Cruz is my top choice.
Trump isn’t even on the radar since he is not a conservative and I don’t want a self promoting realityTV star in the White House.
If Trump is the GOP nominee I will vote for him in the general election, however he is way down on the list in the primaries.
Personally I doubt Trump will even make it through Iowa and New Hampshire. I think his shtick will get old and tiresome to all but his most devoted followers.
With your criteria, Ronald Reagan would never have been elected. You know - the guy who starred with the chip and hosted 20 mule team Borax shows? On the contrary - his Shtick, as you call it is what keeps people interested. He doesn’t say the same things over and over as the other candidates do. He hits his bullet points, but adds something new and refreshing with each speech. I can almost verbatim recite Ted Cruz’s stump speech. I realize they can’t have a new speech for each crowd, but it is monotonous.
That is not going to get old.