The young Saudis are the ones causing alot of the trouble against the monarchy (alot like Iran in the early 70's). The vast Al Sa'ud family tends to get a free pass when they exhibit their 'degeneracy' and that forments discontent. One of the oddest things about Saudi is the fact that the more educated and 'middle-class' are the ones embracing the stricter forms of Islam. Wahabbism and Sunnism are completely joined at the hip, presenting the face of 'pure' Islam. The bedouins in Saudi are not numerous enough or politically powerful enough to make many ripples. As long as they have latitude to practice their own tribal laws (in the desert, out of sight of the officials) they could care less who is in charge. Iraq has a majority Shia and Shias think (according to their own writings) that Muslims should live under cleric-run theocracies. If you look at some of the early articles coming out of Iraq in the 60's, you'll see that many moderate Muslims and Christians thought that the Ba'ath party would help to quell Shia advancement. (I guess they didn't see little Nebucadnezzar II for what he really is). In order for anything even resembling stability to come to the region, the entire world-view and ideologies of millions of people must do a 180. I just don't think that it will happen in our lifetimes, if at all.
The KSA has seen a GDP drop of 75%. 1970s Iran had a similar drop. The educated middle class is hooking up with the mosque because it is the only place they can express themselves politically without facing sanctions, just as Solidarnosc took off in dictatorial Poland. It's not Islam per se, it's speaking freely that they're after. Well a lot of them anyway.
Most Saudis were Beduins a few years back, and their ethos still permeates the country. Nobody was freer than the Bedu and the cowboys of yore, and just as these traditions still are alive in Texas, they remain so in the KSA.
In dictatorships, you do well to ignore all "official" writings. Just as Iran and the former Warsaw Pact countries went through monumental changes within years as despots were removed, the Middle East could be completely different, a la Chile within 10 years. This requires some settlement to the problems in the holy land, but, as the costs of not doing so are becoming bigger and bigger, we'll see it happen. Soon.
In order for anything even resembling stability to come to the region, the entire world-view and ideologies of millions of people must do a 180. I just don't think that it will happen in our lifetimes, if at all.I think you are right. It would be good to remind everyone what happened in Iran. The Shah of Iran was an ally of the West, but Jimmy Carter refused to support him. Carter forced the Shah to let the Ayatollan Khomenei back into the country. The result was the Iranian Revolution and the establishment of a brutal regime much worse than what it replaced.