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To: aristeides
This could be like the opening of World War One.

I think you are right. Serbian nationalist terrorists killed an Austrian leader. (Bosnia was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Serbia claimed it). Austria demanded that Serbia make concessions, and Serbia refused. Austria and Serbia started shooting, then the system of alliances committed all of Europe to the fight. There are no alliances involved here, but it is a regional dispute that could get totally out of hand.

36 posted on 05/30/2002 5:32:07 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla;aristeides
The assassination of Ahmed Shah Massoud, head of the Northern Alliance, on Sept 9 2001 could be the equivalent of that Sarajevo assassination.

Recently, someone(pakistani, maybe) in England was arrested for providing fake credentials to the Northern Alliance for the jihadi 'TV" crew that had a bomb inside their camera.

43 posted on 05/30/2002 5:51:50 PM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla
Austria demanded that Serbia make concessions, and Serbia refused. Austria and Serbia started shooting, then the system of alliances committed all of Europe to the fight.

Close, but not quite. In fact, Serbia accepted the terms of Austria's ultimatum of 23 July 1914, but Austria declared war anyway.

The text of the ultimatum can be found here, and Serbia's reply here.

One of the (many) unlearned lessons of the Great War is that there is a watershed moment when war becomes inevitable. On the one side, there is still room for diplomacy, concessions, and peacemakers. On the other side, the logic of events is irresistible, and there is nothing anyone can do to avert catastrophe.

In my opinion, for what it's worth, the statement yesterday by the Indian minister Naidhu that "not even an inch of Kashmir would be conceded" was the moment at which we crossed the watershed. I am deeply pessimistic.

83 posted on 05/30/2002 7:23:20 PM PDT by John Locke
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