Posted on 04/23/2007 10:01:49 AM PDT by John Cena
April 23, 2007 For the fourth straight week, Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) has gained ground and he has finally caught New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. It’s now Obama 32% Clinton 32% and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards holding steady at 17%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is a distant fourth at 3%. Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden each attract 1% support. So does General Wesley Clark.
Obama has been steadily gaining ground during April. Last week, Clinton had a two-point lead. Two weeks ago, it was Clinton by five. The week before that, the former First Lady was up by seven. Our last release in March found Clinton enjoying a double digit lead. Clinton now holds a narrow edge among white voters while Obama leads by 16% among African-Americans.
A separate survey showed that Obama has the highest level of core support among all Presidential candidates—33% of voters say they’d definitely vote for him if he’s on the ballot in November 2008.
Rasmussen Reports releases national polling data on the Democratic nomination process every Monday and on the Republican race each Tuesday. The current survey of 579 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted April 16-19, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Obama’s numbers are a bit stronger—59% favorable and 34% unfavorable. The two candidates are essentially even among Democrats—Clinton is viewed favorably by 74% in her party while Obama is viewed favorably by 72%. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50%, Obama by 67%.
All Democratic candidates issued statements last week opposing the Supreme Court ruling on partial-birth abortion. That ruling was little noticed due to the tragedy at Virginia Tech. Just 40% of Americans knew how the Court ruled on the issue. Most who knew agreed with the ruling.
The Democrats were cautious in their statements about gun control following the Virginia Tech shootings. While there has been an increase in support for stricter gun control laws in the aftermath of that horrific event, less than half of Americans want stricter gun control laws.
Iraq remains the Democrats most potent issue—just 33% of voters now believe history will judge the U.S. mission in Iraq a success.
Yesterday was Earth Day and 45% of American voters see Global Warming as a Very Serious problem. Another 28% say it is Somewhat Serious. There is a significant divide over whether the human activity is the cause or if the Warming is simply part of a long-term planetary trend. (More Below)
Advertisment While Obama and Clinton are the frontrunners among Democrats, Edwards does best in general election match-ups. He leads all GOP hopefuls and is the only Democrat to lead the Republican frontrunner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. New results in the Obama-Giuliani match-up will be released on Wednesday. Clinton and Giuliani are essentially tied.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Democratic and Republican candidates. Also available are ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists.
Rasmussen Reports also monitors underlying party identification trends and has found a substantial shift away from the GOP over the past six months.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
To gain, you have to have something to offer. Either charisma or a good plan. Hillary offers none of that. All you here is "Vote for me because my husband is Bill Clinton." What a horrible thing to run on. By this time next year, Hillary's presidential aspirations might be dead and burried.
Enter Al Gore.
The really bad news is that if Obama makes enough of a showing, she'll HAVE to bring him on the ticket, and that's scary.
We shouldn’t underestimate Edwards. He’s got union support and that’s what put Kerry over the top once the media hacked up Dean.
I disagree. She won’t win the nomination. They hate her at DU.
I’ve noted for almost two years now she won’t enter the DNC primaries.
The only thing that happens when she gets publicity is the average voter remembers how much they disliked her in the first place, which is borne out by the latest polls. Her visibility rose, her ‘negative numbers’ rose as well, without a cooresponding ‘positive’ rise thats even measurable outside the margin of error.
This is very much like going to a highschool reunion, and trying to convince your old classmates the most hated teacher at the time ‘wasn’t so bad’. Its an exercise in futility.
Who’s going to forget the so called ‘smartest woman in the world’ look ridiculous saying 256 times under oath ‘I can’t recall’?
Who thinks that won’t end up in nationally run commercials if she does gain the nomination, if she enters the primaries?
We’ve all known people like Hillary Clinton, folks. We all know we try to avoid them if we can.
The best thing HilLIARy can do is sit down and shut up, and let the others battle it out for who will be 2nd place on her ticket.
But the buffoonery she has shown so far has reminded people of the first clintoon presidency and she has lost the ‘guarantee’ she had of a presumptive nomination.
She is proving to me more and more that she is less and less capable of running a campaign in the foreground. The stupid things she says and does, along with reminding us about cattle futures and vince foster and the numerous clinton crony indictments and convictions is leading her to drop like a lead ballon.
They are ALL better than the hildabeast
She’s got one advantage: Obama is just popular because of the “Colin Powell” effect: it makes people feel good to say, “Yes, I’d vote for the black guy.”
So when does Sharpton announce to help the Hildebeast?
The wild card is that a HilLIARy/Obama ticket is almost a guaranteed win in ‘08
Ut O
Obama’s invitation for a stroll in Fort Marcy Park is being prepared as we read this.
Call this the Imus Effect.
We’ll see. I can’t remember when someone led consistently in all the polls for the nomination then didn’t win it. It would have to go back to the 50s.
Like she cares. She’s going to get all the money she can get her paws on then rub it into Bills face! She knows she can’t win without personality. Now its just a matter of seeing how much money she can collect before Obama starts rolling!
We’ll see. I can’t remember when someone led consistently in all the polls for the nomination then didn’t win it. It would have to go back to the 50s.
I can see Gore or Edwards winning, but even that would be a stretch. Stupidly, they knocked Bayh and Warner off the ballot.
Norah O’Donnell of MSNBC had the most insightful and accurate take on HRC’s 1st quarter fundraising. She first stated that Hillary had inherited her husband’s list of 250,000 donors to tap, on obvious initial advantage over her opponents. Yet, despite that edge, only 50,000 out 250,000 donated to her campaign, a miserable 20% response. Norah stated that the Clinton campaign worked furiously trying to work this list, but with minimal success. Also, Norah made a big deal out of the that $11 million dollars had been transferred from Hillary’s senate campign account to her presidential account. So at the end of the day, Hillary only raised $15 million dollars as a presidential candidtate. Obama smoked her, and she and her staff know it. I’m looking forward to the Clinton slime machine’s coming attacks on Obama’s character, and the Obama campaign’s tough responses, this is going to be a dem primary war like nothing we’ve ever seen.
Howard Dean. 2004.
That’s not as long ago as the 50’s.
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