First, allow me to say that this was a superb analysis, far beyond my poor power to duplicate. How and ever, allow me to comment... The campaign to take Kashmir from India is being waged on two fronts: one for national purposes by the Pakistani Army, using conventional means; another for Islamic purposes using terrorist tactics. The recent Indian response has been largely symbolic, probably because of a lack of political consensus and military preparation required to support a decisive response, and partly in the hope that the a 9/11 energized America could rein in the Pakistanis.
Conquest of the Kashmir is this far-off nationalist wish-dream of the Pakistani populace that bubbles up from time to time in the long-running border war that has occured since 1947.
Musharraf is the front man for a divided government. Despite his Kemalist leanings, I'm not sure that he has the support within the military to suppress the jihadists within his country, much less within the Army. For example, I would guess that it's holy writ among Western Intelligence personnel that half the ISI is leaking information to the Al-Qaeda.
In recent months, the Indians may have redressed their operational deficiencies and gained strength. In the meantime, Musharaff has attained another term, the US has increased its presence in Pakistan and the Al-Qaeda have been penetrated; which is to say the agressive factions have lost strength.
I'm not so sure about al Qaeda, if only because I'm not so sure how successful we've been in penetrating the Northwest Frontier. And our presence in Pakistan is a double-edged sword: what do we do if India invades and Pakistan demands that we help defend her as quid pro quo for their help (such as it is) on the war on Terror.
The Indian buildup looks like preparation to administer a relatively short, but brutal incursion into Pakistani-controlled territory. The idea would be to humiliate the irridentist factions in Pakistan. It's success will critically depend on the performance of the Indian Army. They have to put the Pakistani Army on the ropes within a very short time without escalating to nuclear weapons to give the US a chance to step in and broker a settlement which will essentially oust the agressive elements of the Pakistani army and government.
This will be a hell of an act to pull off. The Indian Army is better known for its grinding power than its lightning tempo. It may soon be taking the stage to demonstrate how it can balance six spinning plates from a 30 foot pole. The real danger lies in two places: the possibility that the Indian Army will become bogged down and enhance the prestige of the irredentists; or the the chance that the cheap command and control mechanism of Pakistan will break down and fire off nukes. Then all the bets are off.
Indeed, one of the problems with the Small Fry having nuclear weapons is that personal honor and national prestige can sometimes be used as excuses for firing weaponry.
One gets the impression by watching the Indian Army that Bernard Law Montgomery is in command, plodding along, and one does pine for the presence of a George Patton.
I would not blame the Indians if they did attack in the Kashmir. Islamabad cannot, cannot control the irredentists, and many members of the government are actually supporting the Kashmiri seperatists.
Finally, I am of the opinion that India's incursion into Kashmir could involve airmobile troops to provide an airhead behind the lines coinciding with a broad front thrust by Indian infantry into the Indus headwaters region. Meanwhile, in the south, India will gather its Panzer reserve to concentrate Pakistani minds and divide Pakistani forces. The Panzer reserve will not move west unless the Pakistanis use nuclear weapons or move troops into Indian territory.
Just my take.
Be Seeing You,
Chris