Does anyone seriously believe that Obama will get anywhere near the votes in 2012 that he got in 2008?
Does anyone seriously believe that Sarah Palin will get less votes than the McCain/Palin ticket got in 2008?
If she can win the nomination then all she has to do is carry the 2008 total and grab a minimal percentage of the independent voters to work the EC and get to 270. It's not beyond her capabilities to do that by any stretch.
She needs to focus on winning the same states as 2008 and flipping some states like FL, IN, CO, IA, NV, NM, OH and VA. This is not an insurmountable goal.
You are dead on except for one thing. I believe she could flip PA. Nobody like Obummer and Casey is up again and is not well liked. We have a full array of GOP leaders running things now. I think Rat turnout could be suppressed enough to win easily.
The truth of the matter is, Sarah has been working a brilliant strategy to perfection. This past year was all about reintroducing herself and her family to America.
Now she will turn to serious policy issues and continue to draw a sharp contrast with Obama and what her administration would do.
She will win the nomination in a cakewalk and the White House in a landslide.
It is going to be fun to watch.
You forgot NC. With that, she could still lose one of the small ones like NV or NM.