Third party movements have not done well in this country. They usually end up helping the other side as will be likely be the case this year, at least at the National/Presidential level.
Where the Tea Party has succeeded is at the local level and in the primaries. The next Congress will have a stronger Tea Party contingent and many state legislatures will be changed for the good. The Republican Party is being shaped by this movement, but from the bottom up and that's the best way to do it. Of course the great danger is that Conservative movement spends years in the wilderness following an Obama victory.
Not voting for Romney is usually not about a third party movement.
It’s about not following lock step behind the GOP no matter what it does.
As I have said, the GOP-e types know that many will vote for whoever they put up, as in lesser of two evils
Therefore, they keep marginalizing Conservatives and run left leaning RINO’s.
The blame will be on the GOP when Romney loses, not on those that refuse to help them continue their mission of promoting liberal candidates by voting for them on a ABO reasoning ideal.
They are pretty good at getting republicans to vote for inferior candidates as they sit back and laugh at how they have snookered their base.
The Tea Party will survive, Conservatives will continue to be relevant at the grass roots level and in political office as we vote more and more of them in on the local level.