Surely, any pledge of goodwill from Venezuela towards the United States raises eyebrows these days, given the recent testy exchanges between the two countries. But, despite the tensions, Venezuela could hardly be expected to punish itself economically by halting oil exports to the United States.
Venezuela has traditionally provided about 20 percent of America's crude-oil imports, and it is the world's largest oil producer outside of the Middle East. In the wake of a two-month nationwide strike that began Dec. 4, Venezuela's oil production has been impaired. About 40 percent of the workers at Venezuela's state oil company were fired for striking. Before the strike, Venezuela was exporting about 2.5 million barrels a day, of which 1.5 million (60 percent) went to the United States. Estimates vary on what Venezuela is currently exporting.
Some private analysts believe Venezuela is exporting 1.8 million barrels a day and producing 2.4 million barrels a day. The government says it has passed its OPEC production quota of 2.8 million barrels a day, and can even push up production to 4 million barrels by April, if there's a supply emergency.
Regardless of the varying estimates, the company's ability to recover from the strike is impressive. And the United States does indeed need Venezuelan oil, particularly now. The Bush administration has successfully balanced its need for Venezuelan oil with its determination to hold Mr. Chavez accountable for his actions. The administration criticized Venezuela's arrests of strikers, for example, to which Mr. Chavez responded by telling the United States to mind its own business.
Now, with some Iraqi oil wells set on fire and the war possibly disrupting oil production for an unknown period of time, it may be tempting for the United States to go silent on its concerns about Mr. Chavez. But a continuation of the Bush administration's calibrated policy would bolster U.S. credibility and leadership. Also, the engagement of the United States and other countries in the Group of Friends initiative - an effort to broker agreements between the government and the opposition - keeps Mr. Chavez's policies within certain democratic bounds. The Group of Friends may also be moderating the opposition's tactics. A more restrained Mr. Chavez helps avert the kind of crisis that would disrupt Venezuela's oil production over the medium or long term.
The best guarantor of stability and oil production in Venezuela will be the international community's steady engagement. At this point, the whole world has a stake in Venezuela's future. [End]
Scotland Yard and secret police here are now combing bank accounts, telephone records and other travel documents to determine whether Rahaman, who also suffered from serious depression, might have been part of an al-Qaida cell seeking to launch a surprise attack from an unexpected base: South America. "This is a very complicated, very delicate investigation," said a Venezuelan government official involved in the inquiry. "We are looking to see what links he had" to terrorist groups.
Latin America's loose borders, weak legal systems and poor regional cooperation have long allowed some areas to become minor havens for activities linked to international terrorism. Venezuela's Margarita Island, a tourist destination with a large Arab population, has been identified as a source of funding and site of money laundering for the Hezbollah and Hamas militant groups.
Investigators say Rahaman has ties to the region where the borders of Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil meet. Local Arab traders there are accused of sending millions back to Hamas and Hezbollah. U.S., Argentine and Israeli authorities believe the area was the launching site for bombing attacks in Buenos Aires, Argentina, against the Israeli Embassy in 1992 and a Jewish community center in 1994 that left 86 dead. Brazilian federal police also said recently that Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the alleged al-Qaida chief of operations and Sept. 11 mastermind who was arrested earlier this month in Pakistan, visited the triple-border region at least twice in the 1990s. And in 1999, police captured an Egyptian terror suspect affiliated with al-Qaida who established himself at the triple border in order to set up a network there, according to Argentine intelligence documents.
Rahaman had phone contact and other ties with suspected extremists in the triple border region, a U.S. official said in an interview. It is not clear whether Rahaman traveled to the area, the U.S. official said. Investigators in Europe and Venezuela have not yet determined what Rahaman's target might have been, the U.S. official said. But if he turns out to have been part of an al-Qaida operation, it would mark the first time the group has tried to launch an attack from Latin America, raising fears of a new front in the U.S. government's war on terror just hours from Miami. U.S. law enforcement officials are monitoring the case, but have not opened an official investigation.
Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert who heads the Washington office for Rand Corporation, noted that al-Qaida's Web site was paid for from a Caracas-based bank account for a brief period last year. Al-Qaida "may see Latin America as an area where nobody is looking for them," Hoffman said. "They see breathing space and room to maneuver."
Rahaman was arrested Feb. 13 when British customs inspectors found a hand grenade in a large duffel bag as he was leaving the baggage claim area at Gatwick airport. He had flown to London on a British Airways flight that originated in Colombia and made stops in Caracas and Barbados. Rahaman was charged with three counts under Britain's Terrorism Act and remains in custody. ***