Randy Nettles has done a lot of in depth study on the timing of many things.
While I don’t agree with his use of “I believe” either, you should at least try to read his articles with an open mind.
Neither you, nor he can prove the correct date for Our Lord’s birth - there’s a reason for that too.
To be fair, it wasn’t December 25th...
I read the commentary, with an open mind.
I still have a problem with it, regardless of the “I believe” phrase.”
Like you, I am a firm believer that Jesus was NOT born on December 25th.
In fact it is the wrong season for his birth.