Why You Shouldn't Stay Home
Registered voters in Ohio (near end at link): about 7.7 million
Predicted turnout: 25%
Estimated total votes: 1.93 million
Mike DeWine's Vote Total in 1994's contested Senate primary (rounded): 422,000 (52% of the vote; other challengers -- Bernadine Healy-264,000; George H. Rhodes-43,000; Gene J. Watts-83,000; Total votes-812,000)
Total US Senate votes cast in 1998 GOP Primary (rounded): 752,000 (544,000 for George Voinovich; 208,000 for his challenger)
My topline estimates:
- Voters using Republican ballot: 1 million (based on relative number of strongly contested races compared to Democrats, you would expect more than 50% of voters to vote in the Republican primary)
- Ballots in the GOP US Senate race: 850,000 (many who do not know enough about DeWine's challengers will vote for no one)
- Predicted Vote Total of 2006 GOP Senate Primary Winner: 360,000
Pierce for Senate!
