Your post is chock full, as always, of statistics, trends and really good strategy. A pleasure to read.
I cannot quarrel with much of it. I would only make two observations. One has to do with New Hampshire. I am sure Palin will play the expectations game and accede to the conventional wisdom that Romney is the strong favorite in NH. But now to reality. As you point out in your post, New Hampshire is a retail state and Mitt does not do well with retail politics. As you say, he lost New Hampshire to McCain, an inferior retail politician in 2008 by 5.5%. Matched against Palin, can he expect to do better? I think not. I think she will win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Mitt has a chance to win Nevada becasue of the heavy Mormon vote, but the pressure will be heavy upon him to drop out. I do not expect the nomination fight to be protracted. It will be shorter than it was in 2008, even though the calendar will prolong it. I do not think Mitt can sustain losses in the first three primaries and come back. Reagan did it in 1976 with the help of Helms and his committed organization in NC, but Mit draws no such loyalty.
Second— The Debate with Obama. The MSM will call Obama the winner of the debate no matter how it goes. They did the same for Carter in 1980. It did not work. Carter had a record and Reagan exposed it. More to the point, Reagan showed himself to be a reasonable man who could be President, although there were many more doubts about him them than there are about Palin now. In fact, Carter was leading Reagan by about 3-5 points just before the debate. The Country then became completely comfortable with the idea of Reagan as President and they proceeded to do what had been their inclination for nearly a year. They fired Carter.
I think the former mayor of San Francisco and Speaker of the California Assembly, Willie Brown—a shrewd observer of politics—has commented on Palin’s political genius. Her resignation was a master stroke that freed her to pivot right into the maelstrom here in the lower 48. The liberals had planned to pin her down with ethics complaints, effectively neutralizing her for the Obama “push for socialism” and for the 2010 midterms. She refused to play the game. And her audacity has paid rich dividends already.
She has shown that she is willing to take chances, long chances to win. (She resigned from a lucrative job as Chairman of the Oil and Gas Commission to take down the corrupt Murkoski, a long shot at the time) And she is supremely self confident. She has been through a national campaign, something Reagan had never done until 1980. Reagan always felt the need to rely upon the experts on the national political scene. His adviser’s referred to it as their “Sacramento inferiority complex”. Palin labors under no such disability. she well knows these “consultants” are a bunch of empty suits.
Palin also has an intuitive ear for political combat, and this will be the key to the debate. Just as she coined the term “death panel”, she will deliver a bon mot in the debate that will be replayed and will become the coup de grace for Obama. I would not want to be in Obama’s shoes defending his Marxism against a conservative populist like Palin, particularly one with her political skills.
From you I take it as the highest compliment.
I was following along with AKReport’s format and she did not include Nevada or any other state in her analysis.
As you say, he lost New Hampshire to McCain, an inferior retail politician in 2008 by 5.5%.
If you are saying McCain was an inferior retail politician I’d disagree. McCain spent much of the year prior to the primary in NH roaming the state meeting one on one with the locals. He held over 100 town hall meetings during that year and pretty much spent his spare time there.
NH requires that of their candidates and the ones that spend the effort will come out best. I’m not sure just yet who will spend that kind of time in NH come 2011. It’s harder on Palin just because of her AK home base which I”m sure she would alter if she became a candidate.
JMO and yours may differ. Take care.
Unfortunately she is slow on her feet in interviews. (She did well in the debate though, I thought.)