I’m totally in favor of Palin taking her best shot at the nomination. If she can beat down the establishment punks/rinos and wins the nomination that’s fine by me. One thing I know for sure is that she’ll be in it to win. She’s fearless and will hammer the marxist chump on Wright, Ayers, Obamacare, Cap’n’Tax and that world tour apologist-in-chief bullsh!t. Go get it Sarah and give it your best shot. I’ll be there crawling over broken glass on election day if that’s what it takes.
Folks this is how you have to look at the 2012 Presidential election:
1) When a sitting POTUS vies for a second term it is always a referendum on his first four years in office and NOT the challenger.
2)If Obama’s job approval number goes above 51% with Gallup (due probably to a vast improvement in the economy) he will win a second term going away; if his job approval is below 47% going into the fall election (Sept 2012)he will lose. And if he is between 47% and 51% he will be in no man’s land.
(From Matthew Dowd, advisor to Bush 43)
3)Currently after a consensus of many polls conducted over the summer and fall only 40% of American LIKELY VOTERS feel Obama deserves to be re-elected while over 50% do not. Watch that figure over the next two years.
4)The Dems got 37% of the WHITE vote in the midterm election to 60% for the GOP. This is exactly what Obama’s job approval with WHITES was with Gallup just prior to the election. By the way in the latest Gallup Week Summary Obama has fallen to 33% among WHITE voters. Obama cannot win re-election being mired between 33%-38% with WHITE voters.
5) And currently Obama is only getting support from about 41% from MALE voters and about 48% from FEMALES. In 2008 it was 49% and 56% respectively. Obama cannot win re-election with these current numbers.
Conclusion:
Palin has a decent shot at beating Obama but it is not for the reason you think. As the famous Brices Crossroads wrote a few months ago about the Carter-Reagan matchup, once the voters decided to fire Carter, they voted for Reagan despite some folks having misgivings about the Gipper and the same will apply in 2012-once the American people decide to fire Obama en masse they will vote for the GOP nominee, whoever that might be. If it is Palin, so be it.