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Posted on 11/16/2001 1:15:04 PM PST by MeekOneGOP
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By JOSEPH B. VERRENGIA, AP Science Writer
Brew some coffee. Unpack the lawn chairs. Astronomers predict this year's Leonids meteor display, expected to appear before dawn Sunday, will be a dazzler worth missing a little sleep.
``It's now or never,'' said Robert Naeye of the Astronomy Society of the Pacific. ``Astronomers don't think we'll see another storm like this one until the year 2099. We will probably never see a better meteor shower in our lifetimes.''
Every year scientists fly to places like the Gobi Desert or Canary Islands to watch the heavens rain fire for a few minutes in November. This year, Earth's alignment suggests that North America will be squarely beneath some of the most vigorous shooting stars. Pacific Islands and the Far East may see natural fireworks, too.
The most optimistic celestial forecasts call for a steady storm of 4,000 meteors per hour, or about 70 per minute around 5 a.m. EST Sunday. With clear skies, luck and the bonus of a nearly moonless night, people in some locations could see twice that.
The Leonids are dust particles shed by Comet Tempel-Tuttle. Like a truck barreling down a dirt road, the comet trails a cloud of dust as it orbits the sun once every 33 years.
The meteors are called Leonids because they appear to radiate from the constellation Leo, the Lion. A really big meteor is equal to a grain of rice.
Earth usually crosses a thin section of the Leonids trail; perhaps 10 meteors per hour streak across the night sky.
When the comet sweeps close to the sun, the sun's heat causes it to shed more debris like a truck hitting a mud puddle. Earth gets splattered when it plows though the thick wake. It occurs every November for a few years until the particles dissipate.
In 1966, observers couldn't count the shooting stars fast enough. Estimates ranged as high as 150,000 per hour.
Comet Tempel-Tuttle most recently passed close to the sun in February 1998, and since then, in the words of forecaster Joe Rao, the Leonids have ``gone berserk.''
While meteor displays thrill amateur stargazers, they also hold scientific promise. Comets are hurtling balls of ice and debris left over from the birth of the solar system more than 4 billion years ago.
The particles contain basic elements like iron, as well as carbon-based molecules. Some scientists believe this is how Earth was seeded with organic compounds.
``The chemical precursors to life - found in comet dust - may well have survived a plunge into early Earth's atmosphere,'' said NASA (news - web sites) scientist Peter Jenniskens, who directs airborne surveys of the Leonids.
Earthbound viewers are safe during a meteor shower because the tiny particles tend to burn miles from Earth. In fact, the visible meteor actually is the streak of light caused by the particle, or meteoroid, that is generating friction against the atmosphere.
But in space, the tiniest debris behaves like a speeding bullet. Satellite operators are turning their orbiting equipment edge-on into the storm so delicate sensors and solar energy arrays will not be crippled by the barrage.
Predicting the Leonids' vigor has become an annual competition. Previously educated guesswork meteor predictions are now the products of sophisticated computer models, enabling scientists to nail the storm peaks within a few minutes. This year, the Earth will pass through multiple debris trails shed by the comet as long ago as 1699.
``The comet is almost 4 years behind us now,'' said Rao, who handicaps the Leonids for Sky & Telescope magazine and the American Museum of Natural History in New York. ``The predictions are all over the place.''
Tom Van Flandern of Meta Research in Chevy Chase, Md., a non-profit astronomy group, predicts ``no fewer than five streams will pass close to the Earth, so that weak (meteor) storms may persist for several hours before the predicted strong one arrives.''
How strong? Jenniskens is the most optimistic forecaster. He predicts the Leonids will peak at 4,200 per hour at 5:09 a.m. Sunday over the East Coast, 2:09 a.m. over the West Coast. Others predict a peak of 1,300 to 2,000 per hour.
Predictions elsewhere vary as widely. One group expects a bigger storm eight hours later over the Far East; William Cooke of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center predicts no more than 800 meteors per hour over the Far East.
With so much uncertainty, most U.S. meteor chasers have decided to stay home this year. Circumstances following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have affected some plans; airspace restrictions probably will ground Jenniskens' airborne mission.
Naeye is joining an astronomers gathering at the Kitt Peak observatory in southern Arizona, where the skies should be dark and the weather dry.
``The U.S. will get a pretty good show,'' Naeye said. ``Everything is lining up just right.''
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On the Net:
Sky & Telescope magazine: www.skypub.com/leonids2001
NASA: http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/1998.html)
Earlier Stories
Leonids Meteor Shower to Light Sky (November 14)
Group: Enjoy Leonids Meteor Shower (November 14)
Thanks, I'll be watching from this side of the pond.Howdy! Yes, this look to be a pretty nice show this year.
Thanks for the article. I'm hoping to watch this as I might forget to do so in 2099. LOL
Here are a couple of potentially helpful links from Space.com
How To Shoot Shooting Stars
(photography tips)
Meteor Watching 101: Tips and Terms
And here's part of an article from here:
Despite Near Misses, Meteorites Are Low Risk
In all of recorded human history, no one has everLeonid fireball, November 17, 1998
been killed by a meteor. But there have been a
number of people struck by them, as well as some
who were nearly struck, along with many cases of
damage to animals and property.Some examples:
On November 30, 1954, Alabama housewife
Ann Hodges was taking a nap on her couch
when she was awakened by a 3-pound
(1.4-kilogram) meteor that crashed through
the roof of her house, bounced off a piece of
furniture and struck her in the hip, causing a
large bruise.On October 9, 1992, a large fireball was seen
streaking over the eastern United States,
finally exploding into many pieces. In
Peekskill, New York, one of the pieces struck
a Chevrolet automobile owned by Michelle
Knapp. Knapp was not in the car at the time,
but heard the crash and ran out to her
driveway to find a hole punched clear through
the trunk of her car and a warm 26-pound
(12-kilogram) meteorite lying under the
vehicle. But things turned out well in the end --
her old and rather run-down automobile
instantly became a collector’s item and later
sold for tens of thousands of dollars.On June 21, 1994, Jose Martin of Spain was
driving with his wife near Madrid when a
3-pound (1.4-kilogram) meteor crashed
through his windshield, bent the steering
wheel and ended up in the back seat. Martin
suffered a broken finger while his wife was
uninjured.There have also been incidents of buildings being
struck and animals being killed. In 1860, in Ohio, a
horse reportedly died after being struck by a
meteor. In 1911 a dog was killed in Egypt. But
compared with the number of horses, dogs and
housewives killed or struck by myriad other objects
and collisions over that time, being clobbered by a
meteor is an extremely remote possibility.
Here are a couple more pics......
Leonid Fireball, November 18, 1999
1966 Meteor Storm
The weather better clear up here NE, or someone's going to be a big crankypants.
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