Carolina Poll shows Dole with comfortable lead over Bowles in Senate campaign’s final days

CHAPEL HILL -- Republican Elizabeth Dole maintains a comfortable lead over Democrat Erskine Bowles in the final days of the campaign to replace Sen. Jesse Helms, according to a statewide survey conducted by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Journalism and Mass Communication.

In interviews with a representative sample of 560 registered voters in the week ending Oct. 31, the Carolina Poll found 47 percent supporting Dole, 40 percent for Bowles and 13 still undecided. If undecided voters choose between the two candidates in the same proportions as decided voters, the likely Dole margin is about eight percentage points, said Dr. Robert L. Stevenson, Kenan professor of journalism, who directed the poll.

Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh was not included in the poll because he did not participate in televised debates or campaign actively. Third-party candidates rarely attract more than 1 percent or 2 percent of the vote in North Carolina, Stevenson said.

Bowles is particularly strong among young voters and blacks, while Dole has strong support among men. Education has little influence on candidate preference, which is also evenly spread across different regions of the state.

Respondents were also asked to explain in their own words why they intended to vote for their candidate. Although it is difficult to respond to such a question without a chance to think about the answer, Stevenson said, answers do provide some insights into the ability of the candidates to get their messages across to the public.

Among the voters who could provide a reason for their choice, about a third mentioned something about the candidate’s record or policies, and about one in four chose on the basis of ideology or party identification. Despite a barrage of negative advertising, only about one in four claimed to be voting against a candidate.

The maximum error associated with a random sample of this size is about 5 percent. That means that if every telephone in the state were dialed, results would be equal to the sample results plus or minus 5 percent or less. Other differences resulting from refusals or failure of interviewers to reach specific numbers in the sample cannot be estimated. A comparison of selected demographic characteristics of the sample with a computer list of registered voters suggests that the sample is an accurate reflection of the state’s 4.4 million registered voters.

Students working under faculty supervision carry out telephone interviews for the Carolina Poll. It has been done as a public service by the School of Journalism and Mass Communication for more than 20 years. Details of the survey are available from the school.

they must be quoting the USASurvey poll....

North Carolina U.S. Senate	10/31/2002
Dole (R)	50%
Bowles (D)	46%
Undecided/Other	4%
Data Collected	10/28/02 - 10/30/02
Geography	State of North Carolina
Universe	611 Likely Voters
Margin of Error	4.0%
Client	WBTV-TV Charlotte
	WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham

It has been done as a public service by the School of Journalism and Mass Communication for more than 20 years. Details of the survey are available from the school.

Considering that Wellstone got his leftist political background from UNC-Chapel Hill and that the school has a long history of spawning such philosophy, perhaps this so-called "poll" is merely a push to spur Democrats to work harder to get out the vote for the Democrats.

Other polls are showing the race much closer, and the Republicans may regret the day they shunned truly conservative candidates in order to run Bob Dole's wife as a replacement for the "grand old man" of conservatism. Let's hope not, but they've taken a real chance which may cost conservatives big time.

Thanks for the heads up, Molly.

ALL ~~~ here is a post from another thread that I think everyone should read and ponder .......

THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INTENTIONS AND RESULTS!!!

I happen to agree with a large number of "Libertarian" tenets. Were I to vote Libertarian, however, the RESULT would be the nullification of a Republican vote which translates into a net GAIN of one vote for a Dim. After all we've seen of the modern Democrat party since, oh, about 1963 or so; and PARTICULARLY in these past two elections, giving a Dim a vote, through any means at all, is simply too revolting a thought.

Intentions vs. results, folks. Ultimately, we are judged on the latter, not the former. We may intend to vote our conscience, strike a blow for liberty and the Constitution, etc., but if the result, via a Dim victory, is actually a dilution of those worthy goals, then we have been made fools of.

Forget not, once in power the Dims will be the ones writing laws on taxes, spending, immigration, gun control, and trade. It will be THEY who select for us the judges, administrators, attorneys general, top military officers, regulators, and bureaucrats. 'Tis THEY who will write tort law and set education policy.

If the Republicans have been seemingly too eager to compromise with the Dims of late, those who, by their "principled" votes sent more Dims to Washington are partly to blame...compromise would NOT be as necessary with a greater Republican majority. You who complain about "weak-spined" Republicans are, unfortunately, partly to blame.

Think there's no difference? Really? Okay, I'll play your game. Did ANY Republicans accompany the Maggot Boys, Bonior and McDermott, to Baghdad to denounce their own country on the soil of an enemy? Is it Republicans who refuse to consider for confirmation any judges with Conservative, Constitutionalist leanings? Do Republicans wish to eliminate the tax cuts recently passed, or make them permanent? Is it the Republicans who conducted the shamelessly disgusting campaign rally upon a corpse this week? Was it the Republicans who, for 8 years (10 now!) steadfastly defended and protected one of the most apalling excuses for a President our country has ever been saddled with (and who would not have been elected without the interference of a third party, BTW). Do Republicans today hold out their worst failures from past years as "elder statesmen", worthy of Senate terms? Of all the (almost hourly) reports of electioneering shenanigans, have ANY touched a Republican? And lastly (and I could go on, oh yes, my brothers, I could) were any Republicans ever evident marching with those skinwasters at anti-war protests, past AND present?

Anyone who claims not to see a "dime's worth of difference" here doesn't have eyesight worth a penny.

Let's get the RATS out, once and for all. Once that high and worthy cause is done, we can turn our attention to the pursuit of liberty as enshrined in the Constitution. Such a pursuit, however, cannot take place whilst a Donkey blocks the road and refuses to budge.

An America where the two major parties are Libertarian and Republican would be wondrous indeed. First, however, a whole other party, one with a great deal of power still, must be crushed. Together, we all can do so. Apart, we can only wear its chains.

40 posted on 11/01/2002 9:28 PM EST by Long Cut

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