There are 4 things that Iraq requires to field a credible defense, when they have these, then they will be ready:
1. Air Defense - they have nothing now. 5 Fighter Squadrons minimum. About 96 F16s according to IMoD.
2. Field Artillery - They only have 3 divisions equipped with howitzers ATT. Less than 200 howitzers. They need about 2,000.
3. ATGW. The only ATGWs they have now are 20 BTR4s equipped with Barrier. Every Battalion requires a legit anti-tank capability - otherwise they are just grease for tank treads. IA/FP/DBE Bns total over 300 - which means over 3,000 launchers including a reserve.
4. Support. A functional logistics/maintenance system including ammo supplies. Right now they have Level 2 and 4 logistics [Div and Army] - they are still forming Level 1 and 3 [Bde and Corps] and proper stocks of ammo/spares/etc.
The ISF is up to internal security - not full-scale warfare. They just don’t have the tools.
The related articles listed at the bottom of this update spell out the details.
The mujaheddin had none of those things and they still managed to defeat the USSR. There are numerous examples of low tech guerrilla forces overcoming superior forces. Personally, I don’t care what happens in Iraq but I doubt Iran will be invading them. I’m not sure it would be a bad thing for us if they did.