You're exactly right that ditching the ABM treaty and cozying up to Putin is *all* about China. But I don't know how much Putin will try to play both sides. They recently (pre 9-11) signed a
Friendship and Cooperation Treaty with China. Notice how the Chinese quickly ratified it in October.
Russia knows China did this (9/11) and Putin knows his people don't want to be a communist country anymore. Putin isn't playing both sides. He's ours. Otherwise, Bush's reaction would have been much different when he was here. China is going to burn.
I think it's going to come off just like in Revelations.