Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Free Republic Community:
Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !
It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...
Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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We have a high pressure system over us that has been keeping Frances moving W to WNW.
If the pressure system weakens, the storm moves further up the Florida SE coast, potentially all the way to Jacksonville.
If the pressure system gets stronger, it will move the track more W and into the tip of Florida (think Keys, Miami, Homestead)
If it weakens, depending on how much, it moves over SE Florida into the Gulf.
That is at least what local Miami weather is stating.
Atlantic, [One hour later than Eastern], not Alaskan. You've been had!
That's also what happened when Andrew hit. Reports kepts saying it was going N and it didn't. Nobody really knows where it will hit until the day before or the day of impact.
Because of this, my area (Homestead) is getting ready for the potential of landfall near us or the most likely senario, that we will get a good portion of the storm over us.
Actually, it could also be the Atlantic Time Zone. I guess it depends on knowing when the picture was actually taken. Atlantic Time Zone is one zone east of the east coast.
Historically, Cat. 4 & 5 storms (since 1886) at this time of the year, go to FL. or turn north into the sea.
I think the best we can hope for at this point is going out to sea.
Quite honestly, I don't expect this girl to hit you. However, it could, so it's important to have wood. Be Seeing You,
Chris
I just looked at the probabilities map. The map shows that Orlando is right in the middle of the probable path. On the other hand, it shows that the likelihood of it going thru Orlando is only 10-15%, which is the same probability that the map gives to every place along the coast, all the way from Miami to Jacksonville.
Now for a little "gallows humor." At least I won't have to worry too much about tree damage. Charley took out most of my trees two weeks ago.
I agree.
As of last night, the NHC was predicting landfall near Jacksonville and now that has shifted south again.
I expect the landfall point will likely change agin but you're definitely doing the right thing by being prepared. Good luck to you.
I'm in Palm Bay and the channel 6 weather guy was on the radio (Monsters in the Morning 104.1) and he is evacuating his family to Atlanta.
Anyway, he said that Frances should get to a cat 5 and he is praying it goes back down to a cat 4 by landfall. But all things point to a southern Brevard landfall and our wiggle room for it going somewhere else is closing fast he said.
There hasn't been a report of landfall probability south of Sebastion Inlet in 3 days.
I'm in Port St. Lucie, each mile counts.
I don't even look at the probability maps except to see if Miami shows up on them. I figure it this way, according to the NWS discussion, the track is West and South of the official track, that puts it closer to me. Anyone living along the East coast of Florida would be foolish not to prepare for this one.
One thing is pretty certain, there is nothing in the atmosphere to keep this bad boy out to sea. It will hit, and most likely Florida. Where though is the big question.
I hope it stays out to sea and fizzles, I'm just to realistic to believe that.
Somewhere out there is a product which shows the plots of several of the different predictive models on one map. Does anyone have a link to, or lead on, where I can access that product?
There is still wide disagreement between the models about what happens when Frances gets near the coast. GFDL and AVN bring it up the Savannah River and over Aiken SC in 120 hours or so (GFDL has so far been persistent about a South Carolina landfall). NOGAPS takes it across South Florida and back into the Gulf and up toward Mobile, AL. The UKMET run brings it across Central FL in almost a straight line and it ends up at the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Everybody in the southeast should be paying close attention to this storm, and getting prepared to bug out if necessary -- it has the potential to be real monster. Very few people around here thought that Hugo would be able to cause the damage around Charlotte and Hickory that it did. That thing surprised us all.
That track would bite.
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