I think it’s really a hobby. Of course they won’t admit it’s a hobby, but like you say there really isn’t much historical precedent Unless you live in hurricane country, those people get to bug out all the time (why I’d never live there). All the major doomsday options I believe in playing the odds, if it’s that bad odds are I’ll be dead anyway. But for most folks it’s kind of like playing the lottery only in reverse, people buy lottery tickets then dream about how awesome life will be if they win, which they won’t, but the dreams are there; preppers do their prepping and think about how awesome it will be to be the survivors while all others fall in the chaos if the SHTF, which it won’t, but they’ve got their dreams. Looking at some of these ideas it can be an expensive hobby, but so’s by DVD/CD/book collection. They have fun with theirs, I have fun with mine.
Its not a hobby, its an insurance policy.
I’ve lived in Hurricane country and have been threatened by or hit by roughly 15 hurricanes. I’ve never bugged out nor do I plan to for anything less than a cat 5. In that case the storm surge would cover the first floor of my house so i wouldn’t have much choice.