Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
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Hebert's Boxes
When I was a little tike of three, my mother had me hunting for lion’s paws and lemon pectins on Sanibel beaches. Glory of the Seas cones were a dime a dozen then. She found her own lion’s paw, but I got to be a tiny heroine by spotting a lemon pectin after a storm.
Anyway, back to the bridge. It’s a fairly short bridge. I caught many a fish off the side of it as a kid. My baby brother once caught a hammerhead shark, very cool, so we kids thought, and quite admired it until my Dad returned it to the sea. I don’t know about now, but back then a kid could catch good-sized redfish or sheepshead hand over fist within minutes on an incoming tide. Yummers. Both still my fave fish, although my adored Daddy preferred snook.
You make a very good point about where the money will go. I guess we’ll just have to see what damage Ian does and how it all shakes out?
My folks were evacuated from Ft. Myers to W. Palm Beach yesterday. 4 hour bus ride from an assisted living facility in Ft. Myers to another one.
I comes back slowly.
Great site...I am bookmarking.
How many hours will sarasota be in the wall? Websites aren’t loading for me not even YouTube
Re Orlando:
Ryan Hall reported a tweet “Large tornado minutes ago in Central Fla on non-tornado warned storm east of St Cloud, Fla.”
He then mentioned that Orlando (and up to Daytona Beach) should be on lookout for potential tornado activity tonight.
Thank goodness they got out, safely!! 🙏🏻
I live in Los Angeles now and all of my 81 years.
I have lived through every major quake since 1941!
You are so right about our Governor not caring for anything but himself!
Thank you for your apologies. It is bad there now and I’m praying for for families and good folks in Florida.
It’s a slow moving storm going NE. It looks like you’ll be in the outer edge for awhile. The guy just said Venice will be in the thick of it for a few hours yet. I guess that means you’ll be on the edge for awhile. I wish I had better info. Hopefully another FReeper can help.
Slow moving storm. . .
Expected to be inland Fl for over 24 hours, so ...
You still have a bit of a ride to go this evening.
Stay safe.
Good to know they are safe!
Since comprehensive data is still two...maybe three days out, this is an early, from the hip assessment.
This is a Katrina/Andrew level event. Slightly less, meteorologically, but ...some... steel reinforced concrete doesn’t care above 140 mph. Frame structures, no chance.
Huge area, mostly urban, check. Financial and social casualties extreme.
Inland, residual damage, greater than Andrew, equal to or perhaps greater than Katrina.
Try not to let the absence of information lull you to sleep. The lines are down. By Friday, you will know, and this storm will still be causing problems, elsewhere, that far out.
Get your donation machines cocked and locked. Prep yourself for those with agendas. They will swarm. Life and survival are higher priorities, but long term, those who WILL use this to personal profit need to be checked.
Stiff upper lips. Much misery to come. Pace youselves. Rest is a weapon.
Boxes to check here, back online tonight.
What this could amount to now is a much further south exit into the Atlantic, maybe the Cape.
Thanks. Pretty rugged. Mattress, no sheets pillows or blankets. Slept in their clothes. New facility not really opened yet. When you are in your 90s you gotta be tough.
Doesn’t appear to be any or very little storm surge in Venice, even right on the gulf as of now. Camera is showing lots of wind but the fishing pier appears to be unscathed
I spent many a happy hour on Cayo Costa State Park.
God bless them!!
One more, not good news.
This clip. posted here earlier, shows 3.5 feet of live storm surge, at, per my brother, Periwinkle Way and Casa Ybel intersection.
This clip does not document peak surge, as it cuts off, but does indicate that... all... of Sanibel may have experienced wave driven surge.
https://twitter.com/BirdingPeepWx/status/1575180191265353728
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281957
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...4 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND IN THE CAPE CORAL-PUNTA GORDA AREA...
The Punta Gorda airport recently reported a wind gust of 124 mph
(200 km/h), and a station at the Cape Coral Fire Department
recently reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
$$
Forecaster Beven
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