Here's my take...
We need to win all the 2008 McCain states (not too difficult) plus flip Indiana (easy - I live there - it’s a lock), Ohio and Florida (tossup) Pennsylvania (could be tough) and scrounge up another 9 electoral votes someplace. Pennsylvania could be replaced by NC and VA.
The money may not be that significant because it can be concentrated in the battleground states.
I think you’ve done your homework. I just don’t know what to believe at this point. Part of me says that financial Armageddon cannot be avoided and we may as well let the ship sink with leftists in charge so that they can blame no one and we can hammer them over the head with their failure until they can no longer open their eyes. I know they are ruining the Constitution, but we can undo all of their destruction of the economy and the USC only by completely defeating them with true conservatives with lockdown majorities in both houses. To me, that is the only way we can fix this mess. Squeaking a Republican through but letting the wounded tiger of the establishment parties of both sides to hide in the tall grass sounds like a bad plan. They will allow the Republican enough political wins that when TSHTF, they can blame it on Republicans, conservatives, capitalism, the free-market, the internal-combustion engine, and all the Goebbels-type propagandist lies they have been so successful with.