#3 A substantial decline for 10 year bond yields. When investors get scared, there tends to be a “flight to safety” as investors move their money to safer investments. We saw this happen in 2008, and that is happening again right now.
Looks like it mostly bounced between 4% and 5% for the 3 years before the crisis. Where was the substantial drop before the bottom fell out?
#4 The price of oil crashes. As I write this, the price of U.S. oil has dipped below $48 a barrel. But back in June, it was sitting at $106 at one point. As the chart below demonstrates, there is only one other time in history when the price of oil has declined by more than $50 in less than a year…
Oh, now I see Mitch's confusion, oil tanked after the crisis, just like interest rates did.
He somehow feels that because they've dropped now, that is going to cause a crisis? LOL!
Goldman Sachs, Citicorp, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, DeutscheBank, SocGen, all succumb to insolvency.
We'll have to revisit this thread in the next year.
I’ve noticed the same misplaced analysis on ‘cause and effect’ on oil/gas prices movements recently by other ‘experts’. I’m not economist, but it seems to me that the substantial rise in oil/gas prices back in the 2006/2007 time frame began to pinch consumer budgets which contributed to the start of mortgage delinquencies. It was only after the crisis hit and the ‘great recession’ was underway that oil/gas prices declined.
Oh, now I see Mitch’s confusion, oil tanked after the crisis, just like interest rates did.
He somehow feels that because they’ve dropped now, that is going to cause a crisis? LOL!
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Yes the drop in oil prices is a mitigating force to financial crises.