[HostileTerritory]

Bill Clinton won New Jersey by only 80,000 votes in 1992. Gore’s 500,000 vote margin went down to 250,000 for Kerry, one of the biggest percentage swings in the country, and we can thank the 9/11 effect.

New Jersey’s median voter is affluent and concerned about security. She’ll vote for a Republican who doesn’t remind her too much of Newt Gingrich. These voters have no natural affinity for the Democrats but feel driven there because they can’t identify with some types of southern conservatism. Give them a Republican they can vote for, the one who made New York City safe for them and stood up to the terrorists, and they’ll bring their 15 electoral votes to our side.

I’m not saying I support Rudy. I haven’t decided how I’m voting in the primary yet and will support whoever the eventual candidate is. But this is a sound strategic argument, IMO.

[oceanview]

NJ is a lock for Rudy - the factors you mention, and the italian vote too.

[Alberta's Child]

By 2008 (if not already), New Jersey's median voter will be a recent immigrant from a Third World country or a recent immigrant from New York City (though that's a bit redundant).

Losing New Jersey should be considered a badge of honor for a principled conservative, and anyone who can win this state has no business in the White House, as far as I'm concerned.

[The Shrew]

Bill Clinton won New Jersey by only 80,000 votes in 1992. Gore’s 500,000 vote margin went down to 250,000 for Kerry, one of the biggest percentage swings in the country, and we can thank the 9/11 effect.

What about the Swing from 80,000 - 500,000? If 9/11 didn't draw us back into the 80,000 vote range - still a loss for the GOP - Why would it be different now after 4 years of Media pounding on the 'disasterous GOP run Iraq war'?

I don't buy it. I still believe that NJ will be Dem voting state until the issue of Voter Fraud is addressed. As it stands now the GOP would have to win by 500,000 votes to WIN at all.

Regards,

TS