In 1980, Democrats wanted to run against Reagan, instead of Bush.
In 2000, Democrats wanted to run against George W, not McCain.
In 2016, Democrats wanted to run against Trump.
So their judgement isn’t perfect. In fact, they guy they think will be “easiest to beat” often has hidden strengths they don’t understand.
And the more the Dems become the Graduate Degree Party, the more removed they are from swing and infrequent voters, and the more they rely on polls and caricatures of these people becaue they don’t know any.
Great post!