Coronavirus spread is now in decline, even Hubei.

Data reported by China, as translated and summarized on Wikipedia | Dangus

[dangus]

Several days ago, I proposed that China's big lie regarding the Coronavirus wasn't downplaying its contagiousness or deadliness, but the opposite: because the Coronavirus had run rampant through Hubei before they acknowledged it, they were under-reporting cases, and therefore the death rate looked so much worse. And because they had failed to distinguish the Coronavirus from the flu, many cases where people got the Coronavirus despite strong preventitive measures were actually cases where they had been exposed much earlier to "flu."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Whatever the reasons, I identified the Coronavirus as in decline, despite the hysterics of the media... at least according to official statistics from China, which other health organizations seem wont to find credible. I suppose this credibility comes from the fact that we're seeing data similar to China outside Hubei in the rest of the world.

For instance, in Hubei, the death rate is about 2 1/2%. It's a fraction of 1% outside Hubei, and only 2 people out of 513 cases internationally have died.

Meanwhile, the declining rate of NEW infections now includes Hubei. I emphasize that I'm talking about the rate of NEW infections, because so many FReepers have tried to contradict me by pointing out the increase in the cumulative number of cases. The cumulative number will ALWAYS increase until the disease is completely eradicated. My point is that the disease is spreading more slowly, and behaving less and less like an epidemic.

The number of cases outside Hubei peaked at 889 a week ago, and has been steadily collapsing since: 731... 707... 682... 554... 507,,, 431... 381. The peak INSIDE Hubei was a few days later, topping out at 3,156, but now down to 2,097. The number of cases OUTSIDE of Hubei spiked just yesterday, but that was largely because they began testing everyone stuck on a quarrantined cruise ship.

Also a noteworthy sign of relative control: the number of current confirmed cases plus suspected cases has now actually dropped yesterday. That's right: there are fewer people THOUGHT to have the Coronavirus yesterday than there were the day before.

[Jane Long]

Yep.

Or, not :-)

[dangus]

That’s plausible, except for the very dramatic decline in the number of suspected cases. And the obvious point that until recently, they weren’t testing asymptomatic people.

[cba123]

Depends how the are counting “suspected” cases.

Could be the new method of defining suspected, is also dependent on symptoms.

In fact, it almost surely has an aspect of that.

MUCH too early to think this is some sort of turn-around, in my view.

[yesthatjallen]

There are two schools of thought.

'End of mankind' hysterics and non-hysterics.

I'm taking the cautious watch and wait approach.

In the case of the flu it's always reported the young, old, and immune compromised are at risk.

I haven't heard this clearly stated yet. Are only the old and sick dying? Or are healthy people dropping dead as they walk down the street (as some conspiracy websites are claiming)?

Can it be contained? Again, two schools of thought. Can a vaccine be developed in time? Two schools. Is it natural or engineered? Two schools. And on and on.

There is a great deal of conflicting information from sources which may or may not be reliable.

[dangus]

To answer your questions, this CV is striking mostly the old and sick. I may have missed something lately, but recently only one child had died.

[angmo]

If it is slowing down it’s probably because it is unseasonably warm up there.

Go global warming!

Covfefe-20

[heshtesh]

Did you factor in the Chinese have decided to identify and count new cases in a different manner?

[CJ Wolf]

That is a good point you make. I think the real answer is nobody is quite sure. So much stuff is speculation presented as fact. It is difficult to read what is actually happening here, as is most of the news stories we debate daily. This is one of those stories that needs monitoring though. In a month how many people have been quarantined? It has to be some kind of record here.

[Moonman62]

It’s pretty quiet over at the CDC’s Coronavirus page.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/dpk/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus-2020.html

[LSUfan]

No matter what we’re all still dependent on figures and statistics from the Communist Chinese. I’m not prepared to draw any conclusions based on anything the Chicoms release or claim

[ETCM]

Shutting down public transportation, factories, stores, restaurants, and pretty much everything but hospitals, would stop almost ANY contagious disease. Wuhan instituted draconian measures about 15 days ago. If they didn’t see a huge reduction in new cases, the world would be in deep, deep trouble. It looks like social distancing IS working.

[yldstrk]

So the Chinese have stopped throwing people in camps and blocking them in their apartments and disappearing reporters?

[cba123]

Also, just read a CNN story on the outbreak, here is how it started:

“Deaths and cases: 108 people in mainland China died on Monday, the biggest single-day death toll yet.”

[grey_whiskers]

“Lab Technician in Wuhan informs us of the situation:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQaXpO0XsAAqCaJ?format=jpg&name=medium

thanx Far
that is one brave lab tech considering what the Chinese do to anyone who tells the truth.
may God protect him

[Varsity Flight]

The number of cases dropped, because not as many live there any longer?

[dangus]

>> Could be the new method of defining suspected, is also dependent on symptoms. In fact, it almost surely has an aspect of that. <<

Uh, yeah... “suspected” has ALWAYS been based on symptoms.

[CJ Wolf]

Maybe the quarantine and spraying worked a bit.

[yesthatjallen]

To answer your questions, this CV is striking mostly the old and sick.

That's the metric we're not getting stated clearly from mainstream sources.

The conspiracy sites are claiming healthy people are dropping dead where they stand and yet no 'legitimate' source (China or US officials) is claiming the old and sick are the primary victims and at the same time they're not disputing healthy people are dropping dead. I've only read a couple articles that mentioned the (old) age of the victims. Why isn't this being stated clearly?

The lack of mainstream sources claiming the old and sick are the primary victims are few. The reports are all over the map right now and no one is discussing age and health status which I find odd. This is usually the first thing reported during any outbreak and it's suspiciously missing. It's neither being confirmed or denied.

IF healthy people are dying then it's bad. If the old and sick are dying it could be a 'run of the mill' flu-like outbreak.

[mrsmith]

Yeah, if you can’t bemieve China’s CCP, who can you believe?

[dangus]

An interesting post, but why would he think that all the patients who are removed by the army die? Based on what he says he sees, not on his inferences, he actually seems to confirm what I wrote my suspicions were: that Hubei has been characterizing Coronavirus as the “flu.”