Posted on 05/13/2002 11:26:02 PM PDT by JohnHuang2
EW DELHI, May 13 — Even as an American official arrived here on a mission to defuse the tensions that have lingered between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, India's defense minister, George Fernandes, said in an interview today that India had no plans to launch such a military attack over the next few months even if severely provoked.
He is so far the first and only senior Indian official to offer such assurances.
Other Indian officials have privately told the United States that India is fast approaching the time when it will have to decide whether to take military action, some American officials say.
Western diplomats and American officials say that it is a perilous moment on the subcontinent. One senior Western diplomat here put the odds of a military conflict at even or better. "We're approaching the crunch time in testing Pakistani intentions," he said.
Christina Rocca, the assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, arrived in New Delhi tonight and will travel to Pakistan later this week on a mission to address the tensions. The American government fears that a military conflict would not only risk a nuclear conflagration but also gravely complicate its efforts to capture Qaeda members of Al Qaeda in Pakistan.
"There is a risk of war," Reuters quoted Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith as saying in a speech in Washington today. "You're talking about two countries with nuclear weapons, so the risks are very large. We're focused on defusing those tensions."
The conditions for a major conflict are present. A million Indian and Pakistani troops remain fully mobilized on their 1,800-mile border.
The troops were massed there after an attack on India's Parliament on Dec. 13 that Indian officials blamed on Pakistan-based militants seeking to drive India from Jammu and Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state.
Under American pressure, Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has since pledged a bold crackdown on Islamic extremists in his country, including the groups that India blamed in connection with the Parliament attack and groups that have sent fighters across the border into Kashmir.
Indian officials said they would wait until April or May, when the snows began to melt in the Himalayan region, to judge whether General Musharraf had made good on his word. Indian intelligence officials now say the number of militants sneaking across the border in March and April was about the same as in the previous two years.
Officials from the home and defense ministries say 2,000 militants are spread out along the Pakistani side of the so-called Line of Control that divides Kashmir between Pakistan and India.
"We have no doubt whatsoever that they are massed there to cross into our territory," Mr. Fernandes said today. "This can happen at any time — by the end of this month or early next month."
The Indian government now faces an excruciating choice. It must decide whether to follow through on its threat to take military action against Pakistan, or subject itself to the withering charge from its political opposition, as well as from triumphant Pakistani generals, that India was just bluffing.
Jaswant Singh, the minister of external affairs, refused to say in an interview on Saturday what India will do. "Don't ask me this question," he said. "It's not fair. As a responsible member of this government, frankly I cannot answer this question."
Mr. Singh, however, was unequivocal in stating that General Musharraf had gone back on his promise of a crackdown on the groups India accused of attacking its Parliament. "Their leadership is now freed, it lives in houses and gets paid an allowance by the government of Pakistan," he said.
Mr. Fernandes said India would not take military action against Pakistan at least until state elections were held in Kashmir, probably in September. "We do not want the elections to be disrupted at any cost," he said.
Historically, elections in Kashmir have been marred by vote rigging and fraud, alienating Kashmiris and fueling support for those who want independence or the right to join Pakistan.
Senior Indian officials say the Americans are not doing enough to pressure Pakistan to crack down on the militants, perhaps because the United States is so reliant on General Musharraf for help in hunting for Osama bin Laden and his followers. They are regularly galled when American officials praise the general for the steps he has taken against Islamic extremists.
Home Minister L. K. Advani told the American ambassador here in a recent meeting that he thought the United States was being fooled by the general, a home ministry official said. Mr. Fernandes said about the Americans: "I certainly am disappointed. They could do more."
American attention had drifted from the India-Pakistan confrontation in the past few quiet months, especially with the crisis in the Middle East, but has begun to come back. "I think it is dangerous and our government is now waking up to that," an American official said.
The killing of hundreds of Muslims in sectarian violence over the last two and a half months in the western Indian state of Gujarat has added yet another layer of tensions between the two countries.
Indian intelligence officials say Dawood Ibrahim, a Bombay crime boss wanted in India, is back in Pakistan and plotting retaliatory attacks with Pakistani intelligence officials.
"It's totally confirmed," said a senior home ministry official. "He's back in Pakistan. He has been asked to get the underworld mafia activated to do acts of sabotage."
The recent violence stemmed from continuing tensions over a 16th century mosque in the northern Indian city of Ayodya that was torn down by Hindu zealots in 1993. India accuses Mr. Ibrahim and Pakistan of plotting a series of bomb blasts in Bombay that are believed to have been carried out to avenge the deaths of Muslims in the rioting that followed the mosque's destruction.
"India and Pakistan are in a prewar situation," said Michael Krepon, a South Asia expert at the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington. "The troops are ready to fight. Conditions have been publicly set for demobilization that have not been met. Musharraf has overplayed his hand. The Americans are preoccupied elsewhere. And key figures in the Indian government are spoiling for a fight."
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.