Posted on 08/31/2010 11:00:40 AM PDT by Pete
Yes I would change it a bit to show the intention of 3 days versus the imagined 1 ft starting size.
Other than that good article!
Point is simply that Beck's rally was never just about this November because it should be clear that the problem already fits your geometric model.
If Beck and others (us) can't aim beyond the immediate perception it's likiely to be over with.
A tough read to be sure. I was at 8/28 and saw what I believe was a list of reasons and accomplishments. The most glaring being that we’re in for some very trying times, the likes of which no ones’s ever seen. At this point, anything is possible. The more unthinkable, the more probable. It’s gotten to the point where everyday there’s a new assault on our freedoms and liberties. NEVER has this regime come out with a positive and NEVER have they been able to deliver on their pansy ass message of “hope”. “Change” is a different story.
“Connect with your family and God”, respect and appreciate the military past and present. That was it. The rest will hopefully take care of itself this November with an effort from conservatives to get out and vote, volunteer, go door to door, call and don’t give up.
Free Republic is like the neutron reflector at the core of an atomic weapon.
The rapidly collapsing plutonium sphere is mounting dismay by the citizens.
Obama is most definitely the trigger.
Beck? He’s Tritium.
We launch on Nov 2.
How about;
If you build a Mosque on the killing fields in lower Manhattan, on day 1 you will have 300 Moose Limbs ... how long will it be before it is a no-go zone? On day 2, etc.
You could then work in how many fire engines will be required to put out the constant arson flames, the amount of cement work needed in front to bulwark it ... well, you get my drift ... spice it up a bit?
Good thoughts, though. Seriously.
I agree with you. Our hope needs to be in the one who died for us and saves us from the wrath we deserve. Our view should be eternal. We have a great Savior and we have every reason to have hope regardless of our circumstances. Praise God for that!
Read or watch the speech by Sarah Palin seen here:
http://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin#!/notes/sarah-palin/restoring-honor/423597888434
This is what it is all about!
I understood your point, but it did take a bit of reading. Explaining concepts like this is tricky; I’ve found graphics to be pretty useful and more understandable to most. I’d suggest a side-by-side comparison of the two ponds visually; doing it as an animation would be a stronger illustration.
I see the same concepts playing out, brother geek (said “lovingly”) -—
But then, I did take an unrequired engineering calculus class in college as an elective for FUN, so what do I know!!!
I started moving forward with an eye on 2012 myself in June, moving forward in baby steps at first, but taking a few larger steps now. My eye is on a distant goal, but I intend to be one cog in the wheel to get there.
“We can solve this fundamental problem. Glenn is right in the solution he proposes and there is enough time left to change. So, now you know why I say that the “Restoring Honor” rally really isn’t about the November 2 elections and, if I have achieved my goal, you have hope.”
BINGO!!
It made perfect sense to me. I hope that your hypothesis is correct and folks like Glenn Beck are “forward thinking” enough to start changes early. This is not a can we can keep kicking down the road.
Thanks, everybody, for the feedback. It was very helpful.
piytar, I am going to take your advice and put the conclusion up front rather than build way too much theory and work to the end.
hadcat, I am going to get rid of the scenario I and just limit myself to one paragraph on the lily pad analogy. Less math and more clarity.
FrankR, your comments were also helpful (although don’t give up on yourself at 64. My father, who first developed these ideas in the early 90’s as an actuary, wrote the book on the 29thday website at the age of 69.
I will do a rewrite and post below as a comment (rather than a new thread - I may be a glutton for punishment but I am not a fool;)
Other folks talking about or using these principles (and better than me) are Chris Martenson on economics, Ray Kurzweil on technology, Jack Uldrich on business and Wayne Hodgkins on education. And, of course, Glenn Beck on history and government.
One more thing: I realize I didn’t mention this in the article. I was at the 8/28 rally as well. I got there at 4:45am and there were already 20,000 or so people gathered. It was amazing to see the sun come up over that growing crowd. I had three of my six children with me and I am very glad they were there to witness it. What a day!
Thanks, jhawk92, for the encouraging words. You are so right that we cannot continue kicking this can down the road. The longer we wait, the few choices we have and the more pain the solution will cause because there WILL be a solution. It is just a matter of whether we have a say or not in what it is.
Great stuff. Look at the left for an example of this (haven’t done the calculations but the trend is similiar).
Eugene Debs wiped out in 1920. 12 years of the GOP. Then FDR. Hope! But it’s squashed by anti-communist Democrats. Henry Wallace in 1948 goes down in flames. New Left (the kids of FDR’s Popular Front commies) rises in the 60s. They are wiped out in 1972 on the Presidential level but made, held and expanded power in the House for the next 20 years. Then comes Clinton. Hooray! But he’s DLC and moves to the center after 2 years. The defeat of Gore is the Great Tragedy. 2002 and 2004 are demoralizing. But those New Lefties in the House have aged, will become chairman and can determine the direction of the country if Democrats take the House. They get that in 2006! Hooray! Then Obama in 2008! The Long March is over. They have reached the promised land when just 6 years ago they thought they had little chance.
Pete. Nice try. Keep trying.
I think you are correct about that it is the 29th day for Congress, and indeed for the whole Establishment. But ... it may also be only the 28th. That is, they can still crush the change. Why is that?
Your example of a lily pad and pond is very peaceful. A peaceful lily pad and a calm still pond. In reality it is more complicated dynamics — even though your simple model clearly demonstrates THE major dynamic of it: exponential growth!
We have a pond, yes, but only usually is it calm. On some days a storm moves in and destroys some lily pads. On some rare days a great storm rolls in and kills many or all lily pads.
We also have lily-pad eating frogs. And some frog-eating snakes. The frogs get protection from the snakes by sitting in the middle of lily pads. The frogs need to birth and grow from tadpoles to adults in open water.
Since this is a actual ecosystem the system has bands of equilibrium, even though the growth of pads is exponential. And yet, there is also a fragility. If a disease affects the snakes, there may be too many frogs, and then the lily pads eaten back to the point a smaller storm can wipe all lily pads out. And once the lily pads are gone, the frogs starve, and with no frogs the remaining snakes starve. All die.
Or another — the snakes learn to jump up on lily pads. Then they eat too many frogs, the lily pads take over, and the frogs and snakes die.
You see how hard it is to explain to FREEPERS your model. Yet FREEPERS are smarter than most. It shows how math thinking today among people is abysmal.
We are closer to the 29th day in your longer term social dynamics! Not the 15th day — more like the 25th, or 26th.
But why is that?
I’m going to switch my enhanced version of your lily pond over to a Biblical modal.
The Lily Pad is the world, the earth, all living things. The grasses, the animals, the plants, the cockroaches! All things, but man. Man is like the frog. We are born in the world, but we learn to dominate it, and eat from it. We make sure the lily pads stay healthy, and fight off the snakes.
The snakes — that’s Genesis too. The Snake in the Garden of Eden! The forces of conflict and opposition, or tempting and the short term delights of vice. Every frog likes to swim free like a snake! The snakes are free of immediate responsibility. The frogs take care of the world for them.
Back to the 29th day. Something has stunned the frogs. Sickness? A overly crazy delight in being in the company of snakes? Death by that, but short term it feels so free!
The lily pads keep growing. There’s less and less frogs.
Today even the snakes are slightly, just so slightly beginning to worry — where have the frogs gone?
Back-calculating, he finds the original lily pad to have been 1/10 of a square inch. The math is perfectly correct.
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