Since the opposition strategy is to outwait the government, Chavez' control of the remaining gasoline supplies, food imports and any international relief plays significantly in his favor. Strike fatigue appears to be growing among the populace. Moreover, support for the strike was divided from the outset. As gasoline and cooking gas shortages grow this week into a national supply crisis, public opinion could start turning against the opposition.
Finally, the United States, by intention or neglect, has opted to let events in Venezuela run their course without interference. Washington is singularly focused on building a coalition for a war on Iraq, and creating another Allende would only justify and ossify European opposition to U.S. efforts at proactive international policing. Moreover, Washington's priority in Venezuela is stable oil production. With a divided opposition and the very real possibility for long-term violent unrest in a post-Chavez Venezuela, a return to pre-strike status quo is perhaps the best option from the U.S. perspective. Chavez was an annoyance to Washington, not a threat. He kept the oil flowing.
What does this all add up to? This week appears to be critical. If the gasoline and cooking gas supplies run out and food shortages continue to deepen, an opposition march later this week could draw massive support. It also could spark a confrontation, if the march is directed at the presidential palace as planned. At that point, everyone shows their cards. Divisions in the military will be clarified, as will the resolve of Chavez, his supporters and his foes.
On the other hand, if the government is able to coordinate relief efforts, carefully directing the delivery of food staples, public opinion could swing against the strikers. Or if Chavez continues to exercise the same restraint he has demonstrated over the past two weeks, banking on the opposition's aversion to decisive action, the march could lap at the gates of the presidential palace and ebb away to no effect. Watch the gas pumps. Then watch the march. If Chavez survives the weekend, he may well have weathered yet another storm.***
Chavez, who commandeered some private truck fleets on Dec. 8 to deliver gas, expanded on that order with a decree allowing civilian and military officials to temporarily seize any vehicle that delivers gas, oil or food - including trucks, boats and aircraft - to end strike-caused shortages. Chavez ordered inspections of businesses to determine if any were hoarding goods such as milk, rice or medicine. Those doing so could be fined. His decree, dated Tuesday and published late Wednesday, cited threats to national security caused by shortages of essential goods. ***