What are Toomey’s chances of winning if Dems put up someone instead
of Specter? We seem to be losing every where else.
Au contraire! IIRC, the record for the GOP in post-Nov. 4 elections (specials, etc.) is 3-2. The two that we lost were:
1) Rosanna Pulido (FR's own ChicagoLady) in IL-5 who was running in an extremely Democrat-heavy district (Rahm Emanuel's old district) and who had virtually no ILGOP support whatsoever - she still managed to pull in 25% of the vote, which is slightly higher than what the GOP pulled in the contests against Emanual in 2008, 2006, and 2004. Rosanna is to be commended for doing quite well, all things considered! All the same, there was about zero chance of her actually winning in such a Blue district :(
2) Jim Tedisco in NY-20, who despite running a terrible campaign, managed to come within a hairsbreadth of taking back a seat from the Dems which, since the 2003 redistrict, had been a "safe" Democrat seat (Dems win by 20% or more).
Even in these losses, I'd say we did better than we had any right to expect - which I find encouraging, not discouraging.