkey invaded the island in 1974, in response to a coup in Nicosia engineered by Greece. The prospect of EU membership is considered a big catalyst for a settlement, after many years of failed diplomacy aimed at reuniting the two communities.
Probably, many of these links have expired. Sorry for the length.
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent
posted to: a_Turk; bondjamesbond; ijcr; jimt; Mortimer Snavely; Mr. Silverback; MrLee; marron; Onelifetogive; Shermy; Wolfstar

15 posted on 06/26/2004 11:45:51 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: Wolfstar; Mortimer Snavely; marron; a_Turk
When the chips were down, the Turks turned against us big time.

One could say that. I don't know all behind it- pride, France's carrots over the EU, something else - maybe even bribes - why not, France and Russia was bribed.

But the fact is later they did want to send 10,000 troops to Iraq - no small amount, and the only country not committed before the war to do so. But the Kurds objected due to their own reasons, so it didn't come to fruit.

Very interesting all, wish we could learn more.

16 posted on 06/26/2004 12:32:01 PM PDT by Shermy
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To: SunkenCiv
Since I reject your underlying premise that the Kurds are a group of noble mountain warriors who'd rather be herding goats if it weren't for their fiendish Turkish neighbors, I must also reject your conclusion that a Kurdish state is a solution.

The proposed Kurdish Worker's Democratic People's Republic requires about a third of Anatolia, and to do that, the PKK has committed terrorist actions against Turkey for nigh on twenty years now. The Turks have been having their equivalent of 9-11 about three times a year for an awful long time, but through a paranoid, psychotic reversal of reasoning, they somehow are the villains in this conflict.

I am reminded of how the Viet Minh were portrayed as mere nationalistic agrarian reformers forty yers ago. The same mentality that doomed millions in Southeast Asia to mass graves and slave labor is at work here.

And this is supposed to be a conservative forum.

Kurds and Kurdistans

17 posted on 06/26/2004 8:58:32 PM PDT by Mortimer Snavely (Comitas, Firmitas, Gravitas, Humanitas, Industria)
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To: Mortimer Snavely
Self-determination is a conservative value.
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

18 posted on 06/30/2004 10:27:18 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Unlike some people, I have a profile. Okay, maybe it's a little large...)
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To: SunkenCiv
Self-determination is a Marxist-Leninist buzzword which has been used by every third-world totalitarian revolutionary movement since Lenin.

By using it, you reveal yourself as one bereft of any real historical awareness, as you do by using conservative and Leftist connotation words interchangeably. If you think that justice will be served by the creation of yet another Communist hell-hole which requires the destruction of our ally, then you have some serious ideological conflicts the resolution of which are far beyond the ability of members of this forum to resolve.

19 posted on 06/30/2004 11:06:44 PM PDT by Mortimer Snavely (Comitas, Firmitas, Gravitas, Humanitas, Industria)
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pretty sure this is my longest FR post to date:

Americans no longer need Turkish aircraft carrier
Posted by SunkenCiv to various
On News/Activism ^ 06/26/2004 11:45:51 AM PDT · 15 of 19
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1160194/posts?page=15#15


20 posted on 03/25/2005 12:01:21 PM PST by SunkenCiv (last updated my FreeRepublic profile on Sunday, March 13, 2005.)
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