Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[glock rocks]

Virginia beach pier is getting torn up. MSNBC.

[Howlin]

You're going to need a picture to prove that.

[iceskater]

Really? Worse than Gore? That's hard to imagine....

[ShakeNJake]

Spoken like a person who has never been through a hurricane. I was born and raised in Portsmouth, Va, but have lived in Texas for 25 years now. I have been through hurricanes, typhoons (while in the P.I.), tornados and Texas spring storms.

While we do get high winds during spring thunderstorms, those winds only blow through for a very short time as spring storms move very quickly. Sometimes, 5-15 minutes is all while the thunderstorm moves through an area. This does damage roofs and bring down trees, but since the time period involved is so short, the damage is minimal.

A hurricane blows for a much longer period of time as it moves through an area. Thus, the damage potential and threat to life is much greater from both the winds and the rain/storm surges/flooding.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

Ususally the air feels "balmy," if you understand. I mean, it's almost like you can "feel" the tropics in the air.

We were able to get just a whiff of that tropical ocean air here in the WNC mountains during Floyd, but it hasn't come in yet with Isabel -- this afternoon, maybe.

We are seeing the outermost bands of clounds from Isabel in the upper atmosphere now, just above the ridgeline of the Blue Ridge -- skies to the west are sunny and clear, temps in the 50s moving into the 60s. Sorry you folks in the east aren't sharing our mountain weather today!

[Gabz]

There were trees down yesterday and the wind was only 23mph in the afternoon.

We had such severe flooding 2 weeks ago and then a heep of rain last friday and saturday - I'm seriously worried about the trees.

A couple of the locals were talking on Monday and Tuesday and bemoaning the fact that there has not been enough long term growth for the new trees that have been planted to replace what had been removed.

[Howlin]

He speaks as if he's had a prefrontal lobotomy. Absolutely no emotion.

[xsmommy]

every state has their own goofballs. you just have a few more out there! gravitational pull or high tide or some such ; )

[Howlin]

Take a picture!

[iceskater]

Then it sounds like soil erosion could be another big problem for you.

[HoHoeHeaux]

My sister lives in Chesapeake, her daughter in Richmond. She has gone to Richmond but BIL stayed behind. They have already lost a tree in their yard so the winds are fierce. In Richmond all shops are still open. Stay safe all! And thanks to everyoen here for keeping us updated. I am channel surfing and usually watch Fox but CNN seems to have this covered more thoroughly.

[TBall]

I don't want to turn on all the lady Freepers.

[Hatteras]

The first rescue of Hurricane Isabel has already taken place:

Hurricane Isabel's Visit
An updated report from the village
September 18, 2003

11am update - Water levels continue to rise. High winds and high water forced our neighbor Marsh Shirk to rescue the Duck pond ducks from under her home. Click here

[xsmommy]

oh c'mon. we can take it! we need distracting from the storm anyway!

[Howlin]

I'll take that as a "can't prove it." :-)

[iceskater]

In Richmond all shops are still open.

Heck, they're even going ahead with the planned opening of a new shopping mall today! I would've thought they would've postponed but noooooo. Needless to say, I'm not heading to the new mall today. Those people are nuts.

[Jonah Hex]

OK, we just lost power. I'm signing off and shutting down.

See you on the other side of the storm!

[honeygrl]

the eye has now hit land.

[Howlin]

Wonder why she didn't move them yesterday?

And I also wonder if Tennessee Ronnie is his given name. :-)

[Jonah Hex]

Signing off from Newport News, VA.