Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Free Republic Community:
Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !
It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...
Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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Thanks for posting the map, even though it confirmed my worst fears -- our son lives in Melbourne Beach across Highway A1a from the ocean.
Definitely time to board up the house and get out of Dodge!
My daughter and I really get into watching the storms and we've been saying the same thing, CAT 5 at landfall.
We're on a golf course. Wonderful view, but two problems, IMHO. One is the trees, the other is that those clay roof tiles on my neighbor's house across the course have plenty of open space to pick up speed before they hit my picture window, LOL!
Frances has double and based on the microwave image above, possibly triple eyewalls....don't expect Cat 5 anytime soon. Also pressure at 8AM advisory was up a little to 937....
LOL
We have a lot of potential projectiles in our neighborhood too. I really wonder if it would be worth the effort to bring all the planted pots in, guess I will but that will be last on the list.
There's a precious lady across the street, divorcee alomst ready to retire schoolteacher and she won't leave because of her cats. I love animals but I don't think she should jeopardize her future as a possible grandmother for them.
Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 30a
Statement as of 8:00 am AST on September 01, 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Frances heading toward the Bahamas...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas...
which includes Acklins...crooked...Inaguas...Mayaguana and
Ragged Islands...and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the central Bahamas which
includes Cat...Exumas...long islands...Rum Cay and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay.
At 8 am AST...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located
by a reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.4 north...longitude
69.1 west or about 130 miles... 210 km...east of Grand Turk island
or 780 miles...1260 km...east-southeast of Palm Beach Florida.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr.
This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease
in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...the
core of the hurricane will be passing near or over the the Turks
and Caicos Islands...and the southeastern Bahamas during the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts....a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected during the
next 24 hours...Frances could still intensify a little more before
reaching the Hurricane Warning area.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft was 937 mb...27.67 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are possible
over the Dominican Republic today.
Large and dangerous waves are possible along the north coast of
Hispaniola...and swells generated by Frances will affect portions of
the southeastern coast of the United States today.
Repeating the 8 am AST position...21.4 N... 69.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure...937 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.
Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 30
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 01, 2004
reports from the latest Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
monitoring Frances show maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb of 123
kt...down a little from the earlier flight. However...the central
pressure has dropped to 935 mb. Based on this...the initial
intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory. The WSR-88D at San
Juan shows that Frances has concentric eyewalls...and the aircraft
data shows three concentric wind maxima. Indeed...on the latest
pass through the southeastern quadrant the highest wind was in the
maxima associated with the outer eyewall.
The initial motion is a wobbly 285/15. Frances remains on the south
side of a subtropical ridge which large-scale models forecast to
weaken somewhat over the next 72 hr. This should allow the
hurricane to move west-northwestward in the general direction of
the Florida Peninsula. Dynamical model guidance agrees with this
scenario...except for the GFDL which continues to call for a
unrealistic looking motion toward the northwest. The official
forecast through 72 hr is shifted a little west of the previous
track based mainly on the initial position and motion and is on the
left side of the dynamical guidance. After 72 hr...there is
divergence in the guidance as a shortwave ridge develops north of
Frances over the eastern United States. The official forecast
track for that time is shifted to the southwest of the previous
track...although not as far as the UKMET which marches Frances
westward across central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The intensity forecast is modified only slightly from the previous
package. Upper-level winds are favorable through at least 36-48
hr...so Frances should remain strong. A slight weakening is
indicated at 72 hr based on land interaction and some possible
westerly shear. The main controlling factor on intensity will be
the structure of Frances and concentric eyewall cycles...both of
which are difficult at best to time. Given the current structure
of the hurricane...changes in intensity will likely be relatively
slow to occur.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/0900z 21.2n 68.5w 120 kt
12hr VT 01/1800z 22.0n 70.6w 125 kt
24hr VT 02/0600z 23.2n 72.9w 125 kt
36hr VT 02/1800z 24.3n 74.8w 130 kt
48hr VT 03/0600z 25.5n 76.6w 130 kt
72hr VT 04/0600z 27.0n 79.5w 125 kt
96hr VT 05/0600z 28.5n 81.5w 85 kt...inland
120hr VT 06/0600z 31.0n 84.0w 35 kt...inland
whoops, hit the 5 am discussion again... oh, well...
Lord have Mercy...I'm startin to git a big knot in my stomach..thanx for the info Rebelbase and everyone..my brother lives in Jacksonville,over on the west side,around 103rd street..I started praying yesterday..time to start praying without ceaseing..Lord have Mercy on all of those in the path of this storm.
Amen! I know I have been! I pray that those who just went through a storm down south of here will be spared from this one.
Hurricane season started too early for me. I'm a Database Admin for a company that has offices in Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando and Jacksonville Florida. Have to grab database backups every time these things rampage through.
I'm in Orlando. I'm not stocking up yet, though. Even though the most likely path has it coming thru us, all that means is that it's the path that's more likely than any other. It's still not a more likely than not situation, though. The storm is still 4 days away, and that's a long way.
With Charley, they told us that it was going to hit Tampa all the way up to the day before it hit. They missed by almost 200 miles.
I'm an insurance adjuster, and I just got back from Ft. Myers working Condo claims after Charlie. I was amazed how many people do not know their neighbors, even next door or in the other two units of a 4-unit condo building. Half of the the condo owners don't live there this time of the year and about 10% of the ones who do hadn't made it back from evacuating after 7 days. However, most of the people who did know their neighbors had keys to their neighbors' units and had gone in after the storm to check on any damage. Just because water did not pour down through the roof of one unit doesn't mean it didn't in the one next door, and 7 days of wet carpet and pad in a closed condo unit can smell pretty bad, even next door.
General, Sir:
THANK YOU for the Frances Thread.
My Demented Sister and her brood live in the Brandon/Valrico area. Missus and I used to work at the Mouse during the Andrew days, until we relocated back north; lived in the Claremont area.
Sis made it through Charley okay, but she reports the economic damage has been horrific. She works for Publix, and described 3rd-world conditions down there.
I was not on Guard Standby for Charley. I might just be for this one.
" Amen! I know I have been! I pray that those who just went through a storm down south of here will be spared from this one."
That's a big 10-4 !!
Tomorrow? What storm are you watching? More like sometime Saturday. This hurricane's landfall is still 3 days away. They kept telling us Charley was going to hit Tampa up until an hour or two before it came ashore 200 miles south of there.
People are discounting a "Floyd" path and to tell you honestly, weather conditions may agree, but the prediction accuracy of all these "weather pundits" has been downright dismal all year long and a lot can happen in 72 hours. Look again at where this hurricane is located as of this morning. That's a long ways away. Then go back to previous hurricanes and track their paths. Follow the track of Hurricane Dennis (Dennis preceded Floyd) and show me a forecaster that accurately predicted that storm.
Stay safe.... but keep an eye out for the Gray Man.
OK, I still find this astonishing that people think that Tampa is some insanely huge distance from Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. They're close to each other.
The actual distance from Punta Gorda to the NHC forecast landfall position in Tampa Bay the night before the day of landfall, was only a little over 50 miles, not "200 miles." Tropical prediction wise, that's right next door.
And given the angle of approach from the SW even the precise NHC forecast track was going to go right by Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte.
It seems to be both media imbeciles, and local residents of Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte that want to blame their lack of preparation on anyone but themselves that seem to have moved nearby Tampa Bay to the far side of the moon, distance-wise.
Safe travels for all evacuees.
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