Posted on 07/25/2002 5:27:33 PM PDT by RCW2001
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| JULY 26, 2002 | | current issue | back issues | subscribe | |
Us and Dems: Jews Still Not Voting GOP
By IRA FORMAN"It seems clear that, come November 7, hundreds upon thousands of Jews will be violating the Eleventh Commandment: Thou shalt not vote Republican."
"There is an evolution away from the [notion] that it's immoral to vote conservative, or that you must as a Jew vote Democratic."
"Jewish voters... are finding the Republican Party increasingly attractive."
The above declarations could have been lifted from any one of scores of op-eds, news articles or analysis pieces that have appeared in the national media over the last two months. But they were not. They are quotes from conservative spokesmen, pulled from stories published during the last three decades in such periodicals as the National Journal and The New York Times.
But despite these 30 years of prediction of a Republican realignment in the Jewish community, the last ten years have witnessed a resurgence of Jewish support for Democratic candidates. According to the one definitive survey of American Jewish voting, the VNS exit poll data from the 1972-2002 elections, Jews have gone from voting 2-1 Democratic in the 1970s and 1980s to 3-1 or 4-1 in the 1990s and the 2000 election.
From this data, one might assume that this phenomenon — ongoing false predictions of Jewish Republican voting — is more a reflection of the wishful thinking of Republican Jews who have been wandering in the political wilderness for 80 years than of any real sustained voting patterns.
The first clue to this wishful thinking is the changing reasons given over time for the impending shift in voting patterns. In the past we were told that Jews were becoming Republicans because they were becoming the wealthiest subsection of American society and thus were beginning to vote their pocketbooks. Later, when the rise of incomes did not induce rising Republicanism, we were told that Jews would switch to the GOP because of increasing antagonism between the community and African American Democratic politicians like Jesse Jackson. Now we are asked to believe that the reason for the "coming" change in allegiance is because Republicans and the Christian right love Israel and Democrats don't.
A second manifestation of this wishful thinking is a willingness to distort reality and engage in blatant double standards. An example of this new type of "analysis" that purports to find reasons for Jews becoming Republicans was a column published in The New York Times in April of this year titled "Democrats v. Israel." In this "analysis," Democratic Majority Leader Tom Daschle was charged with sabotaging pro-Israel legislation. Not only was the charge completely false, but Daschle was the one who broke the logjam blocking the "Israel Solidarity" legislation that passed both the House and Senate in May.
Moreover, many of the conservative analysts who derided former Democratic president Bill Clinton for policies such as refusing to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem or for trying to forge a peace agreement at Camp David in 2000 are the same folks who are strangely silent as Republican President Bush continues the Clinton policy on the embassy move and as his administration takes up the banner of creating "Palestine" as part of their own sponsorship of a peace process.
Finally, these analysts are unmasked by their creative use of voting statistics. Rather than rely on the one universally accepted set of Jewish voting data — the VNS exit polls — these folks fall back on fatally flawed partisan research, using studies with sample sizes that are so small that they are meaningless, or citing mayoral election statistics to prove changing partisan proclivities. The latter method is particularly misleading. Even in earlier decades when Jews were voting 90% Democratic in congressional and presidential elections, they continued to sometimes vote for Republican candidates for city offices — the same pattern we are seeing today. Local issues, not partisan affiliations, drive municipal elections.
When all is said and done these Republican Jewish predictions are wrong because they avoid examining the basic structure of American politics. At the beginning of the 21st century, the Republican Party draws the base of its support from the religious right. Thus 90% of the agenda of the GOP is diametrically opposed to the agenda of 90% of American Jewry.
As long as the Tom DeLays of the Republican Party accompany their support for Israel with the advice that "Christianity offers the only viable, reasonable, definitive answer" to life's questions, American Jews will find a viable, reasonable and definitive rationale to vote for pro-Israel Democratic alternatives.
Ira Forman is executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council and co-editor of the "Jews In American Politics" (Rowman & Littlefield, 2001).
Welcome to racial politics. Get used to it. Thanks to immigration, this country is becoming less white.
It figures some people can't get over their prejudices...I say this as a Pro-Isreal, Pro-Netanyahu, Pro-Traficant, Pro-Demanyuk (he wasn't Ivan), anti-McKinney, anti-the house of Saud, Catholic (secret jew, LOL) Repubican from a historically Democrat family.
Now it should be easier for non-Jews to understand. A high percentage of the U.S. Jewish community only sees its Jewishness in the sense of its leftism. This is particularly true among younger Reform Jews - so much so that an Orthodox rabbi said in a Jewish magazine recently that many people gravitate to Reform temples only because they are the "address" (his word) for their politics, not for the religious tenets that Reform Judaism supposedly is.
"Not to quibble, bu the anti-communist left."
That's a small plus, I guess, but I'm not much mollified.
As a member of both the Republican Jewish Coalition and a Reform temple, I am recently finding this matter of Jewish politics very interesting.
If so, that makes them, as I believe, still sympathetic to the "philosophy" if not the fact of communism. After all, they are believers in socialism. Communism does not really differ much from "socialism," as it is, after all, a type of socialism.
Excellent point.
As a member of a Reform temple, I find the issues you raise here fairly compelling, not to say disturbing. I have had some discussion with my rabbi (who is a leftist but a nice guy) on this subject, but usually find that not so many people really want to talk about it. Do you mind if I freepmail you on it?
That's a small plus, I guess, but I'm not much mollified.
It is imnportant. The Forward played a key role in preventing American Labor from going communist in the Cold War and in the creation of anti-communist and pro-independence labour unions in the Warsaw Pact. The Forward and affiliated groups known as "free labor" funded Solidarity.
No, there are plenty of non-communist traditions in the left: Anarchism, Democratic Socialism, and the welfare state.
If so, that makes them, as I believe, still sympathetic to the "philosophy" if not the fact of communism. After all, they are believers in socialism. Communism does not really differ much from "socialism," as it is, after all, a type of socialism.
You should read up on the actual actions of the Communist part and their fronts. They murdered thousands of non-Communist leftists. There is no greater conflict than internicine ones where one side is totalitarian in nature.
It depends on how you define the Israeli right.
It is an amalgamation of Nationalist, Relgious groups, and classical liberals.
The religious parties are not opposed to welfare and the Natioanlist are not liberatarians. However, they take cultural positions far to the right of the GOP.
The Likud Party, the standard-bearer of the right, is free-market.
When judging Israeli politics, you must understand that Israel has been at war for its entire existance and that socialists were in power for the first 30 years.
"You should read up on the actual actions of the Communist part and their fronts. They murdered thousands of non-Communist leftists. There is no greater conflict than internicine ones where one side is totalitarian in nature."
My opinion is that all leftist (socialist) philosophy, if applied, results in a tendency toward totalitarianism or a decrease in individual liberty, which is essentially the same thing. I undersand that many Leftists disagree, while others do agree, but don't make it public, as they wish to reap the rewards of authority. So I would say that there are elements of totalitarianism in any Leftist "side," even if unintentional.
"No, there are plenty of non-communist traditions in the left: Anarchism, Democratic Socialism, and the welfare state."
Nevertheless, there has been and still is considerable sympathy for commmunist regimes in the American Left. Certainly, after Stalin's death, when the truth became public, many Leftists took an anti communist position that they hadn't before.
Regarding Forward, I guess I'm glad to hear that they played a role in preventing unions from going communist during the cold war. But, as they are still actively engaged in the attempt to convert America to a more leftist state, I am unable to summon much admiration for them. Do you know what their position was during the thirties?
"It depends on how you define the Israeli right. "
I don't really define them, however perhaps you could for me, I would take it as a favor. My rabbi once told our congregation, with a smile, that Israel was a socialist state. At the time, that was news to me, but I believe it to be true. In that environment I am pretty unsure of what would be meant by the "Right." If they are anti socialist, then I'm all for them. I've heard Netanyahu speak on the radio a few times and been very favorably impressed.
I'm aware that Israel has been in a "survival" situation for the entire 54 years of its existence though I'm not too sure how that relates to its socialism. I personally despise socialism, yet I find that I am able to hold the highest admiration for Israel, on many levels.
Forgive me for going on so long.
1. Notice that I stated in my post that I was "Not getting into whys and hows, just the sad facts."
2. Notice also that I did not mention W, instead used the general term "Republicans"
Now, let me expand a little...
W is still remarkably well-liked within American Muslim circles. If Muslims feel betrayed it is not by George W, and certainly not merely a matter of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Where the feeling of betrayal comes is the rather harsh attitude of Congressional Republicans, and the language and tone of the mainstream conservative press, which is widely read by the Muslim community. (Remember the Muslim community here in America is not the same as it is in Europe. I would venture to say that Muslim Americans tend to be among the top three ethno/religious minorites when it comes to education and affluence-- behind the Jews and the Japanese)
So, when senior writers in conservative magazines say things like "they put their ethnicity/religion above loyalty to the country". (by the way, does that sound familiar to you Jews?)Or, you hear a thoughtful sounding discussion of the value of nuking of Mecca, Muslim opinion leaders-- the business class, the doctors-- who have long been the vigilant defenders of this community from the infiltration by poverty pimps and racial hucksters of the left, they find themselves very alone.
My personal feeling is that walking away from the political process would be a disaster. It would assure that the country would drift further into greater moral ferment and toward the statist capitalism of Europe. And it would also assure that where we have little say about foreign policy now, our departure from politics would guarantee we will have none.
Now, this is the part where I deconstruct a number of your statements 1. U.S. Muslims mistakenly thought the Dems were soft on Israel and they dreamed that "Bush + Oil = Screw the Jews"?
Unlike many public-school educated Americans today, American Muslims have a sense of history. To them the idealized Republican party is the party of Eisenhower who put America's long term national security and strategic interests ahead of the priorities of any domestic political pressure group.
Eisenhower asked a key question whose answer is self-evident: How does supporting Israel benefit us? American Muslims believed that Bush 41 and Jim Baker shared that view, and believed that the son of Bush would not take policy stances diametrically different than those of his father. We were wrong, but then the Israel-Palestine mess was not and is not the key motivator of the Muslim vote.
2. You feel betrayed by the Republicans who have bent over backwards to avoid saying the obvious, that this is a Holy War between civilizations?
It isn't a holy war between civilizations, it's a war between humanity against a religion created by the House of Saud. It's not the Turks, or the Iranians, or the Bahrainis, or the Paks crashing airplanes into buildings, it's a bunch of guys who owe intellectual alleigance to the Wahabbis of Saudi Arabia and Egypt. My big problem with this war is that we're running around-- sorry have to run 3. 19 guys don't run around for months praying and buying Hallal food and don't get noticed by the American Muslim community. American Muslims not only didn't do anything to stop it, they actively encouraged it.
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