The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty: A Strategic Shift in Eurasia?
by Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
On July 16, the presidents of Russia and China signed a Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation in Moscow. 1 This treaty is the first such agreement between these two Eurasian powers since Mao Tse-tung signed a treaty with Joseph Stalin of the U.S.S.R. in 1950, four months before the outbreak of the Korean War. That treaty had been driven by anti-Western sentiments.
The motivations behind this new treaty are much more complex and involve serious geopolitical, military, and economic considerations. In a sense, this treaty is a logical product of the improvement in Sino-Russian relations that began under the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, and continued under Boris Yeltsin. The treaty should signal to the Western world that a major geopolitical shift may be taking place in the Eurasian balance of power, with serious implications for the United States and its alliances. The 2001 Russia-China treaty covers five important areas of cooperation:
* Joint actions to offset a perceived U.S. hegemonism; 2
* Demarcation of the two countries' long-disputed 4,300 km border;
* Arms sales and technology transfers;
* Energy and raw materials supply; and
* The rise of militant Islam in Central Asia.
The treaty comes on the heels of another recent security arrangement involving these two countries: On June 14, Russia, China, and four Central Asian states announced the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an arrangement ostensibly aimed at confronting Islamic radical fundamentalism and promoting economic development. 3 Together, the agreements portend an important evolving geopolitical transformation for Russia and China, two regional giants who are positioning themselves to define the rules under which the United States, the European Union, Iran, and Turkey will be allowed to participate in the strategically important Central Asian region.
Many analysts point out that while the United States should monitor these developments, there is still no cause for panic. Contradictions in political objectives continue to exist between China and Russia, including Russia's "primordial distrust" of the Chinese, according to Professor James Sherr of Great Britain's Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst. 4 Nonetheless, there is growing concern that the new treaty between Moscow and Beijing may increase coordination between the two countries against the United States.
The Bush Administration should take steps to protect U.S. interests, increase regional security, and counter the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It should, for example, expand intelligence monitoring of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership, including assessing possible secret codicils in the treaty. It should boost military and security cooperation with India and Japan while developing joint efforts with Russia and China to counter radical Islamic threats in Central Asia. And it should offer Moscow incentives to scale down its military cooperation with China, especially with regard to weapons of mass destruction and advanced military technology.