Stalin also counted on the armies of Britain, France and Germany bleeding each other dry, which would have allowed a built up Red Army by around 1943 to swoop in and take over Europe.
One thing Stalin didn’t count on, France falling in six weeks....he had to know by then it was only a matter of time before Hitler turned his sights on him....but Stalin wasn’t ready in 1941.
As paranoid as Stalin he kept ignoring warnings he was being given by Churchill and other Western leaders that Hitler was going to attack him. He thought it was a capitalist ruse to get him to start a war with Germany.Even as Germany was massing troops on the eastern border of Poland and Stalin knew of reconnaissance over-flights by the Luftwaffe he still didn't believe war was coming. Up until almost the last hour before the Germans attacked the last Russian train full of materials and goods as per their trade agreements with the Germans left Russia for Germany. Stalin refused to see what was coming.