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ELECTION SIMULATION UPDATEDLast simulation with pre-RNC data. Kerry win probability is 63.7%, average electoral votes, 279-259. These numbers are slightly closer than the Composite Analysis of 281-257, indicating that more electoral votes in Kerry's column are toss-ups than in Bush's column (see, e.g. Florida). Federal Review Election Simulation 20,000 trials August 31, 2004 Probable Election Winner: John F. Kerry John F. Kerry George W. Bush Bush Kerry Tie Probability of Winning 35.0% 63.7% 1.3% Average Electoral Votes 259 279 95% Confidence Lo Hi Maximum Electoral Votes 358 373 Kerry Range 227 330 Minimum Electoral Votes 165 180 Bush Range 208...

THE BOUNCE HITS THE ELECTORAL VOTE  Bush 47.5% – 246 EV | Kerry 49.8% – 292 EV EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 216| Kerry 250| Toss 72 July 20, 2004 Florida finally slips over into the Kerry column after weeks of hanging out with Bush despite the popular vote swing toward Kerry. But, as predicted last week, the Edwards bounce has arrived in the electoral college, where Kerry now leads 292-246. You'll also notice a change in the above graphic. Despite the convenience (and now cliché) of referring to "Red States" and "Blue States", I've...

THE OSCILLATING RACE  Bush 47.17% - 256 | Kerry 48.66% - 282 June 15, 2004 Last week, Kerry lead the composite poll by 1.54% and this week, he leads by 1.49%, but the electoral vote picture has switched from last week's Bush lead of 281-257 to a Kerry lead of 282-256. While the state by state picture continues to oscillate between the candidates, there's been a clear trend in Kerry's favor in the national composite results, but that trend has slowed and for the last month, there hasn't been much change.This week's composite poll includes the suspicious LA Times...

KERRY SURGE FALLS SHORT  Bush 47.77% - 274 | Kerry 48.52% - 264 June 1, 2004 From the May 11 to the May 18 Composite Polls, there was a net change of 4.13% in favor of Kerry, taking him from a deficit of 1.41% to a lead of 2.72% -- the highest lead for either candidate since I began tracking the numbers on March 8. Since the Composite Poll methodology constrains weekly swings by factoring in the previous week's composite result, this should be seen as a significant swing to Kerry. That week, Kerry led by 5 in the...

From Federal Review: SECRETARY OF DEFENSE JAMES A. BAKER III The Washingtonian's gossip column is reporting that Washington insiders think that Donald Rumsfeld will be replaced in midsummer by former White House Chief of Staff, Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State James Baker. This strikes me as a smart move (if you must throw Rummy over) that would be help Bush politically, and may have positive results for our relations in the middle east. The press seems impressed with Jim Baker (though they'd probably mention the 2000 Florida mess in every story about his nomination), the news might come near...

KERRY TAKES THE LEAD  Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284 May 25, 2004 Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last week’s 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan...

Turn Toward Kerry  Bush 46.83 | Kerry 49.45May 18, 2004The polls are heading Kerry's way, as he gets his biggest lead this week in the Composite Poll. Bush maintains a very slight lead in the Electoral Vote -- held up by state polling. If Arkansas falls into the Kerry column, we'd have a tied race, and the House of Representatives would supplant the Electoral College. Now, to the data.This Week’s Polls Zogby Newsweek CNN/Time Rasmussen Research Iowa Electronic Market Last Week’s Poll FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics CNN / USA Today / Gallup Rasmussen Research Quinnipiac University Poll Iowa Electronic Market...

Stable Race, Bush Still Leads  Bush 49.00 | Kerry 47.59May 11, 2004Despite dire warnings from the pundits about Bush's electability after the USA Today Gallup Poll showed Bush's approval ratings relatively unchanged since February, the race remains tight, with Bush maintaining a slight lead over Kerry in this week's Composite Poll.  Bush leads the Composite Popular Vote 49.0% to 49.6%, and he leads the Electoral Vote Prediction 290-248.   When eliminating the Battleground states (which are in the "Lean" category where the current projected margin for any candidate is less than 6%), Bush has the advantage in states with 182 electoral...

PRE-AD BLITZ  Bush 49.46 | Kerry 48.36May 4, 2004As John Kerry readies his $25 million ad buy targeted at 19 states, the race remains close.  The only difference from 2000 is that New Mexico slips into Bush’s column.The polls still show continued weakness for President Bush.  He doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls.  That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate.  At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined, and now he gets his chance to define himself – a $25 million chance.  Without allocating the undecided vote, the composite...

IT’S APRIL, SO IT’S ACADEMIC  Bush 50.39 | Kerry 48.03April 27, 2004If I had to predict this election today, I’d see this race as I usually see Duke/UNC basketball games.  One of three things will happen.  Duke will win in a blow-out.  Duke will win a close one.  Or UNC will win a close one.  But no way will UNC win a blow-out.  I hope things are different next year, though. In this election, Bush is Duke and UNC is Kerry.  I see no way that Kerry can win a significant electoral victory in November.  If history is a guide, Kerry...

A SWING TOWARD THE PRESIDENT  Bush 49.83 | Kerry 47.33April 20, 2004 On April 13, the race was tied at 48.9. Since the data were collected for last week's Composite Poll, Condoleeza Rice has testified, the PDB was released, further complaints have arisen that Bush was "asleep at the switch" prior to 9/11, violence in Iraq has increased, Kerry returned from vacation and ratcheted up his attacks on Bush and released the Kerry Middle-Class Misery Index, liberal radio Air America appeared in several major cities and Bush held a news conference for which he was roundly criticized for a weak...

A 2000 Repeat?  Bush 48.9  Kerry 48.9April 13, 2004 The race for president is currently a tie, with each candidate pulling 48.9% of the vote in the fully allocated April 13 Federal Review Composite Poll. Bush has kept it close in a tough news week for him and the country, largely due to a 4 point lead in the Gallup poll, a substantial lead in the Iowa Electronic Market and the results of last week’s Composite Poll in which Bush held a slight lead. Other polls, however, including Newsweek and FoxNews show Kerry with a 4 and 1 point lead,...

TALKING DOWN THE ECONOMYJohn Kerry has been harping on the economy for some time, recently complaining about all the jobs lost during the Bush Administration. Never mind that the job loss figure that he quotes is from only one of the many reports compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- the Establishment Survey of National Non-Farm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted -- which shows a job loss from January 2001 to March 2004 of 1.8 million jobs. He doesn't consider the Establishment Survey that isn't seasonally adjusted (I can't figure why seasonal adjustments would matter over multiple years when seasonal variations...

I posted the following on my blog, but wanted to bring it to the attention of Freepers: NUT-LEFT-WATCHCheck out the Independent Media Center. It's a nice little (big?) network of America-hating socialists. Their DC "indymedia" site has a wonderful gallery of images, including this depiction of the Time Magazine Person of the Year cover, doctored up nicely with Swastika armbands on U.S. soldiers. The left remains as creative and original as ever. Here it is: posted by Winston 11:18 AM

DELIVERY AND DEATH, SENATE PASSES BAN ON PARTIAL-BIRTH ABORTION In a breathless report, Jim Abrams of the Associated Press announces the Senate's approval of a ban on "a practice that critics call partial birth abortion." Later, journalist Jim describes the practice, in his own words as "abortions, generally carried out in the second or third trimester, in which a fetus is partially delivered before being killed." Good thing you attributed the "partial birth" phrase to "critics". I guess "partially-delivered baby/fetus killing" would be more approriate. Jimbo says "the bill imposes the most far-reaching limits on abortion since the Supreme Court...

Hypocrisy on Parade Democrat after democrat has come out against President Bush and his Iraq policy. Most notably Tom Daschle. One Monday, Sen. Minority Leader Daschle says he’s "…saddened that this president failed so miserably at diplomacy that we’re now forced to go to war." Source That is quite the flip flop from his position in 1998. Then Sen. Daschle had the following to say. "Look, we have exhausted virtually our diplomatic effort to get the Iraqis to comply with their own agreements and with international law. Given that, what other option is there but to force them to do...

IS THIS WHAT THEY MEAN BY "SPECIAL INTERESTS"? [Emmy Chang]The Democratic National Committee's page, democrats.org, currently links to a porn site. (Go to their links and click on "Willie Velasquez Institute." Better yet, just take our word for it.) Editor's note: You really don't want to follow that Willie Velasquez link. Posted at 02:26 PM

The 'fair-use' forces in the copyright fight over digital rights have gotten some help from Capitol Hill. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), who represents Silicon Valley, has introduced a bill to make it easier to copy digital works. Lofgren said concerns about securing digital content from illegal copying have 'dramatically altered the balance of copyright law,' a reference to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. The bill, labeled the Digital Choice and Freedom Act of 2002, is advertised as a third voice -- that of the consumer -- in a debate between Hollywood and the technology companies, but it is a voice...

We all share the same earth and the same environment. We believe that everyone's voice should be heard in debating the policies and making the decisions that affect us all. The earth belongs to all of us. This first in the world, Online Global Poll is being conducted in conjunction with the United Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development being held in Johannesburg South Africa from August 25 to September 4, 2002. Your participation in this global poll adds voice to the many thousands worldwide expressing how they feel about the environment, and what they feel their leaders should do...

SYDNEY (Reuters) - A team of Australian scientists has proposed that the speed of light may not be a constant, a revolutionary idea that could unseat one of the most cherished laws of modern physics -- Einstein's theory of relativity. The team, led by theoretical physicist Paul Davies of Sydney's Macquarie University, say it is possible that the speed of light has slowed over billions of years. If so, physicists will have to rethink many of their basic ideas about the laws of the universe. "That means giving up the theory of relativity and E=mc squared and all that sort...