Posted on 03/04/2011 9:52:04 AM PST by FromLori
Pretty much precisely what noted earlier today: "A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour."
PAYROLL REVIEW – NICE JOB, SHAME ABOUT THE PAYCHEQUE, from Gluskin Sheff
The widespread reaction to the jobs report today is uniformly positive. I think a dose of reality is really needed here. It may as well come from this pen. The headline print of +192k was in line with published estimates but following the slate of ISMs and the ADP report, the “whispered” number was closer to +250k. Of course, there were the upward revisions to the back-data that showed net gains of +58k so one could easily respond that adjusted for these, the topline did indeed meet these “whispered” estimates. The employment diffusion index jumped to a 13-year high of 68.2% from 60.1% in January, but beware of peaks and troughs in this index (i.e. it would have been a mistake to extrapolate the 17% low in this job dispersion measure at the March 2009 market trough).
Here is what I think is important: because of the winter storms, we really have to average out the past two months. So the January-February average for payrolls is +128k. Allowing for a similar reading in March that we received in February would generate an average increase for the first quarter of around 150k. That is little changed from what employment gains averaged on a monthly basis in the fourth quarter. So while we are seeing positive job growth, it is not accelerating even though we are coming off the most intense impact of the fiscal and monetary easing that was unveiled late last year. In other words, we are disappointed with what is still a lacklustre trend in net job creation, particularly in view of the peak stimulus we are currently experiencing.
What if Q1 is the peak for job growth? If you remember, we ended up with sub-3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which is about half of what we should be seeing at this stage of the cycle. And if we are generating jobs at a similar rate in the current quarter, barring a re-acceleration in productivity, growth again will be below 3% at a time when the consensus is closer to 3.5%. But more to the point — what if this represents the peak for the year? Because if there is one thing we do know, it is that this quarter contains all the incremental policy easing impact on the macro data.
What was particularly discouraging was the fact that both the wage number and the workweek were flat. Nominal wages, in fact, have been stagnant in three of the past four months. Weekly average earnings have also been flat or negative in three of the past four months. How on earth can these statistics possibly be viewed as bullish for the economy? The year-over-year-trend in average weekly earnings in the past three months has softened from 2.6% to 2.5% to 2.3% today. At the same time, it is probably reasonable to assume that surging food and fuel costs will bring headline inflation to, and possibly through, 3% in coming months. In other words, the growing risk of falling personal income in real terms, even with the positive growth in payrolls, is a glaring yellow light as far as the consumer spending outlook is concerned.
Aggregate hours worked only managed to tick up 0.2% in February after a flat January. That is total labour input — bodies and hours. So assuming a trend-like productivity performance, we are talking yet again about sub-3% GDP growth, which by itself is okay but considering the peak impact of all the fiscal and monetary steroids being administered this quarter, it is actually disappointing.
Yes, the unemployment rate dipped again to a 22-month low of 8.9% from 9.0% in January and the nearby high of 9.8% in November. This reflected a 250k risein Household employment — the third increase in a row — and a flat participation rate. A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour.
All that matters in these employment reports is what the jobs environment means for income, because workers generally spend in the real economy. With credit harder to come by, and with fiscal policy soon to become more focussed on austerity, it is the income that the labour delivers that will prove to be the critical determinant of the economic outlook. So while the “spin” may be over near-200k headline payroll gains, another dip in the headline unemployment rate, the organic income backdrop can really only be described as tentative, at best, especially in real terms as gasoline prices make their way to $4 a gallon by the time Memorial Day rolls around.
I think employment goes up and down because seasonal opportunities are part of the total employment which also includes lost/gain opportunities because of other factors such as business cycles and political machinations. The best in honest reporting I think is to just make sure the reports specify the time period of data and not deceive by implying the data apply for the date of the report.
I think employment goes up and down because seasonal opportunities are part of the total employment which also includes lost/gain opportunities because of other factors such as business cycles and political machinations. The best in honest reporting I think is to just make sure the reports specify the time period of data and not deceive by implying the data apply for the date of the report.
I don't hold with the conspiratorial world view (Nathan Rothschild didn't outline all this with the Illuminati right after the battle of Waterloo).
But I do think the holders of dodgy mortgage backed securities were stared in the face by their own potential insolvency and decided, as the maxim now goes, not to let a crisis go to waste.
Occam's razor - it's not an evil conspiracy, it's just simple, human, looking out for number one.
Yes, but it tends to grow a great deal when JimRob is away/out of commission.
I completely agree.
Subsidies are not capitalism
I completely agree.
Favored status tax rates and other laws (for the chosen few) are not capitalism.
I completely agree.
The question was not about principles: we all seem to agree with those.
The question was about violations of those principles: when posters see those violations, they explain what those violations are. That is all I asked. Actually, I keep begging people to report all known frauds to the FBI --- I want to see the perps in jail.
But no specifics ever follow. In fact, most post reveal no understanding of the issue at hand. And why should they? Nobody in his right mind thinks (s)he can learn physics or mathematics by browsing the Web. But great many folks are convinced that they do that in finance and economics.
Accusations without support amounts to defamation of innocent people. And, being a conservative American, you would stand up against that, would you not?
Angered at a wrong, nonesistent enemy by the socialist propaganda, these conservatives serve as "useful idiots" to the Left: the left wants to destroy capitalism starting with its most pronounced symbols -- Wall Street (Goldman, etc.) and business leaders (CEOs).
Enjoy your corporatism.
Do you see now how silly this remark is? I am asking people not to assist the Left in destroying capitalism by following their false propaganda, and you are accusing me of advocating corporatism?
And you follow the same pattern: there is absolutely nothing I said on this thread or ever in my life that would suggest I advocate or condone corporatism. You just defamed me without a shred of evidence.
So much for the traditional conservative principles...
Have a good night, Lorianne.
“It Marx’s idea that what a person thinks depends on his income and class membership.”
Here is another one of Marx’s ideas.
Now just what do you suppose he means by this statement???
“the centralization of wealth in the hands of the state by means of a national bank with an exclusive monopoly” - Karl Marx, Communist Manifesto
“...bashing the “financiers” has been the standard strategy, started also by Marx,...”
So, let me get this straight. If anyone bashes the “banks”, they are a Marxist. Un, no, but I will let your generalization stand, because it lacks logic and grace.
“This always made sense to those that wanted to undermine capitalism because finance is difficult to understand ...”
Oh, so us idiots out here, who are becoming aware of the stench of corruption, well, we are just TOO stupid to understand your arrogant pompous rhetoric.
“But banks never asked for the bailout and tried to refuse it. That’s a secret here on FR. “
No it is not a secret, I have known this for a long time. What you fail to mention is that this was done TO PROTECT THE TBTF BANKS from being discovered because they DID need those funds.
“Go ahead, count the number of threads raging about car-makers,..”
Boy, are you blind there where tons of those threads. I know I post on a few of them. People were just as mad, just as startled about the bond holders just rolling over for the Ozombie admin. Clueless liar.
“But facts don’t matter any more. They don’t matter because there has been too much propaganda and even conservatives swallowed it.”
But being a liar is OK. got it.
“I would gladly discuss facts, but I am not allowed to do that. One is not even allowed to question posts that are completely empty of facts but full of accusations. “
Boy, what a whiner you are. I told you yesterday, I will tell you again, *** you can post your own threads. *****
Cut your whining, it is sickening.
“This is not a discussion, this is hysteria. The same hysteria, against the same “villains,” that existed in 1930s here as well as Germany and Italy.”
So, anyone who disagrees with you is a Nazi, how leftist of you. You really throw the mud, lies, falsehoods, no facts, just whining BS. Uuuuggghhhhhh, barf.
“... if you are really a conservative and care about core American principles, you should stand up against the defamation of innocent people that are routinely accused without a shred of evidence.”
Oh, how touching. Oh, you are just so mild and you just care so much, but the meanies, well, they are too mean. So I don’t have to answer for being a liar because well, I really am, I just can’t admit it.
I am referring to the fact that REAL ue is much higher than the 9% that the msm continually feeds to the public. These figures are manipulated by the DOL. I think the shock to Americans if the truth were told would be viseral and career ending for pols.
Dis the past admins do this, ofcourse ,but not to the extent that this criminal Admin has practiced.
Why do you think I want a LAW. Cuts both ways.
I don’t know what world you live in but WE are facing inflation in the most basic of Maslows Ladder. Food, Shelter, energy.
These are basic survival needs. Is this LIE to further frustrate americans? Don’t believe your lying eyes, only what you are fed from the Gov.
I hope you realize 8.9% is bogus and meant to fool only the stupidest in the sector we call “the public”
I have often found these classifications to be nothing more than gerymandering facts.
Please do not stop posting. I know nothing about this stuff, but I have enjoyed your posts and I am glad that you
actually make the effort to post articles.
That’s why a non-partisan audit of the TARP program is urgently needed. There was very little accountability built-in to the legislation (and I believe for a reason).
You’re right, I shouldn’t assume, I should just ask.
Do you deny that we have a corporatist government and have had for several decades?
If you know that, give us evidence.
Without support, such evidence is nothing but a defamation.
See my previous post if you care. Such manipulation could not be done simply because the statistics are gathered by a very large group of people (not political appointees), which includes also conservatives. It would require a conspiracy of literally hundreds of people. Unless surrounded by barbwire, at least some would not participate. Like all conspiracy theories it makes absolutely no sense.
It you just walked into the offices of those people, you would simply laugh at the suggestion of manipulation.
“...when posters see those violations, they explain what those violations are. “
But, see, this is how Free Republic works. People who are not experts, find interesting news items and post them. Some will agree and others won’t. There will be a wide range of ability to discuss the issues. If this board doesn’t have the level of academic discussions for you, YOU are on the wrong board.
“But great many folks are convinced that they do that in finance and economics.”
There you go again, we are just too stupid for you, aren’t we? Have to keep your smug appearances up don’t you, poor little baby. You could always go to ZeroHedge, or are you MathMan? JohnnyBravo maybe?
“Accusations without support amounts to defamation of innocent people.”
Oh, they are all sooo innocent. Oh, we are just soooo mean. For someone who calls others COMMIES WITHOUT CAUSE, you are a LIAR.
“Angered at a wrong, nonexistent enemy by the socialist propaganda, these conservatives serve as “useful idiots” to the Left: the left wants to destroy capitalism ...”
YOU have not EVER answered the question:
HOW IS DEBT SLAVERY CAPITALISM?????????????????????????
“And you follow the same pattern:...”
AND SO DO YOU, FAKE LIAR, FALSE ACCUSER
I am reminded by a quote of Henry Kissinger:
“The Left accuses the right of what they themselves, do.”
You have got that right. And the money for FOREIGN banks is a true slap in the face. Our banks who control our government are just as bad and thieving as the Icelandic banks. They didn’t give a damn their whole nation became insolvent.
You know, in the last depression FDR CHANGED how the statics for unemployment were determined. It USED to be acknowledged that government workers were a DRAIN on society, dependent on TAXES to be paid. So, their numbers weren’t part of the labor pool.
But, as time went on, that changed. They were added in to make the numbers look better.
I wonder what the unemployment numbers would look today if ALL tax sucking economy wrecking do-gooders weren’t counted anymore.
OK
Above is post #3.
Prove to me TopQuark, where fromLori spewed ANY commie proganda, blamed GS, the Fed and the CEO bonuses IN THE POSTS BEFORE YOURS!!!!!!
LIAR
You can't TopQuark.
TopQuark is a LIAR
And you whine about defamation of innocent people, LIAR.
Look at the charts previously posted. Are you blind.
Total ue in the teens.
Frankly Government employees do what they are told. Period.
Thinking outside the box is not a job requirement.
If you know so much about what gopes on in those offices. Please tell me why some people are UE’d and others are just not counted in the RELEASED figures?
Even Euro’s are getting fed up with the ignorance of this Admin and by extention the Fed Employees that care the Party line.
I guess you've never heard of Wifi. Jim has a laptop at the hospital and logs in periodically to check up on things as well as giving us progress reports on his leg (it's looking better, BTW, and prayers and encouragements for Jim from FReepers and lurkers are deeply appreciated).
All moderator on FR activity is logged, including decisions to not delete comments after Abuse is mashed about them. Jim can log in and review that activity after the fact and overrule the moderators if he so desires. Nothing is done behind his back.
In the opinion of all of the moderators that are around today, who encompass a wide range of views, the comments directed at Lori are pithy but do not rise to the level of personal attacks that we would typically pull. If we pulled all comments that rose to the pithy level, a lot of FR threads would look like Swiss Cheese.
And since Lori posts from a wide variety of sites, including some written from a liberal point of view, she needs to be willing to defend those posts. She is always free to start a blog where she can control the content of what is commented upon in response to what she posts. But FR is a forum with a long history of often-heated debate. One person's personal attack is another person's pointed debate. That is what the moderators believe is the case here.
And you are free to ping Jim or mash abuse that you disagree with the moderators. We can't delete abuse reports that come in, it will be visible to Jim and all moderators.
Frankly, I have no idea wtf your point is, nor do I care. The statistical data from the Labor Dept’s BLS speaks for itself. Period.
Your last post indicates a wild imagination at work.
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