Hi! You asked why I thought we were close to victory. In 2006, total forces (Afghan and Allied) opposing the Taliban was around 100,000. And the Taliban were winning. Now that number is around 500,000, and the Taliban are no longer gaining ground but in fact losing. In 2006 they held all the approaches to Kandahar and the Helmand and Arghandab River Valleys. Now they hold none of those places.
Last week the Taliban launched a major attack on Kandarhar and got their rears handed to them by the Afghan security forces. That never would have happened in 2006.
Analysis by numbers. Straight of the Pentagon’s 1960’s playbook. By that tactic, the US won Vietnam, too.
But the problems are the same as in Vietnam -
Local people who don’t really give a damn which way the fighting goes, and don’t want to help. A double-dealing government that wants the foreigners to do all the hard work, and has an incentive for the war to drag on (= more foreign aid).
Not winning the “hearts and minds of the populace” is not a recipe for success.