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To: Mitchell
I think it's a important find, Mitchell. Curiosity has got to be piqued.

I hesitate to put this thought out, but maybe this is due to the "subtle but possibly significant" differences between the FL and DC anthrax.

OTOH, maybe Ernesto Blanco's body simply has incredible healing power.

12 posted on 04/23/2002 9:48:43 PM PDT by keri
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To: keri; Nogbad
I hesitate to put this thought out, but maybe this is due to the "subtle but possibly significant" differences between the FL and DC anthrax.

That's exactly what I was suggesting as a possibility.

OTOH, maybe Ernesto Blanco's body simply has incredible healing power.

That's possible, but his age (74) argues against it, as does the fact that he contracted the disease in the first place (only one other person contracted anthrax at AMI, despite widespread exposure there).

Let's analyze this statistically. Take as the null hypothesis the statement that there is no difference between the FL and NJ anthrax. Of the 6 inhalation anthrax survivors, 1 refuses to be interviewed. So, of the 5 we know about, 1 (Blanco) has fully recovered, and 4 are experiencing the syndrome of symptoms described in the article (memory loss, fatigue, joint pain). Assuming the null hypothesis now, all patients were exposed to the same anthrax; this anthrax would then appear to cause this syndrome among about 80% of the survivors (due to genetic differences among patients or other factors). The fully-recovered patient could equally likely have been any one of the five (by the null hypothesis). The probability that the fully-recovered patient (we would expect to have one) would be the patient from FL is 1 out of 5, or 20%.

So I conclude that the probability that this is due to chance (rather than to some difference between the FL and NJ anthrax) is 20%. In statistical terms, we can say that there is a difference between the FL and NJ anthrax at the p=0.8 confidence level. This is not statistically significant (because of the small sample size), but it's high enough to be suggestive. It does add to the weight of other evidence that there is a difference.

In terms of other measures, notice that there doesn't appear to be a difference in mortality rate between the FL anthrax and the NJ anthrax, among the people who contracted the inhalation form of the disease. Fatalities numbered 1 out of 2 cases in FL, and 4 out of 9 cases in the Northeast.

On the other hand, there does appear to be a difference in the site of infection. There were many cases of cutaneous anthrax in the Northeast, but none in FL. This suggests a difference in physical preparation or delivery method, but it's conceivable that a subtle genetic difference could make one type more virulent at a particular site than another.

13 posted on 04/24/2002 8:15:22 AM PDT by Mitchell
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To: keri; mitchell; nogbad
It's also possible that Blanco has recovered more fully because of a difference in treatment. Do we know the details of how the different survivors were treated?
18 posted on 04/24/2002 1:13:57 PM PDT by aristeides
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