Venezuela faces civil war on road to democracy

THE fervor for "regime change" in Iraq is spreading to another oil-producing nation: Venezuela.

President Hugo Chavez's increasingly beleaguered government is losing traction daily as the Democratic Coordinator -- an umbrella opposition group of business, labor and civil society -- smothers Venezuela's petroleum-driven economy in a perpetual general strike that intends to induce regime change, possibly at the cost of protracted civil strife. [Editor's note: Venezuela's Supreme Court ordered a temporary halt to an oil industry strike on Thursday.]

The White House recently advocated holding early presidential elections. Washington thus aligned itself with the opposition and offended the Chavez government by meddling in its affairs and effectively sanctioning an extraconstitutional act.

With or without Chavez, Venezuela faces myriad challenges to a return to being governed democratically.

The once-fractured Democratic Coordinator is emboldened and seems poised to repeat its ill-conceived April coup effort when it pronounces that Chavez is an autocrat who does not govern democratically and must go, whatever the cost to Venezuela. The mercurial president will not step down or be embarrassed into resigning; it is his destiny, he believes, to lead Venezuela's poor majority out of misery and defeat those who undermine his efforts.

With or without Chavez, Venezuela's oil industry, National Assembly, labor unions, judiciary and military are divided over how the country should be governed.

Indeed, while the Chavez-led "Bolivarian revolution" might soon be dead, the president's impact on Venezuela has transcended the visceral association many lower-class supporters feel because of his mestizo skin color and anti-establishment rhetoric. It's important to recognize that the proverbial genie is out the bottle, and Venezuela's poor majority will demand that fundamental social issues be addressed.

During the two-day April coup, which was tacitly supported by the United States, the interim administration of business leader Pedro Carmona looked and acted like a 1950s Latin American civil-military junta, dissolving the National Assembly, throwing out the Supreme Court and unabashedly representing the elite. The opposition still wants the whole system revamped, from the name of the country -- "Bolivarian State of Venezuela" -- to the assembly and constitution.

If the opposition again sacks the president, Chavez's supporters -- at least a third of the population, which in April took to the streets and brought their leader back to office -- will not hesitate to bear arms for the first president to offer them a legitimate stake in national politics.

Only if Chavez is removed through constitutional or electoral means would Venezuela be able to mitigate the chaos of regime change. No matter how he falls, moderates in both camps would be seriously weakened and the country would still face enormous challenges the day after.

A telltale sign of Venezuela's inability to be governed democratically is that no military or civilian official involved in the April coup has been jailed. Trials against military officials and depositions of civilian officials involved are subsumed by polemics. Establishing an objective truth commission is subordinate to political agendas.

The media in Venezuela are another example of the nation's endemic governability problem. In fact, the only sector of Venezuela not divided is the media, which are united by their virulent anti-Chavez position. The media's partisan role has undermined efforts to facilitate a rational political dialogue and helped radicals in both camps.

For his part, Chavez, after promising to moderate his polarizing rhetoric in April, has failed to create an atmosphere of reconciliation and dialogue. The opposition's obstinacy and coup-mongering, nevertheless, are an inexcusable war of attrition on weak democratic institutions.

So should Chavez go? He is, after all, the democratically elected leader who has not breached the constitution.

So again Venezuela faces civil war or dialogue. With hesitant and muted diplomacy from the United States and fruitless mediation efforts led by the Organization of American States, the former is more likely.

McCarthy is a research associate in Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C.

Opposition demonstrators march through oil town Cabimas in western Venezuela, Thursday, Dec. 19, 2002, on the 18th day of a general strike seeking the ouster of President Hugo Chavez. An effigy of Chavez is seen hanging by his neck at right. (AP Photo/Ana Maria Otero)

A President Hugo Chavez's supporter holds a picture of him besides Cuban President Fidel Castro, in Caracas, December 16, 2002. Foes of Chavez blocked highways causing traffic chaos as they stepped up a nationwide strike that crippled the oil industry. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

June 9, 2001Fervor Fading Over Venezuela's Chavez--trucking in "supporters" giving marathon speeches [Full Text] CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - After three weeks abroad, President Hugo Chavez received a noisy airport welcome from 2,000 Venezuelans - many of them culled from the streets or trucked in from the countryside to attend. Car horns blaring, they followed Chavez to the presidential palace, where he delivered yet another marathon speech hailing his leftist revolution to liberate this South American nation from corruption and poverty. Yet the June 2 party, like several in recent months, paled in comparison to the celebrations of a year ago, when tens of thousands engulfed the charismatic leader at every turn, wearing his trademark red beret and begging personal favors.

Labor unrest, poverty, rampant crime and government turmoil have disenchanted many who believed that Chavez, a fiery orator and former paratrooper, could save Venezuela when he was overwhelmingly elected in 1998. Most Venezuelans savored Chavez's promises of revenge against a political elite accused of squandering Venezuela's vast oil wealth over the decades and impoverishing half its 24 million people.

At Chavez's urging, an enthralled public voted six times in two years to change the constitution, create a docile legislature, stack state governorships and the Supreme Court with loyalists and approve a plan to dismantle labor unions he called corrupt. While few leaders can sustain high ratings two years after taking office, Chavez enjoys continued high popularity marks. But recent polls give him poorer grades for job performance. Chavez addressed the issue during his homecoming speech, insisting that his popularity ``would never fall because Chavez is no longer Chavez. Chavez is the people.'' Increasingly, such rhetoric is frustrating key Chavez supporters - and has created unprecedented friction within his political coalition.

``Change in Venezuela can no longer be an expectation or a campaign promise. It has to be expressed in public policy,'' Felipe Mujica, president of the government-aligned Movement Toward Socialism party, said in a recent interview. In a major break in the ranks, Mujica's party accused Chavez of inciting unrest when Chavez threatened in May to grab more power by declaring a ``state of emergency'' designed to fight crime and raise living standards. Chavez has yet to make good on that threat, but he stunned many by announcing he is creating a new political movement to refresh his bond with the people. Chavez gave the new ``Bolivarian Revolutionary Movement'' the vague task of organizing Venezuelans into ``patriotic circles'' to ``defend the revolution.''

Shocked leaders of Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement scrambled to deny he was abandoning his party. But Guillermo Garcia Ponce, the new movement's head, said the Fifth Republic relied too heavily on the president's charisma and didn't bother to amass grass-roots support. ``The president feels the need to give a new impulse, a new ideological air to the Bolivarian Revolution,'' Garcia Ponce said, referring to the socio-economic changes he is pushing under the name of the 19th-century South American liberator Simon Bolivar.

The new movement has the same name as an underground group Chavez led as a lieutenant colonel in the 1980s - and used in 1992 to spearhead an unsuccessful coup that catapulted him to national fame. Congress President Willian Lara admits the Fifth Republic Movement was barely an organized political party when Chavez won the presidency in 1998. Once in power, its inexperienced legislators accomplished little, in part because they are struggling to adapt hundreds of old laws to the new constitution. The Fifth Republic's inexperience was most obvious when it failed to seize control of opposition-aligned trade unions, an objective Chavez considered a cornerstone of his revolution.

Calling union bosses ``corrupt pigs,'' Chavez won a national referendum in December to suspend them and hold new union elections. But 80 percent of Venezuelan voters abstained, making it impossible for the disorganized government to enforce the result. Then the Fifth Republic abandoned plans to participate in the union elections - largely because it has no leaders in Venezuela's labor movement - and decided to create a rival union instead. That effort has sputtered. This year's Fifth Republic May Day parade was a bust, barely filling two city blocks and vanishing when Chavez failed to appear. Last year, Chavez's May Day parade nearly stretched across Caracas.

Chavez insists his political reforms have paved the way for deeper, structural changes. Most Venezuelans are still willing to give him time, but many are beginning to wonder if the revolution just means redecorating the political scenery. ``I voted for Chavez because I wanted a change. I used to get so excited listening to him. Today I turn off the television when he's talking,'' said Lisbeth Morales, who recently lost her job as a sales executive. ``The streets are still dirty. We're still afraid of leaving our houses because of crime.'' [End]

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

Negotiations in Venezuela*** The Bolivarian Revolution that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez pledged to launch has boomeranged. After recovering from a short-lived McCoup in April, Mr. Chavez has faced escalating opposition. On Saturday, more than 1 million demonstrators rallied against Mr. Chavez, and an ongoing oil strike, which began Dec. 2, has paralyzed the country financially. Earlier this month, three anti-Chavez protesters were shot dead by government loyalists. If a deal isn't reached soon between Mr. Chavez and the discontented, the political future of Venezuela will be decided on the streets ? and blood-drenched streets they could be. The question remains, then, how should the United States weigh in? Venezuela is, particularly now, central to U.S. interests, since it is the world's fifth-largest oil producer and supplies America with 14 percent of its imported oil. Crude oil futures have risen past the psychologically significant $30 level, primarily as a result of the turmoil in Venezuela.***

Venezuela faces civil war on road to democracy *** For his part, Chavez, after promising to moderate his polarizing rhetoric in April, has failed to create an atmosphere of reconciliation and dialogue. The opposition's obstinacy and coup-mongering, nevertheless, are an inexcusable war of attrition on weak democratic institutions. So should Chavez go? He is, after all, the democratically elected leader who has not breached the constitution. Crisis calls for immediate measures.

The Bush administration's public call for early presidential elections bolstered the opposition, agitated the president and indirectly undermined a pro-government but moderate representative's constitutional amendment proposal for early elections. Chavez is loath to appear in concert with a U.S. policy torn between oil interests and a thinly veiled preference for regime change. The recalcitrant opposition refuses to wait for August, when a binding referendum on Chavez's rule can be held. So again Venezuela faces civil war or dialogue. With hesitant and muted diplomacy from the United States and fruitless mediation efforts led by the Organization of American States, the former is more likely. ***

Check out his middle name. Not that that's bad or anything......

Here's more: Chávez camp sees Venezuelan situation less critical than foes ……….Inside the president's compound, soldiers with rifles patrol the grounds around the main palace, a square one-story building set around a Moorish-styled fountain, and a newer office tower. ''There's not that much work now, not so many public functions and more meetings inside the palace,'' one presidential photographer said. The strike demanding that Chávez resign or call early elections has cut the world's fifth largest oil industry to 30 percent of its normal output, shuttered stores and factories and blocked streets and highways

César Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States, has repeatedly warned of widespread violence if the negotiations he's overseeing between Chávez and opposition envoys do not reach agreement soon. But the presidential guard sergeant's easy flirting on Wednesday underscored the view in Miraflores that Chávez's vast shuffling of military commanders this summer thwarted any chance of another coup. ''The president's people really believe they are over that hump, something that gives them time to dig in and break the strike,'' said a Western diplomat who meets often with government officials.

Chávez brands his opponents as a small group of corrupt rich people and labor leaders bent on triggering another coup and ending his leftist ''Bolivarian Revolution'' on behalf of Venezuela's poor majority. Like most Chávez supporters, Max Arvelaiz, a French native who works in the palace as an advisor to the Ministry of the Presidency, does not perceive the situation outside as critical as the president's foes. ''We know that anything can still happen. We are going through a deep crisis,'' Arvelaiz said, ``but things are starting to move in our favor, and when [the opposition] decided to strike, we knew it was something crazy, their last chance.''***

Venezuela's strike heads to gas pump - No end in sight*** ……………But the strike at PDVSA is the key. PDVSA produces 87 percent of the country's oil and gas, and accounts for 70 percent of the government's revenues. The price of gas in Venezuela is regulated and thus remains stable, but supplies are dwindling and lines are growing. The country has few gasoline-storage facilities because no one ever expected an oil-flush nation would need them. Other important sectors of the economy, such as mining, require natural gas for production - and without it they are being forced to shut down. In addition, many domestic commercial flights have been canceled.

Other businesses are being affected indirectly. Dr. Martínez says he just got off the phone with a manager at a major Venezuelan bank who is unable to transport money because he can't find diesel fuel for the trucks. "All segments of the economy are feeling it very strongly, in spite of what the government says," he says. "They know that this is very critical." As more and more shops shut down in support of the strike, worried residents are stocking up on groceries and other necessities. To prevent hoarding, Chávez yesterday ordered military officials to seize any vehicle delivering gas or food. Opposition leaders claim they are allowing enough basic supplies through their blockades to meet the population's needs. But there is talk of power outages in parts of Caracas. And every day there are protests and marches in the streets.

Ricardo Hausmann, an economics professor at Harvard University and former Venezuelan planning minister, says the situation was inevitable. The economy has been in a tailspin since Chávez took power in 1998, contracting 15 percent - a full 7 percent of that coming this year alone. "This is completely unprecedented for us," he says, "because essentially we have a president who's trying to lead a country in a radical course for which he has no mandate: destroying the economy and a sense of shared values." Mr. Hausmann says it's hard to imagine a resolution to the crisis with Chávez remaining in power. He believes the president, in true Latin American fashion, wants to be overthrown rather than beaten at the ballot box. ……..***

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