Chinese Defence Build-Up on Track

Global Defense ^ | FR Post 4-27-02 | By William M Carpenter

[vannrox]

Chinese Defence
Build-Up on Track

Section Articles
• Chinese Defence Build-Up  • East-Asian Defence Sales  • India & Pakistan go Nuclear
Top: xxxxxx

By William M Carpenter, senior consultant with SRI International, and David G Weincek, president of International Security Group Inc.

The financial crisis that has rocked east and south-east Asia over the past year has slowed, if not halted, major military modernisation programmes in almost every country in the region for the time being. China's military, however, appears to be weathering the Asian financial storm and is much better positioned than neighbouring militaries to withstand its effects. In short, China's defence build-up remains on track.

Security strategy The modernisation drive of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the collective name for China's armed forces, is a long-term effort designed to position Beijing as a dominant military power in Asia and eventually as a superpower capable of challenging US and western interests on a global scale. A number of indicators highlight this long-range intent.

The first of these is the development of two new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at a time when the US has frozen ICBM development and both Washington and Moscow are moving to reduce their ICBM forces under the strategic arms reduction treaties (START). A further indicator is the probable development of multiple nuclear warheads or multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) for new ICBMs at a time when the US and Russia are scrapping MIRVs in favour of single warhead missiles that are seen as promoting strategic stability. A new-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) to be deployed with a new, longer-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is also under development. There are plans to build and deploy an aircraft carrier by 2010, and the deployment and modernisation of ballistic missile defence (BMD) systems to defend Beijing and other key strategic sites are taking place. Finally, an anti-satellite (ASAT) capability is being developed.
 

Chinese DF-15 ballistic missile in its launch vehicle

The PLA is developing new ICBMs and SLBMs for long-range power-projection purposes and in order to increase its ability to hold at-risk population centres and vital military assets of its strategic adversaries. These strategic systems also will be effective for exerting influence during periods of crisis. Beijing's on-going conventional force modernisation is geared toward meeting nearer-term objectives within the context of its enunciated strategy of active defence. The concept of active defence requires gaining the initiative once the enemy has attacked. As formulated by Defence Minister Chi Haotian in February 1998: "The PLA has always maintained a sound level of combat readiness in the peaceful environment so as to contain the outbreak of war. Once the national sovereignty and territorial integrity are impaired and the country is under foreign aggression, we will carry out resolute self-defence."(1)

Another military authority, General Zhao Nanqi, former President of the Academy of Military Science, has written that, under the strategy of active defence, China should strive to "defeat the enemy's superior force with our inferior equipment".(2) This objective ties in with the PLA's intent to exploit revolution in military affairs (RMA) concepts and technologies. Chinese military commentators speak with increasing frequency about RMA and asymmetric warfare strategies designed to attack an opponent where it is weak, for example, by using ballistic or cruise missiles with a high probability of target penetration to carry out precision strikes, or using ASATs to degrade or disable communications or reconnaissance satellites or jammers against global positioning system (GPS) receivers. In addition, according to the US Department of Defense, the PLA has shown an exceptional interest in recent years in information warfare that would be designed to attack an enemy's decision-making capability by employing deception strategies or conducting various types of electronic warfare.

In this respect, US analyst Michael Pillsbury has noted: "The Chinese argue each of America's high-technology weapons is flawed in one way or another and can be defeated. They point to American over-reliance on satellites for targeting, reconnaissance and battle-damage assessments. They believe the United States relies on satellites for 90 per cent of its combat information and communications and that asymmetric warfare targeting these assets could cripple the United States at a low cost to China." (3)

All these efforts are part of a broader programme designed to field a force capable of conducting operations under high-tech conditions. As articulated in the White Paper on national defence, released in July 1998, the PLA will strengthen itself by "relying on science and technology, and will strive to make the transition from a numerically-superior type to a qualitatively-efficient type, and from a manpower-intensive type to a technology-intensive type. In view of the characteristics of modern wars, no effort will be spared to improve the modernisation level of weaponry."

Embracing technology

An order for 200 Kh-31 (AS-17 Krypton) anti-radar missiles was expected to be signed in December 1998

This embrace of technology is designed to give the PLA an edge over other regional powers, particularly looking towards China's interests in Taiwan and the South China Sea, as well as creating a counterweight to India that is pursuing an aggressive ballistic and cruise missile programme and that demonstrated its nuclear capabilities in May 1998 with a series of highly publicised tests.

The notion that China may be able to deploy enough high-tech weaponry to leapfrog from its current inferior equipment to the point of becoming a formidable regional or strategic power is evident in its foreign acquisitions, particularly from Russia. The Chinese reportedly have purchased military equipment worth $6bn from Russia since 1991. Key purchases have been for off-the-shelf, front-line systems that can contribute quickly to China's military punch. They include 50 Su-27 Flanker fighter aircraft with a licence to co-produce an additional 200 over the next 10-15 years; four Kilo-class diesel submarines including two of an advanced design; two Sovremennyy- class destroyers, each equipped with high-performance Raduga SS-N-22 Sunburn/Moskit anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs); 12 Kamov Ka-28 Helix-A shipboard anti-submarine warfare helicopters for the Sovremennyy; the SA-10B air defence/anti-tactical ballistic missile defence system; and 20 Su-30 two-seat multi-role fighters equipped with 3M-80EA ASCMs, an air-launched version of the Sunburn/Moskit, in a deal expected to be finalised in early 1999.

In 1998, China won the tender to scrap the Varyag, Ukraine's near-completed 67,000-ton aircraft carrier that will be of use for reverse-engineering purposes or, if funds permit, re-armed and refitted. Possibly attempting to capitalise on Thailand's current economic difficulties, the Chinese reportedly inspected the small aircraft carrier Chakri Naruebet. This $336m vessel, built in Spain, displaces 11,500 tons, has a ski-jet flight deck with two aircraft elevators and can carry four helicopters and six short take-off/vertical-landing aircraft. But Bangkok now lacks the resources to put this ship to sea with any frequency and is employing it mainly as a free tourist attraction.(4) As Flight International commented: "China's acquisition of a helicopter carrier would represent a significant boost to the PLA navy's amphibious lift capabilities and a threat to Taiwan."(5)

Naval forces and options

Kh-35 (AS-20 Kayak) are in demand with far eastern countries

China's naval modernisation plans appear to have two phases. In the first phase, the objective is to achieve a green-water capability by 2000 that would have sea forces able to operate out to the first island chain formed by Japan, the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan and the west coast of Borneo. In the second phase, the PLA navy would have a blue-water reach out to the second island chain formed by the Kurils, Bonins and Papua New Guinea. If China is to get to this second phase, it will need at least one aircraft carrier.

Realistically, for the next decade or so the PLA navy will remain primarily a coastal defence fleet. A major shortcoming is in amphibious lift. The question is often raised because China has never ruled out the use of force to re-unify Taiwan with the mainland, and that Beijing might invade and conquer Taiwan. At present the only option may be to use human-wave tactics by loading troops in merchant vessels that would come in massed across the Taiwan Straits. Because these vessels would be unarmed, they would be highly vulnerable to attack by Taiwanese forces.

China certainly has enough manpower to carry out a Taiwan scenario. Estimates vary as to how many troops would be required or in position for an attack on Taiwan. About 400,000 is the number sometimes cited, but the PLA navy currently does not have the amphibious lift to carry that number. Unless the PLA air force could maintain air superiority over the Straits, the invading forces would be at the mercy of Taiwan's sea and air forces.
 

Ka-28 helicopters are to be embarked on Chinese warships

Given these near-term constraints, Beijing could turn to a missile attack. A preview of how such an operation might be carried out occurred in 1995-96 when the world got a look at China's missile capabilities in the form of two sets of highly provocative tests. In 1995 China fired six DF-15 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from Fujian Province to an area 90 miles north of Taipei. Then in March 1996, in an effort to influence Taiwan's presidential elections, Beijing launched four more DF-15s into two impact zones that bracketed the island. The Washington Post recently revealed that one of these missiles "passed almost directly over Taiwan's capital, Taipei, before landing 19 miles off the coast".(6)

China continues to emphasise its build-up of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles of varying ranges, as well as conventionally-armed ASCMs and land-attack cruise missiles. Chinese ballistic missiles are becoming more accurate and survivable and would be well suited, as the 1995-96 tests showed, for intimidating Taipei during a future crisis or as a means of conducting highly effective strategic strikes against the island.

Outlook
China is embarked on a major military modernisation programme. Beijing took the US high-tech performance in the Gulf War as a signal to modernise the PLA in all its air, land and sea components. China's increasing defence budget, even apparently in the face of the recent financial turmoil in Asia, is evidence of this overall intent. Chinese military planners know their current forces are far behind those of the US and other major powers, particularly in defence technology, and that it will take years before indigenous capabilities will match external levels, but they will keep trying. The PLA is not fully prepared for true joint operations, but this goal is also on its agenda as it looks to field a much more potent force in the years ahead.

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In addition, according to the US Department of Defense, the PLA has shown an exceptional interest in recent years in information warfare that would be designed to attack an enemy's decision-making capability by employing deception strategies or conducting various types of electronic warfare

At the same time, they have adapted Linux as their mandated operating system, and are avoiding Microsoft like the plague for strategic command and control. The PLA are undoubtedly hardening Linux to a multi-level secure system.

All of this software knowledge, of course, thanks to graduate studies at American Universities, and undoubtedly intelligence agents used as H1-B visa holders.

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Personally, I'd like to see both x-42 and The Ankle swinging from a rope for all that they did "for America". Or should I say "TO America".

One thing in any protracted conflict with the Chinese is that they lack ingenuity - they can copy quite well, but invention is not their forte - or quality control for that matter. Sophisticated manufacturing techniques using CNC equipment isn't very widespread in China outside of foreign corporations. Mao's Cultural Revolution resulted in a dumbed-down populace just as designed - that's one thing we can actually thank that SOB for.

I expect to see China doing everything it can in the near future to appear to be on America's side, since they must be terribly worried about our newfound alliance with Russia. Granted, their rhetoric will always be shrill, but they don't dare push any issue against us directly. They prefer to work behind the scenes in order to have others do the actual fighting - like al Queda - that way when their proxies are defeated they still have the deniability they need. Otherwise, the failure of their "employees" would reflect poorly on them. Saving face and honor (their own proprietary version) is their main goal at all times. Should the US and Russia become true partners in geopolitical affairs, the ChiComs are screwed - and they know it. All I can say to China is: Phuc Hu.