Posted on 03/26/2003 5:26:28 AM PST by a_Turk
When we are in dire straits, we say, with a fatalistic approach, that God works in mysterious ways, that every dark cloud has a silver lining. It is true that when some doors get closed, some others get opened. Here is a look at two significant developments:
1. ECONOMIC INITIATIVE:
The main impact of the Iraq War will be on our economy. The situation will tense up with each passing day. Besides, we are not in a position to seek aid from anybody. We will have to make do with our own resources.
Turkey can put this opportunity to good use. This is the time to be nationalistic. This is what genuine, contemporary nationalism is all about.
The AK Party government can launch a full economic mobilization. It can adopt an austerity program for the state, a program that would transcend even the IMF targets. However, that cannot be done only on paper. Issuing circulars would not suffice. That can be achieved by suspending all budgetary spending except in the case of the funds needed for day-to-day spending.
Such a campaign would not only inspire confidence in the people but would also improve Turkey's position in the international markets. That can prevent the Turkish Eurobonds from losing value.
If the AK Party puts this opportunity to good use not only it will have greatly boosted the country's morale but also it will be able to save itself. Until now it has been criticized for being "inexperienced", "incompetent" and "undecided." Now it can take control of the country.
2. INTERVENTION IN NORTHERN IRAQ:
Ankara's biggest worry was that an independent Kurdish state would be established in Northern Iraq and Turkomans would not have a say in the Baghdad administration in the post-Saddam Period. Due to these worries it had planned (in the framework of the first troop deployment motion) to send some 40,000 troops into Northern Iraq (on the condition that these would be sent only together with the U.S. troops.) When Parliament rejected the motion that agreement was killed.
From now on it is out of the question for Turkey to put a 40,000-strong force into Northern Iraq. Negotiations will be held with America and the Turkish army will be deployed along the border to prevent a migration wave.
Some of us criticize this situation, arguing that we have missed an opportunity, that we will not be able to control the Northern Iraqi developments, that we will not be able to intervene if Kurds declare independence.
I view the situation differently.
Even if the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) were able to cross into Northern Iraq and to maintain there a significant military presence, that would still be a limited operation. We would not be able to deploy our forces throughout Northern Iraq. More importantly, it would be as if we were sending those thousands of troops into a quagmire.
Some of the Kurdish groups, for example the PKK-KADEK militants, might harass our troops, firing on them as a provocation. They might try to provoke the Turkish troops into responding with fire. Then they would tell the international community, "See, Turks are killing Kurds!" The world would be up in arms. They would try to push the Turkish troops into a marsh land.
Is there any need to fight with the Northern Iraqi Kurds? Here is another issue to ponder:
"In a Northern Iraq controlled by the U.S. troops, could the Turkish army make a move and nip in the bud a potential attempt to declare independence?"
This question is very important because it would make us confront certain facts.
It is no secret anymore that it will not be possible to declare independence in a Northern Iraq dominated by the Americans militarily and economically. Washington has given satisfactory assurances. Assuming that the USA has changed its policy and accepted the Kurds' independence decision.
How would the Turkish forces in the region be able to prevent such a formation? They would have to clash with the American troops, wouldn't they?
Probably it is better that we are being left out of this quagmire.
What is needed is a new approach to Northern Iraq, to the Kurds A brand new world is being built right in front of us. Since we do not want to take part in this new formation we are outside rather than being at the table. These days the western world is definitely opposing Turkey sending more troops into Northern Iraq.
All the signals coming from Ankara indicate that Turkey does not intend to enter Northern Iraq unilaterally. The chief of staff speaks in a crystal clear manner. Yet no one seems to be satisfied.
Why?
Don't they trust us anymore? Or is it that our officials speak more than they should, that words uttered with domestic political considerations make an impact abroad?
The dust has not settled yet.
Meanwhile, we are entering a brand new period. The world will be a quite different place. Everything will change, the balances, the topics being discussed, the current approaches.
Now let us ask ourselves. In this new world should we keep up our old ideas and cliches? Or should we view this new world with a new approach?
There is no need for us to hurry.
Let us wait and see how the war will end. Then let us take a decision.
How should we view Northern Iraq?
Should we change our approach to the Kurdish problems in the region in general and to the Kurdish problem in our own country in particular?
It is high time we broke certain taboos, is it not? Would not the taboos "crash" on us if we failed to break and alter some of them?
You can watch this guys mind working here. Yes, probably it is better to not get killed.
Excellent question. A new approach in a new century in a new middle east is exactly what is needed.
Apparently he only reads the cartoons.
At this point, Turkey needs to simply sit this war out. The wave of refugees has not materialized, and it won't. The refugee camps in Jordan are empty. Nobody is leaving.
So, the justification for Turkey to intervene is illusory. It's not needed, and would only be harmful. If Turkey really wants to isolate itself from Europe, as well as America, it should definitely enter Iraq in force. That would certainly do it.
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