Posted on 04/14/2002 4:01:40 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Opposition leader Rafael Alfonzo, a business executive involved in talks with the government, sees only two possible outcomes: ''An armed massacre by the government or democratic elections.'' Underlying the conflict are historic class divisions Chavez has exploited since he was elected president in 1998. He emphasized these divisions in six subsequent national elections and referendums. Recycling 1960s-era Marxist dogma that is out of style elsewhere in Latin America, Chavez galvanized Venezuelans in the squalid neighborhoods of Caracas and in the countryside to support his Cuban-style economic policies.
Venezuela's political crisis could lead to long-term political instability in a country that has been the world's No. 5 oil supplier. The country's crisis already is having an impact on global prices. The opposition-led strikes that began Dec. 2 have virtually shut down the oil industry here, bringing about 70% of the country's economy to a standstill. Venezuela exported nearly1.5 million barrels of crude oil a day to the USA in October, making Venezuela the fourth-largest supplier to the USA. The USA also imported about 250,000 barrels a day of gasoline until opposition-led strikes shut down Venezuelan refinery production. Overall production is down to less than 10% of pre-strike levels. The petroleum reserves discovered in the 1920s helped generate development that equaled Japan's as recently as 20 years ago. Now, the peace and prosperity of those days is a vague memory.***
Security zones can be any area that the Chavez regime says. Currently, there are 8 such security zones in Caracas alone, and 107 in the country. They cover airports, military bases, government buildings, even state-owned radio and TV stations. And if a Venezuelan ever wanted to march on Miraflores, the presidential palace and also designated a "security zone", he better be a Chavez-supporter. Otherwise he is facing up to 10 years in jail. Journalist covering protests would be deemed "instigators" and would also face stiff prison terms, a Chavez insider reported. This is a way to effectively silence critical opposition press coverage while still in theory allowing freedom of expression in Venezuela.***
Tensions between the media and the government peaked last April, when the private television stations broadcast endless coverage of the protests and military actions that briefly forced Chavez from office. But the channels turned the cameras off when Chavez's supporters and loyalist troops restored him to power two days later. In response, the government uses its television to promote Chavez and slam the opposition at every opportunity, even though the station is required to remain neutral because of its public funding.
After opposition leaders mounted the current general strike, the private stations practically suspended all regular programming to provide nonstop coverage of the opposition. Stations began showing movies and sitcoms a week later after being heavily criticized by international journalists. But news cameras still jumped on opportunities to show gas shortages, long lines at stores, and shuttered businesses. In addition, the channels no longer run commercials, instead showing only opposition-sponsored announcements. One shows film of a soldier ripping a Venezuelan flag off the back of a demonstrator as opera music rises in the background and a text scroll denounces the president as a dictator. Another shows smiling faces at a march and promises a quick removal of the president -- all to the tune of a catchy jingle.***
This must be the media topic of the day.
Also on Friday, representatives from Venezuela's government held bilateral talks with opposition groups. No details have emerged from those talks but a subsequent meeting between the two groups scheduled to be mediated by the Organization of American States was postponed after government officials reportedly didn't show up. OAS Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria then left the country for the weekend. Chavez, elected in 1998, has said he will not resign or call early elections. On Friday, his supporters held smaller rallies outside several offices of the state-run oil company, PDVSA, demanding that oil workers return to work.***
Juan Fernandez, a PDVSA executive fired by Chavez, said the stoppage will continue despite a back-to-work order by the Supreme Court. "Not one step back," he declared at a news conference, using the strike slogan emblazoned on demonstrators' black headbands. The military said it was trying to bring into port one gasoline-laden tanker whose crew joined the strike two weeks ago. "If anyone tries to block the transport process, they will be disobeying a Supreme Court ruling, and judicial measures will be taken," said Army Gen. Alberto Jose Gutierrez. But Saul Perez, the head of the port of Maracaibo, resigned Friday, saying he refused "to be responsible for the disaster that can occur" with untrained crews handling tankers and tug boats. ***
But Perez, who voted for Chavez before becoming increasingly alarmed by the president's leftist politics, said it was wrong to assume that all of the thousands of protesters were fighting to preserve their privileged status. ''Me, rich?'' he said with incredulity, gesturing to his worn tennis shoes and threadbare track pants. ''I make $150 a month if I'm lucky. I live in a working-class neighborhood. But that doesn't mean I want Venezuela to become like Cuba. There, everyone is poor.'' Chavez's opponents accuse him of trying to remake this conservative South American nation in the image of communist-run Cuba. They point to Chavez's close ties to President Fidel Castro of Cuba, his increasingly leftist rhetoric, and his creation of neighborhood watchdog groups modeled on Cuba's Committee for the Defense of the Revolution.
Chavez opponents accuse the groups - called Boliviariano Circles after the South American independence leader, Simon Bolivar - of inciting violence during protest rallies, including the bloody clashes in April that killed 19 people. Those deaths helped trigger an abortive 48-hour coup, after which Chavez resumed control. But the president's once sky-high popularity ratings have slumped to 25 percent, according to some newspaper surveys. Despite fears of more violence, the mood among anti-Chavez protesters yesterday was one of jubilation, with many participants equating their struggle with that of Eastern Europeans in the days before the fall of the Berlin Wall. ***
It has also stoked fears of violence in this politically divided country of 23 million people. Chavez sympathisers turned out in support of the President, who refuses to quit and has sent troops to seize state oil tankers, refineries and ports in unsuccessful efforts to break the strike. Women in bikini tops with the colours of the Venezuelan flag danced to salsa music as the anti-Chavez march streamed along a main highway. [End]
Hundreds of cars, buses and trucks on Saturday lined up outside gasoline stations as drivers hunted for increasingly scarce petrol supplies. Panicky shoppers packed supermarkets to stock up on food and other basic supplies. Massive political protests, rallies and street clashes have kept tensions in Venezuela running high since April when Chavez survived a brief coup by rebel military officers. More than 60 people died during the chaotic uprising. ***
A source at the Cuban Embassy in Caracas, speaking on condition of anonymity, denied the claim, calling it a "lie." State TV said Venezuelans were piloting the ship. Chavez's rivals often accuse the president of being too close to communist Cuba. Government security forces detained the Pilin Leon's captain and crew Friday night, Cuiro Izarra, international commercial manager of the state oil company, told Globovision TV. On Saturday, the vessel was heading toward a port in Maracaibo Lake. ***
In a message to the nation on Sunday, Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and has ignored calls to step down, pledged to ruin opposition plans to "sabotage the holiday spirit" and said he will make sure "all Venezuelans have a happy Christmas." "They wanted to sabotage cornmeal. That was very clever of them. Without cornmeal, you can't have hayacas on Christmas," a buoyant Chavez said during his weekly "Hello President" television show, referring to a traditional Venezuelan dish made of cornmeal, meat and vegetables wrapped in banana leaves. "Our armed forces will be distributing cornmeal to the people so that all Venezuelans can have hayacas in Christmas."
But strike leaders, who have vowed to continue with their protest until Chavez leaves, urged the president to allow Venezuelans enjoy "Christmas in peace." "The only one responsible here for us not having Christmas is you Mr. Chavez," said anti-Chavez union boss Carlos Ortega. "The only solution is your ouster." ***
After a supreme court ruling last week, interpreted by the government as ordering an end to the oil strike, those who engaged in "acts or omissions that obstruct the application" of a temporary injunction issued by the court's constitutional branch could be jailed, said General Jose Luis Prieto, the Defence Minister . The law cited by the minister provides for prison sentences of between six and 15 months for contempt of court.
In a broadcast at the weekend, General Prieto announced the formation of a military-led "unified command" to guarantee "vital interests such as the oil industry". This suggests that civilians will be obliged to obey military orders and, according to opposition commentators, is one of several steps the government has taken in the direction of a de facto state of emergency. The political analyst Alberto Garrido said: "What we're beginning to see is the implementation of a left-wing version of the national security doctrine practised by South American military dictatorships of the Seventies."
As General Prieto spoke, the government's strike breaking efforts yielded a small breakthrough. The national oil company PDVSA's tanker Pilin Leon, whose crew were the first in the merchant navy to join the strike, on 4 December, was finally moved to the Bajo Grande tanker terminal on Lake Maracaibo, where it was expected to unload 260,000 barrels of petrol. That is the equivalent of just over a day's consumption Across Venezuela, motorists are queuing for up to 12 hours to fill their tanks, with petrol production halted and supplies dwindling. The strike, called by the opposition Democratic Coordinator in response to President Chavez's refusal to accept an early referendum on his rule, has already cost PDVSA more than $1bn (£624m) in lost export revenue. [End]
Along with fears of a U.S. war against Iraq, the Venezuelan oil drought has pushed oil prices to over $30 a barrel. Venezuela supplies more than 13 percent of U.S. oil imports. Speaking during his weekly "Hello President" television and radio show, Chavez said PDVSA was resuming shipments to clients like the United States and Cuba. He accused "international transnational interests" of being involved in the strike and denounced a U.S.-Canadian consortium, Sociedad Williams Enbridge y Compania, for "abandoning" and "sabotaging" an oil export loading terminal in eastern Venezuela it was operating under a long-term lease.
A pro-government PDVSA official, Luis Marin, told Chavez during the show that the departing foreign executives and staff had damaged the Jose terminal's electronics and equipment. "Venezuela is going to sue them for damaging national property. ... The contract is over, right?," said Chavez.***
''He's a snake charmer. When he came into power, we thought we'd have a kind of socialist democracy like in Europe,'' said Marcos Hernandez, 40, a financial director for a French company who is helping to organize protests against Chavez. ''But all we've seen is that the poor are poorer and there is no more middle class.'' Orlando Lopez, a 52-year-old street merchant, gave different reasons. ''He speaks in vulgar language,'' he said, referring to Chavez's penchant for using the jargon of the barrios, or working class neighborhoods. ''He shouldn't speak like that. He's the president.'' ***
A recent survey by the Caracas-based Datanalisis polling firm gives Mendoza 63 percent of the vote in a hypothetical race against Chavez. Pollsters interviewed 1,000 people in two major cities Nov. 11-19. The survey had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Mendoza is an independent aligned with the new Justice First party, which has placed itself at the forefront of the anti-Chavez campaign. The party is popular among young, middle-class Venezuelans because its leaders are mostly under 40 and unassociated with corrupt governments of the past.
Another serious contender is Julio Borges, an Oxford-educated legislator and head of Justice First. He's the exact opposite of Chavez, a former army paratrooper from humble origins who spent two years in jail for leading a failed coup in 1992 before sweeping the 1998 election with tough talk against a corrupt political establishment. Borges, 33, won converts by personally leading a march through a band of rock-throwing Chavez supporters to deliver 2 million signatures demanding a referendum on the president's administration. *** Borges' party once drafted a proposal for an entire new constitution, based on decentralized government and more private participation in the economy. But such efforts have been sidelined by the push to oust Chavez.
There's also Carlos Ortega, the gruff president of the 1 million-member Venezuelan Workers Confederation who, as former head of the largest oil workers union, has dealt a serious blow to the Chavez government by leading a strike for higher pay. Ortega stunned fellow opposition leaders by announcing at a rally that the strike would begin Dec. 2. He also sent thousands on a march during an April strike to the presidential palace, which led to 19 people being killed by gunfire and a coup that briefly ousted Chavez. ***
Disruptions in the world's No. 5 oil exporter have rattled global petroleum markets. U.S. crude oil futures in New York settled up $1.45 at $31.75 a barrel -- hitting two-year highs late Monday -- amid fears over Venezuelan oil shortages and the growing threat of war in Iraq. Three weeks into the grueling shutdown, government and opposition leaders appeared no closer to breaking their political deadlock over the president's rule. In a night-time protest, tens of thousands of anti-government demonstrators marched through eastern Caracas carrying candles and torches, demanding that Chavez step down.
"We'll march until this guy leaves. This is the light for hope," said Nieves Padrino, 40, a hairdresser who carried a candle in one hand and a Venezuelan flag in the other. A grenade exploded late Monday outside the headquarters of a leading anti-Chavez business association. No-one was injured though the building was lightly damaged, local media reported.***
Outside many districts of Caracas, crowds still clutch portraits of Chavez, wear imitations of his trademark red beret and regularly gather at his public appearances. Many plead with him personally to solve their economic problems. Others are content just to see or touch him.
………………… Chavez has introduced social development programs, but results have been mixed. The high-profile Plan Bolivar 2000 ended in failure and a flurry of accusations of misspent money. Plan Bolivar 2000 employed soldiers and civilians across Venezuela to build roads, administer healthcare and repair schools for the poor. The project bombed after its coordinator, an army general, was dismissed amid corruption allegations. ………Chavez's most radical support is organized in hundreds of so-called Bolivarian Circles - neighborhood groups coordinated by the government that perform grass roots social projects. Critics call them a civilian militia, alleging they instigate violent attacks against the political opposition. ………….He's called the years 2000-2010 a "decade of silver" for Venezuelans. The years 2011-2021 - when the 48-year-old Chavez, despite efforts to oust him, envisions hanging up his gloves - promise a "decade of gold."***
Brazil's state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro shipped 520,000 barrels of gasoline to Venezuela. The tanker should arrive by the weekend, Brazilian officials said Thursday. Once the strike ends, Venezuela will pay oil for food from the Dominican Republic, Agriculture Minister Efren Andrade said. The deal includes a recent rice shipment.
OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria was returning to Caracas to continue weeks of talks on an early vote on Chavez's presidency. There has been little progress. Chavez has refused opposition demands that he call a nonbinding referendum on his government, that he step down, or that he schedule new presidential elections. Venezuela's opposition delivered 2 million signatures demanding the nonbinding vote, and the national elections council is verifying signatures and organizing a poll.***
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