Posted on 12/13/2006 1:03:08 PM PST by Strategerist
Updated: 06:15 UTC on 13 December 2006 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930 was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December). The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on 15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Warning **
Note that it's not possible for there to be a specific time to be predicted to go outside - the Coronal Mass Ejection has to hit, and THEN the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has to turn the right way -that could be anywhere from sometime tonight (Eastern time) through tomorrow night.
Don't be misled by it saying that the "optimum conditions" are near local midnight -that's IF there is a display - however, it's possible that you could see absolutely nothing at midnight tonight, and have a really bright aurora visible in the same location at 3AM in the morning. However the moon screws things up a bit after midnight.
However there's a satellite that gives about an hour warning of an impact, and a couple of sites that give real time estimated auroral extents. I'll post if I see anything.
If you want to see the estimate of the current auroral oval, these sites show them - just find where you live and be sure to go outside if it's clear and the oval has reached your location:
http://www.analemma.de/english/auranews.html
http://kate.nic.ualberta.ca:8000/portal/rt_oval/index.html
Interesting!
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html
Here's another.
Cool a combination of the Geminids meteor shower and the aurora would be great.
>>Cool a combination of the Geminids meteor shower and the aurora would be great.<<
And for the cherry on top, we could get an alien invasion!
NFM of course (Not From Mexico).
I've wanted to see one of these all my life. I'll be keeping watch; clouds are moving in currently, hopefully, they'll pass on by just as quickly. Thank you, Strategerist!
I want to see it too!
Saw one (1) Geminid last night in half an hour of observing. It was a short arc, bright, and fast. Probably the meteor entered the atmosphere nearly vertically. The last quarter moon did not affect observation at all. Some diffuse, faint auroral glow as usual.
marked
I saw the aurora borealis once when I was I child and I seem to remember that it was moving, like in rippling waves. Is that right?
IIRC last year was cloudy for the Geminids, but 2 yrs. ago they were terrific.
They held my wife's attention, and her attention span for this type of event is about as long as a flea whisker.
It was common to see several at a time. and often.
Like window curtains in a soft beeze-awesome!
Sometimes it moves like a curtain, and then it often has other color than pale green. The more it moves the more vivid the colors. It is not true that seen one, seen 'em all.
Last month, was it the Leonids? they were really fast. I saw one only, and it went completely across the sky so fast it was hard to see which way it went. It was more a white line than a moving object.
I remember seeing this as we drove I-35 from Mpls to Iowa back in the 80s. It was shimmering green.
I am sure you see alot. I saw my first in 2003.
I am in North Carolina so they are a rare treat here.
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