Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Mash image to enlarge
Hebert's Boxes
Hi Been following thread b Hurricane Thank you NN
I’m missing the graphics of locations n projections
Would someone provide links since they haven’t been posted
Been going to weather sites trying to find something
I’m so sorry for the loss many of you have sustained
I’m in northern central NC Rain n a wisp of rain just started We anticipate this how much no one seems to know It will be very VERY minor compared to prior several days assault
It seems this storm just had bad timing, to hit both coasts at their local high tide. But I’m sure some “scientist” will explain how that timing is due to global warming.
They were complaining about the lack of hurricanes a few weeks ago and that they were missing out on the rainfall from hurricanes, of course that was due to Climate Change too.
That’s the beauty of it, Climate Change is never wrong. It explains everything.
Exactly, they were too boxed in with "Global Warming" when we had cold Winters. I have to give the marxists credit, they are quite clever with their naming conventions.
025
WTNT44 KNHC 300847
TCDAT4
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
Ian continues to display hybrid tropical/extratropical
characteristics, and the satellite appearance is increasingly
taking on the pattern of an occluded low. Some deep convection has
still been developing just northwest of the center, however. Based
on SFMR measurements from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, the initial intensity is 75 kt, and as of right
now, all sustained hurricane-force winds are located within the
western semicircle.
The motion of Ian’s center has been somewhat discontinuous during
the past 6 to 12 hours, with multiple swirls apparently rotating
around a common center. The smooth motion is toward the
north-northeast, or 015/9 kt, although Ian should turn northward
very soon. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by tonight
as Ian moves around and merges with a shortwave trough over the
southeastern United States. Track models appear to have stabilized,
and all show Ian’s center crossing the coast of South Carolina this
afternoon, and then moving across eastern South Carolina and central
North Carolina tonight and on Saturday. Since there has been no
noticeable shift in the guidance on this cycle, the new NHC forecast
essentially lies right on top of the previous prediction.
Although very strong southwesterly shear is affecting Ian, the
hurricane is likely deriving its energy from a mixture of the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream and favorable interaction with the
southeastern U.S. shortwave trough. Those two influences should
continue today, and no significant changes to the intensity are
expected up until Ian’s anticipated landfall this afternoon, which
is generally in line with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. It should be
noted that hurricane-force winds are expected to develop within the
eastern semicircle soon, particularly as Ian begins to move faster
toward the north. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, and
Ian is also forecast to become fully extratropical by 36 hours, if
not a little sooner. The extratropical low is then forecast to
dissipate near the North Carolina/Virginia border by Saturday night.
One additional note: a frontal boundary that extends to the
northeast of Ian is expected to shift inland later today, and the
extensive area of tropical-storm-force winds shown in the
northeastern quadrant is forecast to contract considerably later
today and tonight.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the
coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas within the
Storm Surge Warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow
any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane
Warning area by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible
in North Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.
3. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through next
week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is
expected through today across portions of coastal and northeast
South Carolina. Locally considerable flooding is possible across
portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia through today
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/300847.shtml
So glad to hear from you! Continuing my prayers for those suffering from Ian.
I am up on the Albemarle Sound in North Carolina. We started getting the remnants of Ian last night and this morning we have 0.65 inches and really the rain is just getting underway. I have seen forecasts for 3.5 to 8 inches of rain. Thunderstorms and possible tornados later today.
Tropical Tidbits video forecast explained it best. North Carolina will get Warm Front rain until the storm works more inland then we will get the remnants of the hurricane.
Winds were 13 mph at 8 am and are picking up as the rain gets heavier. I would say we have had another 1/2 inch in the last 90 minutes.
We send prayers to all those in South Carolina and across Florida who have faced real hardship. Storms here will cause minor flooding and people know how to deal with that.
I’m right in its path.
Thank You she just slipped past the fury and avoided the surge issue. Doing fine no cell service though.
Have “they” sorted out that initial exaggerated (?) casualty report of several hundred FL deaths yet?
Hey! Internet has been out for 36 hours- just coming back on but still sketchy- hit and miss- very slow. We’re ok here in Orlando compared with our neighbors on southwest coast. It’s a mess of course, trees down, branches, flooding everywhere internet and power out for thousands. Dowtown Orlando had people on kayaks paddling through!
Going to catch up- hoping all our FRiends made it through ok.
My thanks to you for the many years you’ve devoted to these hurricane threads. I’m personally grateful to you. And for you.
Hi Dolly! What I do is look at the NHC forecast map, then open Google maps to zoom in on locations. Perhaps someone can find a single NC site which provides all of the info you seek.
I used to use Google Earth, which provided an overlay of the storm track onto the map. I do not use Google Earth today.
Gov. DeSantis team is pretty much writing it off to an overly distressed utterance by the Lee County Sheriff.
Hurricane Ian's projected path, as of 5 a.m. ET Friday.
Internet and cell phone service is in bad condition all over. I got internet back late yesterday. Cell phone service still tenuous.
Glad to hear you’re ok. Did the... ahh... critical supplies...survive?
:-)
Wow, you rode it out, but it’s like an earthquake that lasts 6 hours. Emergency radios, are those different than regular battery operated ones? Obviously, lots of batteries will keep you connected no matter how long it takes for electricity to be restored. Good to know. Solar panels blown off? Just damn, glad you’re ok.
Kayaking through downtown Orlando--ingenious! Gotta love Floridians.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.