Mr. Marston Predicts McCain-Palin 309 Obama-Biden 228

Marston Chronicles ^ | 11-3-2008 | Paul N. Marston

[Frantzie]

MCCAIN-PALIN 310 OBAMA-BIDEN 228

For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.

[Frantzie]

This gentleman has 45 years in politics including running campaigns and interpreting voter data.

He calculated how many PUMAs are need using the iffy RCP polls which favor Obama (no Bradley or Brady/NRA effect plus over sampling). The number of PUMA's need to win key states are very low.

I took his numbers and calculated the percentage of PUMA's needed to switch out of all state voters. He shows it in numbers of voters. I took the number and divided the total by PUMA's needed. I am in FL and we need 0.08% more in PUMA's votes? Seems like it should be a easy slam dunk considering O got 32% of the vote in the primary plus Jewish voters and lots of Blue Dog Dems in FL.

FL 0.08% OH 1.6% VA 2.2% CO 2.8% NV 3.1% NM 3.6% PA 3.8% NH 5.3% WI 5.5% MN 4.9%

I think his methodology is as good if not loads better than Rove's Black Box. Note he is on RCP but needs 10 votes to get on the front page so maybe Freep it.

[Frantzie]

Whoops. Moderator please edit Obama electorial votes to 228. My mistake. Thanks.

[Pantera]

Wow 2229!!! This will be a landslide for Obama. I gues he is packing the electoral college too with Acorns help.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

There sure are a lot of electoral votes when you count all 57 states, eh? :)

[jrooney]

My understanding is he has NEVER called an election wrong. We will see soon if that is true. I think he is right.

[word_warrior_bob]

Worst case scenario:

McCain with 311/312 Electoral Votes

[Skooz]

Does Mr Marston also predict the annexation of Canada, Mexico, the Bahamas and Argentina to produce Obama’s 2229 electoral votes?

[Perdogg]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2114385/posts

McCain 309(50.3%)
Obama 229 (49.5%)
Barr 0
Nader 0
Baldwin 0
McKinney 0

[olivia3boys]

LOL. Funny for a tense day. Helps.

[frankiep]

I was going to ask if Obama gets his 2229 Electoral Votes from all 57 states.

[Intimidator]

This is a laugher, bookmarked so I can watch the temper tantrum meltdown after tomorrow

[2ndDivisionVet]

Search is your friend: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2124045/posts

...already posted, and welcome to Free Republic

[Texas4ever]

Only 24 hours and we will know....Anything can happen.

I am thinking Obama will win the popular vote and McCain will win the Electoral....This will be a huge problem and I pray it doesnt start riots...so we must brace ourselves.

I do believe McCain can win.

[Texas4ever]

Only 24 hours and we will know....Anything can happen.

I am thinking Obama will win the popular vote and McCain will win the Electoral....This will be a huge problem and I pray it doesnt start riots...so we must brace ourselves.

I do believe McCain can win.

[BobbyT]

Well if ACORN was a little too generous with the cigarettes, an extra million non-existent votes in the 15 states they’ve been busted could very well put him at 2229 electoral votes...

Yes we CAN hit 115% turnout in Philly!

[word_warrior_bob]

There sure are a lot of electoral votes when you count all 57 states, eh? :)

________________

Freudian slip, he was referring to the 57 Islamic States. The Unites States would make 58 for him.

[Evil Slayer]

Hit abuse button to get the moderator much faster.

[mlocher]

Wow 2229!!! This will be a landslide for Obama. I gues he is packing the electoral college too with Acorns help.

That, and states 51 through 57 have a helluva lot of electoral votes in them!

[Frantzie]

Any more on that? He seems like he knows his stuff.

[mlo]

Every time he does an update this gets posted several times.