Men Enough to Admit We're Wrong- But We Don't Think We're Wrong On This Issue

www.crushkerry.com ^ | 9/28/04 | www.crushkerry.com

[crushkerry]

Since June, we here at crushkerry.com have railed on the Bush-Cheney “flip-flop” message strategy. We’ve been a lone voice crying out in the desert. Meanwhile, fellow Kerry Crushers, FReepers, and even some of our blogger colleagues have accused us of smoking banana peels. And today’s Washington Post-ABC News poll seems to prove our critics right. Well … we’re men enough to admit when we are wrong.

But after looking at the number we still don't think we're entirely wrong. There's no doubt that the $100 million spent on the "flip-flop" stuff was effective in laying the groundwork that made the Swift Boat Vets $100K initial ad buy so effective and started the Kerry death spiral in motion. But we think the numbers back up our conclusion that the good poll numbers for George W. Bush are more a result of the his effectiveness than Kerry's schizophrenic positions.

To begin with, we hold that Kerry is losing to Bush not because of the Iraq issue at all, but rather on the family of issues collectively referred to as “the economy and jobs.” In fact, The economy and jobs is the single biggest issue in the minds of registered voters in the WaPo poll. (The war in Iraq is third.)

And when it comes to that issue, registered voters trust George W. Bush over John Kerry to do a better job, by a margin of 48% to 43%. this is significant because historically it has been the Democrat that has had the advantage on economic issues - at least in polling data.

Now, we will concede John Kerry has been successfully painted as someone who has not presented a clear and decisive position on key issues. And there is no doubt this has hurt his credibility on a wide swath of issues, especially Iraq. But according to the same poll, this quality is important only to 7% of registered voters.

Most swing voters in America will vote on the economy, and President Bush’s dominance in the “economy and jobs” issues matrix is the key to his substantial and durable lead. Further, fewer folks view President Bush as decisive on Iraq than view him as decisive on the economy. If, as our critics argue, decisiveness is the key issue (a point we will grant only to make this rhetorical counterpoint) than it helps Bush more on the economy than it does on Iraq.

Here’s another thought our critics and the Washington Post ought to consider. John Kerry’s indecision in not the main reason that's causing the president’s spike in the polls. Rather, we think it's the fact that George W. Bush has simply done a pretty damn fine job as president - especially in the war on terror - and folks are feeling okay with things right now. If voters didn't feel safe with him as President in these troubled times, then none of the other issues would matter. They would be background noise, which seems to be what is happening with Kerry right now. He can't leap teh first hurdle any post-9.11 President has to jump - making people think he'll protect them.This conclusion is backed up by the poll result showing voters feel “much” or “somewhat” safer now than they did immediately after 911 and the fact that they feel, by a 17 point margin that the President will keep them safer than Kerry.

Thus we think the main reason behind the Bush surge isn’t because of his decisiveness or John Kerry’s serial indecision on Iraq. While that has an effect, as we've noted above, we think his surge is mainly the result of the president’s ability to make people feel safe and his recent domination of economic issues even though many Americans view the economy with a skeptical eye. Someday we think people will recognize our knowledge and insight here will turn out to be correct. But our guess is today is still not the day, which is fine. We can wait for the laurels.

Anywho, bashing Kerry on “flip-flopping” sure can be fun, and if not for that we would not have had so much fun over the last few months. Nor would other like minded bloggers.

One other thing stands out in the Washington Post article about the poll. Big Media has an annoying way of presenting dyed-in-the-wool Kerry supporters and “swing voters.” It’s a trend that has been noticed and reported on by our friends at Polipundit and elsewhere. Today, the Post portrays a high school teacher (read: union thug) and a volunteer for the Kerry campaign as “swing voters.”

If John Kerry doesn’t yet have public school union goons and his own volunteers wrapped up, we’re looking at a landslide.

[crushkerry]

Well, freepers, share your thoughts.

[crushkerry]

Ping

[hawaiian]

The perception of Bush as a "strong leader" and Kerry as weak is a direct result of Kerry's flip-flopping. Crushkerry people need to just admit they're wrong on this --- no big deal. They look stupid trying to defend it.

[crushkerry]

Thanks for the input. Funny line - "Crushkerry people". We should run a contest to have readers and freepers define that. Thanks for reading.

[Wild Irish Rogue]

In honor of Kerry's new skin tones, you should temporarily rename yourselves- orangecrushkerry.

[Dems_R_Losers]

I disagree with your conclusion. When an incumbent is running for reelection, the voters have a two-step process: first, they decide if they like the job the incumbent has done or not; if the answer to the first question is no, then they decide if the challenger is an appropriate replacement. Clearly, if half or more of the people think the country is on the wrong track, (and that number has not moved very much in many months of polling), that means they have answered No to the first question, and have moved on to the second. The masterful job done by the Bush campaign in defining John Kerry as an indecisive, unlikable flip-flopper has clearly led to many voters deciding that Kerry is simply not an acceptable alternative to President Bush, even if they think Bush has not done a job that overall merits a second term. Serious times demand a serious President, and the Bush team have made Kerry into an unserious candidate. It's one of the best campaigns I have seen in my lifetime.

[Alia]

I think the analysis is correct: Reality talks; bs walks...

President Bush has done a good job these past 4 years. I've reviewed his inaugguration speech -- he's kept his promises.

[Hans]

'OrangecrushKerry' sounds delightful.

[crushkerry]

Very solid argument. Here's where I disagree w/ you a bit. I don't think you can do a 100% tie-in of the "wrong track" number to the question of whether or not they don't think Bush has done the job. The "wrong track" people don't necessarily, IMO, have to think it's the fault of the President.

Note that we do not totally discount the "flip-flopper" attacks as worthless. We do admit that they laid the groundwork that made the Swifty ads so effective. Kerry's response, or lack thereof, also is a factor. But our opinion remains that Bush's good numbers now are more attributable to his performance and the ability to make people safe.

See it's constructive arguments like this that make FR such a great place.

[Christian4Bush]

BUMP!

[Alex Murphy]

In honor of Kerry's new skin tones

Tan, rested, and ready?

[ArmyBratCutie]

I was just reading my email from ya'll and here you are!!
I agree that President Bush is a strong leader and basically thats the reason he'll win, but I think "flip-flop" has been a great gimmick line, tho true, because its audio and you hear it over and over.... "do you hear me now" ...

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

John F. Kerry
Timeline of a traitor.
Click Here

READ THIS INTERVIEW THAT KERRY GAVE in 1970
KERRY GAVE AID AND COMFORT TO THE VIET CONG

Harvard Crimson : Kerry refused order to destroy Viet Cong village

http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=352185

Published on Wednesday, February 18, 1970
John Kerry: A Navy Dove Runs for Congress

By SAMUEL Z. GOLDHABER

Crimson Staff Writer

"...One time Kerry was ordered to destroy a Viet Cong village
but disobeyed orders and suggested that the Navy Command
simply send in a Psychological Warfare team to be
friend the villagers with food, hospital supplies,
and better educational facilities."

Free online version of
Kerry's "The New Soldier"
You can read it online right now.

[Warren]

Kerry was overheard saying he flops but never flips.

[lilylangtree]

The flip-flopping makes for a great foundation. I believe the swing voters are visualizers and talking to your friends or neighbors type of person. In other words, these people need to see the idea conveyed differently whether on tvs or billboards. Not all people play with a computer or even want to or have time to read the papers. That's why tv or billboards can't be missed and hammers the idea home. Then following the flip-flopping with the Swift Boat advs. I've only seen one Swift Boat ad. It was on tv and occurred several weeks ago, but I was duly impressed. My first thought was "what a powerful statement."

[N. Beaujon]

Tan, rested, and ready?

It's sprayed on in a booth!! The only left to expose the real John Kerry is the skirt.

[Indie]

My Thoughts: The fact that there are so many MORONS/SHEEPLE in this country that would actually vote for this POS and the marxist causes he represents, actually scares the hell out of me and for my children's future, and since they breed like roaches, it will only get worse.