One third? Too high. Off the top of my head I’d make it less than 10%, taking into account the fact that people, especially Republicans give politically correct answers instead of what they really think,when being polled. Plus almost all referendums on gay marriage have come out against gay marriage,even including California and Oregon, bastions of liberalism.
California passed prop. 22 by 61% in 2000. It was struck down by the state SC. Then CA passed prop. 8 by 52% in 2008, which was struck down by federal judges. Forget the judges for a second. With actual voters the issue lost 9% in 8 years. In 2012 NC passed its amendment by 61%, and it was hailed as a great victory by many. But in reality all it did was match the CA of 12 years before. If you would have predicted that in 2000 you would have been called nutso.
Freegards