Posted on 11/07/2016 10:18:23 AM PST by areukiddingme1
My question is, which polls have been THE most accurate in predicting the outcome of the last say five presidential races?
Who holds the record for being the most accurate and second question who are they predicting to win this time?
I keep hearing that IBD/TIPP Tracking (Trump +2) and LA Times/USC Tracking (Trump +5) have been THE most accurate the most often in predicting the outcome of the last four presidential races -- Are you hearing the same thing.
Thanks!!
“This is a news forum. But I sure am seeing a lot of vanity posts lately.
You know our readers generally frown on vanities (unless exceptional in quality) so if you feel the urge to post yet another run of the mill vanity, please resist it.
Or, in the very least, be sure to submit a donation along with your vanity submission.”
I suggest you make an extra $100.00 donation:
Dornsife has never been wrong.
VANITY > YER BUSTED !
Differences based on randomness can account for almost all of the differences. Just because one polling outfit was accurate the last 3-5 times doesn’t mean much. It is just as possible to flip a coin with heads coming up 3-5 times in a row.
Dornsife is the same as LA Times/USC Tracking isn’t it?
Yeah, this is its first year.
I am requesting a mandatory $100.00 exit fee for those making vanity opuses about leaving instead of quietly slinking away to their lairs. This is only fair remittance for those wasting our time with (1)how do I cancel my account OR (2)can I opt out or some other stupid nonsense.
And is a poll with no history
“And is a poll with no history”
I have been told this poll is the same as the Rand Poll in 2012.
Their methodology has never been used before
The polling landscape has been changing, which is rendering many traditional polling methods less accurate then they were previously (less landlines, more cell phones, social media, etc). Because of this, most polls are either operating on dated polling methods or they are using newer methods that are not yet proven.
“I have been told this poll is the same as the Rand Poll in 2012.”
I have heard that as well — Are there any other polling firms with IBD/TIPP and Dornsife’s accuracy and consistency?
I have been digging in to this and cannot find any other polling team with their accuracy.
Always right. Say Trump wins.
This year all bets are off. The liberals at the LA Slimes and IBD know this is for all the marbles, that the democrats crime machine is going all the way down. They know they will be in prison and lose power for decades. Obama and his foreign muslim handlers know this is it, that everything with ISIS they have set into motion will be destroyed for decades to come.
Prediction date: 22/09/2016 while most pundits believed Hillary Clinton was on a methodological path to the White House.
By using the same method, Master Feng correctly predicted over 100 elections including 2000 George W Bush Win and 2008 Barack Obama Win https://goo.gl/ijaHP6 .
He has a 100% track record of accuracy for election prediction.
Today, Master Yu Gui Feng, a world leading Feng Shui Master with x-ray and natural psychic abilities, has stood by his previous Trump win prediction made on Sky News on Thursday, September 22, 2016.
Based in Australia and with methods that cut through the logic cluster of any given event, Master Feng has never hedged his predictions after 30 years of research. Other startling predictions in the run-up to next week's U.S. Presidential Election include:
"Trump has Presidential energy"
I think I'd put him up against any of these pathetic polls!
Some threads are pure vanities, personal and of limited interest to most FReepers, i.e. techies, gun purchases, vacation choices etc., and the posters ought to pony up.
Other vanities are legitimate questions on current topics, such as this one. Often, if you post a question on a related thread it may not generate many responses, so the solution to getting more opinions or answers is a thread.
This is an OK thread judging by the responses. Just MHO.
Ray, you'll never convince the uneducated. There's about half a dozen here who actually understand what MOE means.
The other day I thought about how close presidential election popular votes usually are. I haven't had time to check it, but seems that anything outside 55-45 is highly unusual.
So, even in a 10 point swing, MOE accounts for 60-80% (assuming a +/-3 or 4 MOE). Not that hard to get in that range with a throw of a dart.
For the few uneducated who are interested in actually learning something: if the final poll shows a 4 point Hitlery win and the actual vote turns out to be a 2 point Trump win, this poll is just as accurate as one that shows a Hitlery 4 point win.
Use of phrases like "hitting it on the nose" or "most accurate last time" betrays ignorance of the mechanics of statistical sampling.
Next Don Quixote project: either convincing everybody that cement is a fine gray powder with no structural value -or- that the thingy you lay your speech text on is a lecturn, not a podium.
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