Posted on 03/13/2007 7:54:13 PM PDT by PajamaTruthMafia
Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.
Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.
In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.
Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.
"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.
Solar Cycles
Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.
Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.
"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.
By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.
Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists
"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.
"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report."
Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."
Planets' Wobbles
The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.
"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. (Related: "Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says" [September 13, 2006].)
All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.
These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth.
Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now.
"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.
No Greenhouse
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.
He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.
But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.
Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.
Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.
"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."
Well, if his ideas aren't supported by the mainstream theory, then we better just send him to the Spanish Inquisition!
Funny video
Sarah Silverman's "A Very Convenient Truth"
http://youtube.com/watch?v=HMliLih1jsY
Weebuls wobble but they don't get warm either.
>>What is the Y axis in the second graph mean?
What is the y-axis in the first Graph? What is the data poltted as 1 abnd 2?<<
Sorry about that. I was going directly to the data from Dr. Abdussamatov's project. The Russian acadamy of science is fiercely independent - they refused to expel Andrei Sakharov despite enourmous Soviet pressure and threats.
So they will defend Abdussamatov's right to publish and dissent but his attempts to portray his project as the controlling factor in the earth's climate is not thought highly among Russian scientists.
Here's a page with the original references - the graphics are big so I had reduced the size of that graph.
http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html
The Pravda article from last year is also interesting
http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/75628-0/
His theory is just what the Russian government is looking for - unfortunately the other 500 senior scientists they could have asked would all give answers they don't like.
Your graph is just for one country - its really the global numbers that are key - now that said, there are some local regions of interest - notably the arctic where sea ice currently reflects 90% of incoming light compared to ocean water that absorbs almost 90%. As the sea ice continues to melt you may see exaggerated temperature increases in the arctic but for the most part the sea level rise correlates best with the global average.
>>Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."
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Well, if his ideas aren't supported by the mainstream theory, then we better just send him to the Spanish Inquisition!<<
Its not just a theory problem - the data doesn't match either.
Now, its not unusual for a scientist to have pet project but before the world can jump on board there needs to be either good theory or data.
If he is right and solar input peaked 10+ years ago we should be cooling down. Sometimes pet projects work out but he will have to show some confirmation and even then it will need to be compared to other theories that have strong confirmation.
The libs don't have a working knowledge of our planet. Water vapor is 95% of 'greenhouse' gas. Man's production of carbon dioxide is an insignificant addition.
They couldn't help themselves from putting this into an otherwise good article.
"suggests"
Even he is afraid to come right out and say that global warming hype is a hoax.
The power of the left to suppress dissent is overwhelming.
Remember, the left's goal is to create a society in which it rules. That will be a stalinist society which punishes dissent severely. The USA is already on the way to becoming just that.
read
As an earth scientist who saw that process in action, I can tell you that cartoon is right on target. It doesn't mean that there isn't climate change, and it doesn't mean that it's not from man, but there should be open and fair inquiry.
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